Quantifying earthquake hazard and enhancing resilience in India

印度人民生活在巨大的破坏性地震的威胁之下。该项目团队最近的研究表明，这种威胁的空间性质在印度各地的变化比以前所知的要大得多：地震多发的喜马拉雅山脉带在断层几何形状上存在显著的空间变化，而印度中部的“板内”包含许多以前未被识别的活动断层。这些断层的空间变化是至关重要的，因为它们控制着当地居民面临的地震危险的性质。因此，了解这些变化是建立抵御这种危险的能力的最有效方法，这种能力因地区而异。在这个项目中，我们将在之前研究的基础上，通过完成以下目标来改变我们对印度地震危险的理解，并增强对这种危险的抵御能力：目标1：我们将利用地震学、实地调查和第四纪测年来确定印度两个案例研究区域（包括喜马拉雅和板内区域）的广泛活动断层的位置、特征和未来地震潜力。我们将利用这些知识建立新的基于机器学习的方法来识别和描述全国范围内的活动断层，从而使我们能够对地震潜力进行新的全国范围的评估。目标2：我们将使用最近开发的模拟地震产生的地面震动的方法，结合目标1的结果，绘制未来潜在地面震动的空间变异性。因此，我们将能够制作最新的全印度灾害和风险模型和地图。这项工作将考虑断层几何形状和特征的空间变化，这在大多数国家和测绘机构使用的标准灾害测绘方法中尚未得到充分利用。目标3：我们将把对治理和决策过程的研究与与利益相关者（如灾害管理机构、公务员制度和当地社区）的研讨会结合起来，将目标2的成果转化为增强的复原力。由于印度各地地震灾害的性质各不相同（就大地震之间的时间间隔以及这些事件将产生的地面震动而言），因此提高恢复力的最有效方法也因地而异。通过研究社区吸收和立法的过程和障碍，我们将为每种类型的活动断层建立最有效的缓解策略。我们将特别关注州和社区之间的知识流动，以及消除这一过程中障碍的最有效方法。因此，我们的研究跨越了NERC和ESRC的权限，提高了我们对印度地震的科学理解，并将这些知识应用于建立恢复力。为了实现这一目标，我们组建了一支在印度工作的团队，作为印度与英国长期成功合作的一部分，他们有着良好的工作记录。我们提议的工作直接建立在作为我们正在进行的印度-英国合作的一部分进行的概念验证研究的基础上，这些研究表明我们有能力在该国开展基础地震科学并成功地与相关利益相关者接触。我们的愿景是，我们将开发并应用于印度各种活动断层的方法将成为如何描述地震危险和增强人口恢复力的世界领先范例，然后可以在世界上绝大多数地震易发地区复制。

The population of India lives under the threat of large and destructive earthquakes. Recent studies by this project team have revealed that the spatial nature of this threat varies significantly more across India than was previously known: the earthquake-prone Himalayan mountain belt contains significant spatial variations in fault geometries, and 'intraplate' central India contains numerous previously-unrecognised active faults. These spatial variations in faulting are critical because they control the nature of the earthquake hazard faced by local populations. Understanding these variations is therefore the most effective way to build resilience to this hazard, which will vary between regions. In this project we will build upon our previous research to transform our understanding of earthquake hazard in India, and enhance resilience to that hazard, by completing the following objectives: Objective 1: we will use seismology, fieldwork, and Quaternary dating to establish the locations, characteristics, and future earthquake potential of a wide range of active faults in two case study regions of India, including both the Himalaya and intraplate regions. We will use this knowledge to establish new machine-learning-based methods of identifying and characterising active faults throughout the country, thereby allowing us to make a new national-scale assessment of earthquake potential. Objective 2: we will use recently-developed methods of simulating the ground shaking generated by earthquakes, combined with our results from Objective 1, to map the spatial variability of potential future ground shaking. We will therefore be able to produce updated India-wide hazard and risk models and maps. This work will take account of the spatial variations in fault geometry and characteristics, which are not yet fully utilised in the standard hazard-mapping methodologies used by most nations and mapping agencies. Objective 3: we will combine research into governance and decision making processes with workshops with stakeholders (e.g. Disaster Management Agencies, the Civil Service, and local communities), to transform our results from objective 2 into increased resilience. Because the nature of the earthquake hazard varies across India (in terms of the time intervals between significant earthquakes, and the ground shaking those events will produce), the most effective methods for increasing resilience will also vary between locations. By researching the processes of, and barriers to, community uptake and legislation, we will establish the most effective mitigation strategies for each style of active faulting. We will particularly focus on the flow of knowledge between state and community level, and the most effective ways to remove barriers from that process. Our research therefore crosses the NERC and ESRC remits, improves our scientific understanding of earthquakes in India, and applies this knowledge to build resilience. To achieve this aim we have assembled a team that has a proven track record of working in India as part of long-term and successful India-UK collaborations. Our proposed work directly builds upon proof-of-concept studies undertaken as part of our ongoing India-UK collaborations, which have demonstrated our ability to undertake fundamental earthquake science in the country and to successfully engage with relevant stakeholders. Our vision is that the methodologies we will develop and apply to the diverse range of active faults in India will represent a world-leading example of how to characterise earthquake hazard and enhance population resilience, which can then be replicated in the vast majority of earthquake-prone regions worldwide.