LTLS Freshwater Ecosystems ("LTLS-FE"): Analysis and future scenarios of Long-Term and Large-Scale freshwater quality and impacts

LTLS 淡水生态系统（“LTLS-FE”）：长期和大规模淡水质量和影响的分析和未来情景

• 批准号: NE/X015866/1
• 负责人: Victoria Bell
• 金额: $ 132.37万
• 依托单位: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX015866%2F1
• 关键词: LTLS; Freshwater; Ecosystems; FE; Analysis

Long Term Large Scale - Freshwater Ecosystems (LTLS-FE):Rivers in the United Kingdom have in the past and the present been subjected to a range of pressures due to the release of chemicals and by-products, such as domestic wastewater, acid rain, the application of nutrients and pesticides to soils, and the use of domestic products such as medicines. While some of these pressures (e.g. acid rain, wastewater discharges) appear to have eased over recent decades, others (e.g. pesticides, nutrients) remain and may be increasing. In addition to these pressures, climate change is also expected to impact on the quality of UK rivers, for example by leading to changes in anthropogenic chemical use, by changing the amount of water in rivers and thus how much water is available to dilute chemicals, by making storms and floods more or less frequent, and by changing the volume of chemicals washed into rivers from the land. Climate change could also influence freshwater biodiversity, for example by increasing the exposure of organisms to pulses of toxic chemicals during storms or by increasing the likelihood that UK rivers are invaded by alien species which outcompete native species.The quality and health of UK rivers are of great interest to many groups - the general public who rely on waters for recreation such as swimming and angling, to the regulators who are tasked with improving and then maintaining water quality, and to water companies who partly rely on rivers for drinking water supplies. It is therefore important that we try to understand as well as possible how water quality and health might be affected by future changes in the way society uses chemicals and water, and how these might be further affected by climate change.This is a complex problem, because the factors that drive river quality are many and they will vary over time and from place to place. This project will tackle the problem by developing a model that will use these drivers to predict how chemical inputs, river quality and river health will change in the context of different 'pathways', or scenarios of change in society and climate. By doing this, we will provide a range of 'projections' of future river quality and health. These projections will help scientists and policymakers to understand the main factors controlling river quality and health. This will help them to develop solutions to manage and ameliorate possible changes in the factors that influence river quality and health, with the goal of maintaining and improving the state of UK rivers in a changing world.As well as our projections of possible futures for UK river quality and health, we will make the data and model code available to all at the end of the project. This will provide other researchers with possibilities such as changing the mathematics of the model, adding new chemicals as they emerge, or applying the model to other countries and parts of the world.

长期大规模-淡水生态系统（LTLS-FE）：联合王国的河流在过去和现在都受到一系列压力，这是由于释放化学品和副产品，如家庭废水、酸雨、向土壤施用营养物质和杀虫剂以及使用家庭产品，如药品。虽然其中一些压力（如酸雨、废水排放）近几十年来似乎有所缓解，但其他压力（如农药、营养素）仍然存在，而且可能正在增加。除了这些压力，气候变化预计也会影响英国河流的质量，例如，通过导致人为化学品使用的变化，通过改变河流中的水量，从而改变有多少水可用于稀释化学品，通过使风暴和洪水更频繁或更少，以及通过改变从陆地冲入河流的化学品的数量。气候变化还可能影响淡水生物多样性，例如，在风暴期间，生物体暴露于有毒化学品脉冲的风险增加，或者英国河流被外来物种入侵的可能性增加，这些外来物种的竞争超过了本地物种。英国河流的质量和健康对许多群体都非常感兴趣--依赖沃茨进行游泳和钓鱼等娱乐的普通公众，对于负责改善和保持水质的监管机构，以及部分依赖河流供应饮用水的水务公司，因此，我们必须尽可能地了解未来社会使用化学品和水的方式的变化如何影响水质和健康，以及气候变化如何进一步影响水质和健康。这是一个复杂的问题，因为驱动河流质量的因素很多，它们会随着时间和地点的变化而变化。该项目将通过开发一个模型来解决这个问题，该模型将使用这些驱动因素来预测化学品投入、河流质量和河流健康在不同的“路径”或社会和气候变化情景下将如何变化。通过这样做，我们将提供一系列未来河流质量和健康的“预测”。这些预测将有助于科学家和决策者了解控制河流质量和健康的主要因素。这将帮助他们开发解决方案，以管理和改善影响河流质量和健康的因素的可能变化，目标是在不断变化的世界中保持和改善英国河流的状态。以及我们对英国河流质量和健康的未来可能的预测，我们将在项目结束时向所有人提供数据和模型代码。这将为其他研究人员提供可能性，例如改变模型的数学模型，在出现新化学品时添加新化学品，或将该模型应用于世界其他国家和地区。