Alcohol Outlets and Violence

在酒精预防和犯罪学文献的横截面地理研究中，观察到酒精出口的位置与暴力犯罪事件（如袭击）的发生率之间存在显着关联。 最近，酒精预防研究人员和犯罪学家已经提出了评估零售和住宅社区与犯罪率之间关系的补充模式。 其中包括探索人和地点与暴力犯罪的空间关系的地理统计方法，以及预测社区地区犯罪地点的理论方法。 今天看来，酒精出口和暴力之间的生态关联并不是偶然的;这种关系已经在许多研究中得到了复制，出现在许多不同的地理水平上，并有强有力的理论支持。 然而，目前对这种关系的研究局限于没有解决四个问题的程度：（1）在分析模型中有限地使用理论相关的协变量，（2）使用有偏的统计模型分析地理数据，（3）错误指定出口暴力关系，（4）缺乏纵向数据来评估时间顺序效应。目前的建议提出了处理这些问题的方法，并提出了从与犯罪潜力有关的理论模型中探索生态和个人期望的方法（即，地理区域内的犯罪概率）到因暴力袭击而被捕和受伤。 四项研究提出，检查出口密度和暴力之间的时空关系（研究1），商店密度、犯罪潜力、零售市场和暴力之间的生态相关性（研究2），极端出口密度对饮酒行为、问题和攻击性规范的个体水平影响（研究3），和个人层面的风险和保护因素有关的攻击（研究4）。 研究设计使得能够在很长一段时间（10年）内以及在加州州的不同地区（例如，1493邮政编码区）。本研究的短期目标是阐明出口密度变化与攻击率相关的机制，并建立探索环境特征（例如，出口密度）到个体攻击规范。 本研究的长期目标是提供经验数据，以指导基于环境的酒精相关犯罪预防计划。

Significant associations between the locations of alcohol outlets and rates of violent criminal events such as assaults are observed in cross-sectional geographic studies in the alcohol prevention and criminology literature. Recently, alcohol prevention researchers and criminologists have advanced complementary modes of evaluating the relationships between retail and residential community areas and crime rates. These include geostatistical methods to explore the spatial relationships of people and places to violent crime and the theoretical approaches that predict the locations of crime in community areas. Today it appears that the ecological association between alcohol outlets and violence is not an accidental one; the relationship has been replicated in a number of studies, appears on a number of different geographic levels, and has strong theoretical support. Current studies of this relationship, however, are limited to the degree that they do not address four problems: (1) the limited use of theoretically relevant covariates in analysis models, (2) the use of biased statistical models for the analysis of geographic data, (3) a mis-specification of the outlet-violence relationship, (4) the absence of longitudinal data for the evaluation of temporally ordered effects. The current proposal suggests ways to deal with each of these issues and presents methods to explore ecological and individual expectations from theoretical models relating crime potentials (i.e., probabilities of crime across geographic areas) to arrests and injuries due to violent assaults. Four studies are proposed that examine the spatiotemporal relationships between outlet densities and violence (Study number 1), ecological correlations between outlet densities, crime potentials, retail markets and violence (Study number 2), the individual level effects of extreme levels of outlet densities on drinking behaviors, problems and aggressive norms (Study number 3), and individual level risk and protective factors related to assaults (Study number 4). The study designs enable the examination of these effects over long periods of time (10 years) and across vastly different areas of the state of California (e.g., across 1493 zip code areas). The short-term goals of this study are to clarify the mechanisms relating changes in outlet densities to assault rates and establish empirical bases for exploring the relationships of environmental characteristics (e.g., outlet densities) to individual norms for aggression. The long-term goal of this study is to provide empirical data to guide environmentally based alcohol-related crime prevention programs.