Quantifying earthquake hazard and enhancing resilience in India

量化印度的地震危害并增强复原力

• 批准号: NE/Z503514/1
• 负责人: Alex Copley
• 金额: $ 103.43万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FZ503514%2F1
• 关键词: Quantifying; earthquake; hazard; enhancing; resilience

The population of India lives under the threat of large and destructive earthquakes. Recent studies by this project team have revealed that the spatial nature of this threat varies significantly more across India than was previously known: the earthquake-prone Himalayan mountain belt contains significant spatial variations in fault geometries, and 'intraplate' central India contains numerous previously-unrecognised active faults. These spatial variations in faulting are critical because they control the nature of the earthquake hazard faced by local populations. Understanding these variations is therefore the most effective way to build resilience to this hazard, which will vary between regions. In this project we will build upon our previous research to transform our understanding of earthquake hazard in India, and enhance resilience to that hazard, by completing the following objectives: Objective 1: we will use seismology, fieldwork, and Quaternary dating to establish the locations, characteristics, and future earthquake potential of a wide range of active faults in two case study regions of India, including both the Himalaya and intraplate regions. We will use this knowledge to establish new machine-learning-based methods of identifying and characterising active faults throughout the country, thereby allowing us to make a new national-scale assessment of earthquake potential. Objective 2: we will use recently-developed methods of simulating the ground shaking generated by earthquakes, combined with our results from Objective 1, to map the spatial variability of potential future ground shaking. We will therefore be able to produce updated India-wide hazard and risk models and maps. This work will take account of the spatial variations in fault geometry and characteristics, which are not yet fully utilised in the standard hazard-mapping methodologies used by most nations and mapping agencies. Objective 3: we will combine research into governance and decision making processes with workshops with stakeholders (e.g. Disaster Management Agencies, the Civil Service, and local communities), to transform our results from objective 2 into increased resilience. Because the nature of the earthquake hazard varies across India (in terms of the time intervals between significant earthquakes, and the ground shaking those events will produce), the most effective methods for increasing resilience will also vary between locations. By researching the processes of, and barriers to, community uptake and legislation, we will establish the most effective mitigation strategies for each style of active faulting. We will particularly focus on the flow of knowledge between state and community level, and the most effective ways to remove barriers from that process. Our research therefore crosses the NERC and ESRC remits, improves our scientific understanding of earthquakes in India, and applies this knowledge to build resilience. To achieve this aim we have assembled a team that has a proven track record of working in India as part of long-term and successful India-UK collaborations. Our proposed work directly builds upon proof-of-concept studies undertaken as part of our ongoing India-UK collaborations, which have demonstrated our ability to undertake fundamental earthquake science in the country and to successfully engage with relevant stakeholders. Our vision is that the methodologies we will develop and apply to the diverse range of active faults in India will represent a world-leading example of how to characterise earthquake hazard and enhance population resilience, which can then be replicated in the vast majority of earthquake-prone regions worldwide.

印度人民生活在大规模破坏性地震的威胁之下。该项目团队最近的研究表明，这种威胁的空间性质在印度各地的变化比以前所知的要大得多：地震多发的喜马拉雅山脉带在断层几何形状上存在显着的空间变化，印度中部的“板内”包含许多以前未被认识到的活动断层。断层的这些空间变化是至关重要的，因为它们控制着当地居民所面临的地震灾害的性质。因此，了解这些差异是建立抵御这一灾害的最有效方法，这一灾害在不同区域之间会有所不同。在这个项目中，我们将建立在我们以前的研究，以改变我们对印度地震灾害的理解，并通过完成以下目标来提高对这种灾害的恢复能力：目标1：我们将利用地震学、野外工作和第四纪测年来确定印度两个案例研究地区的大范围活动断层的位置、特征和未来地震的可能性，包括喜马拉雅和板内地区。我们将利用这些知识来建立新的基于机器学习的方法来识别和描述全国各地的活动断层，从而使我们能够对地震潜力进行新的全国范围的评估。目标二：我们将使用最近开发的模拟地震产生的地面震动的方法，结合我们从目标1中得到的结果，绘制未来潜在地面震动的空间变化图。因此，我们将能够制作最新的全印度灾害和风险模型和地图。这项工作将考虑到断层几何形状和特征的空间变化，大多数国家和测绘机构使用的标准灾害测绘方法尚未充分利用这些变化。目标三：我们将把对治理和决策过程的联合收割机研究与利益相关者（如灾害管理机构、公务员和当地社区）的研讨会结合起来，将目标2的成果转化为提高复原力。由于印度各地地震灾害的性质各不相同（就重大地震之间的时间间隔以及这些事件将产生的地面震动而言），因此提高弹性的最有效方法也会因地点而异。通过研究的过程中，和障碍，社区吸收和立法，我们将建立最有效的缓解战略，为每一种风格的活动断层。我们将特别关注国家和社区之间的知识流动，以及消除这一过程中障碍的最有效方法。因此，我们的研究跨越了NERC和ESRC的职权范围，提高了我们对印度地震的科学认识，并将这些知识应用于建立恢复力。为了实现这一目标，我们组建了一个团队，该团队在印度的工作记录已经得到证实，这是印度-英国长期成功合作的一部分。我们提出的工作直接建立在我们正在进行的印度-英国合作的一部分进行的概念验证研究的基础上，这些研究表明我们有能力在该国开展基础地震科学，并成功地与相关利益相关者进行合作。我们的愿景是，我们将开发并应用于印度各种活动断层的方法将成为世界领先的例子，说明如何减轻地震灾害并提高人口的复原力，然后可以在全球绝大多数地震多发地区复制。