MEZCAL - Methods for Extending the horiZontal Coverage of the Amoc Latitudinally and retrospectively

MEZCAL - 横向和回顾性扩展 Amoc 水平覆盖范围的方法

• 批准号: NE/Y004272/1
• 负责人: Helen Johnson
• 金额: $ 19.2万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FY004272%2F1
• 关键词: MEZCAL; Methods; Extending; horiZontal; Coverage

The AMOC is a large-scale ocean circulation system composed of currents that carry warm, shallow water northwards and return cold, deeper water southwards. The AMOC is crucial in maintaining the relatively mild winter climate of north west Europe. A shutdown of the AMOC would strongly impact European temperature and precipitation variability.Because of the AMOC's role in regulating the global climate system, several direct ocean observing programmes have been put in place to monitor the AMOC. In the North Atlantic, the two main observing arrays are the Rapid Climate Change Programme (RAPID) and the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) at 26N and 50-60N, respectively. While these programmes have transformed our understanding of changes in the AMOC, they are limited to single lines of latitude and have relatively short lifespans (two decades at most). These constraints prevent us from being able to understand changes on long (decadal to centennial) timescales or understand how the AMOC is connected across the latitudes where we don't have direct measurements. Further, the maintenance of the observing arrays is costly and there is no backup system in place in the event of instrumentation failure or loss.To overcome the limitations of the RAPID and OSNAP observing arrays, the oceanographic community has sought alternative solutions for monitoring the AMOC using cost-effective observing systems, like existing satellite and autonomous ocean robot data that have high spatial and temporal coverage. These alternative solutions for monitoring the AMOC have recently been trialled at a few places in the North Atlantic. At the same time, advances in machine learning and modelling methods are starting to prove useful for monitoring the AMOC from indirect measurements.The AMOC monitoring at RAPID and OSNAP will soon achieve 20- and 10- years worth of continuous measurements, respectively. The combination of these AMOC records with the recent developments in alternative AMOC monitoring methods means that the oceanographic community now has the tools in place to dramatically improve our ability to understand the AMOC across the North Atlantic Ocean over long time periods. Thus, MEZCAL will combine computational advances with the recent proven alternative methods for monitoring the AMOC to extend the coverage of AMOC observations across the North Atlantic and deliver a new framework that will make a step change in our understanding of AMOC variability. This project will also provide recommendations for how to build a sustainable AMOC monitoring system moving forward.

AMOC是一个大型海洋环流系统，由洋流组成，将温暖的浅水向北输送，并将较冷的较深的水向南返回。 AMOC 对于维持西北欧相对温和的冬季气候至关重要。 AMOC 的关闭将严重影响欧洲的气温和降水变化。由于 AMOC 在调节全球气候系统方面的作用，已经实施了多个直接海洋观测计划来监测 AMOC。在北大西洋，两个主要的观测阵列分别是北纬 26 度和北纬 50-60 度的快速气候变化计划 (RAPID) 和北大西洋副极地翻转计划 (OSNAP)。虽然这些计划改变了我们对 AMOC 变化的理解，但它们仅限于单纬度线，并且寿命相对较短（最多二十年）。这些限制使我们无法了解长期（十年到百年）时间尺度的变化，也无法了解 AMOC 在我们没有直接测量的纬度上如何连接。此外，观测阵列的维护成本高昂，并且在仪器故障或丢失时没有备用系统。为了克服 RAPID 和 OSNAP 观测阵列的局限性，海洋学界寻求使用经济高效的观测系统（例如具有高空间和时间覆盖范围的现有卫星和自主海洋机器人数据）来监测 AMOC 的替代解决方案。这些用于监测 AMOC 的替代解决方案最近已在北大西洋的一些地方进行了试验。与此同时，机器学习和建模方法的进步开始证明对于通过间接测量来监测 AMOC 是有用的。RAPID 和 OSNAP 的 AMOC 监测很快将分别实现 20 年和 10 年的连续测量。这些 AMOC 记录与替代 AMOC 监测方法的最新发展相结合，意味着海洋学界现在拥有适当的工具，可以显着提高我们长期了解北大西洋 AMOC 的能力。因此，MEZCAL 将把计算进步与最近经过验证的 AMOC 监测替代方法相结合，以扩大 AMOC 观测的覆盖范围整个北大西洋，并提供一个新的框架，使我们对 AMOC 变化的理解发生重大变化。该项目还将为如何构建可持续的 AMOC 监测系统提供建议。