PICANTE - Processes, Impacts, and Changes of ANTarctic Extreme weather

PICANTE - 南极极端天气的过程、影响和变化

• 批准号: NE/Y503290/1
• 负责人: Julie Jones
• 金额: $ 262.52万
• 依托单位: University of Sheffield
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FY503290%2F1
• 关键词: PICANTE; Processes; Impacts; Changes; ANTarctic

Extreme weather events, from heatwaves to flooding, are becoming stronger and more frequent in a visible manifestation of climate change. In Antarctica, extreme weather depletes the ice sheet through enhanced melting, which can raise global sea level, or strengthens the ice sheet through enhanced snowfall, which can lower global sea level.Antarctic extreme weather events (AEWE) are poorly understood and complex phenomena driven by factors across a range of scales. At the regional scale, they are driven by high and low-pressure systems, such as those seen on weather maps, and by atmospheric rivers - currents of air thousands of kilometres long - which bring warm and moist air from lower latitudes. In turn, these weather systems are driven by larger-scale patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the westerly winds encircling the Antarctic, which may themselves be affected by human-induced climate change.The PICANTE project aims to transform our understanding of the characteristics and drivers of AEWE, to disentangle the roles of natural climate variability and human influence, and to use this knowledge to predict the impact of future AEWEs on Antarctic climate and ice shelves. Ice shelves are particularly vulnerable to AEWE because they melt from both the bottom up (from warm ocean water) and the top down (from warm air). Thinner ice shelves are less stable and prone to collapse; this is important because ice shelves dam the flow of Antarctica's grounded ice into the ocean. Losing the ice shelves causes the ice sheet to slide into the sea faster, causing global sea level to rise.To achieve our aim, we have identified five objectives fit to the scope of the call.1) To compile a comprehensive dataset of AEWEs, their weather system drivers, and their local climate impacts using observations from Antarctica's weather station network, interpolated data from a wider network of observations (climate reanalysis) and simulations from climate models.2) To use these data and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence techniques, to investigate the relative contribution of the chain of drivers of AEWE across different scales. We will then use high resolution climate simulations, novel satellite observations and simulations of the ice sheet surface to connect these to local impacts on ice shelf stability.3) To understand the potential future distribution of AEWE and their impacts, we will use simulations of future climate under a range of possible scenarios together with new simulations of the ice sheet surface and ocean to investigate how changes to AEWE will affect future ice shelf stability.4) This will naturally lead to identifying model improvements needed to improve projections of AEWEs and their impacts, specifically in terms of local climate, ice surface and ocean models.5) Finally, we leave space to discover unprecedented extremes. Since the observed extremes from (1) can only represent a sample; more extreme events may be possible in the current climate, with potentially unprecedented impacts.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that Antarctica will warm by up to 5oC by the end of the century, and that extreme weather events will become stronger and more frequent. Understanding the causes and impacts of AEWE is therefore now critical if we are to understand the implications of these changes for the fate of the Antarctic ice sheet and global sea level rise.

在可见的气候变化体现中，从热浪到洪水泛滥的极端天气事件变得越来越强烈。在南极，极端天气通过增强的融化耗尽了冰盖，这可以提高全球海平面，或者通过增强的降雪增强冰盖，这可以降低全球海平面。对范围范围范围的因素驱动的反二极证极端天气事件（AEWE）是较少的理解和复杂的现象。在区域尺度上，它们是由高压系统（例如在天气图上看到的）和大气河流的驱动的，这是数千公里长的气流 - 从较低的纬度带来了温暖而潮湿的空气。反过来，这些天气系统是由较大尺度的攀岩变化模式驱动的，例如厄尔尼诺（Elniño/Southern）振荡和环绕着南极的西方风的强度，这本身可能会受到人类诱发的气候变化的影响。Picante项目旨在改变我们对人类自然的特征和驾驶员的理解，从而改变人类的特征和驾驶员，以实现人类的自然态度，并构成了人们的自然态度，并且是对人类的特征和驾驶员的影响。未来AEWES对南极气候和冰架的影响。冰架特别容易受到AEWE的影响，因为它们从底部（从温暖的海水）和自上而下（从温暖的空气中）融化。较薄的冰架不那么稳定，容易倒塌。这很重要，因为冰架将南极冰冰的流动流入海洋。 Losing the ice shelves causes the ice sheet to slide into the sea faster, causing global sea level to rise.To achieve our aim, we have identified five objectives fit to the scope of the call.1) To compile a comprehensive dataset of AEWEs, their weather system drivers, and their local climate impacts using observations from Antarctica's weather station network, interpolated data from a wider network of observations (climate reanalysis) and simulations from 2）使用这些数据和最先进的人工智能技术，以研究AEWE驱动因素跨不同尺度的相对贡献。然后，我们将使用高分辨率的气候模拟，新颖的卫星观测和冰盖表面的模拟，将这些观测与对冰架稳定性的影响联系起来。3）为了了解AEWE及其影响的潜在分布及其影响，我们将使用未来气候的模拟在一系列可能的场景下使用一系列可能的场景，以及对冰纸的新模拟的范围，并将其变化的新模拟能够确定冰的新模型。为了改善AEWES及其影响的项目，特别是在当地气候，冰面和海洋模型方面。5）最后，我们留出了空间来发现前所未有的极端。由于观察到的（1）的极端只能代表样本；在当前气候下可能会有更极端的事件，可能会产生前所未有的影响。政府间针对气候变化项目的小组间，到本世纪末，南极人将升至5oc，而极端的天气事件将变得更加强烈，更频繁。因此，如果我们要了解这些变化对南极冰盖和全球海平面上升的命运的含义，那么了解AEWE的原因和影响至关重要。