Intelligent Transport Systems and Services: Informed Logistics

该项目将开发和证明使用基于代理的建模和复杂系统动力学来创建国家和区域货运远景规划、战略和规划的新方法。目标是创建并证明第一代工具集，该工具集将支持定义交通运输面临的日益困难的政策和投资选择。总体目标是应对DaSTS的挑战：一个同时提供经济生产力的低碳世界。这些选择得不到能够评估根本变化的工具的支持，包括国家和区域两级设计和规划选择中的行为决定因素及其相互作用。使用复杂系统思维的基于主体的建模现在提供了解决这个问题的前景，因为它正被成功地应用于其他领域。该项目具有创新性，因为公共部门规划者和私营部门公司无法使用运营数据来整合货运模式，以了解投资、监管、财政措施和规划之间的复杂战略互动。MDS多式联运(主要合作伙伴)可以获得与货运运营中感知的关键代理有关的运营数据：1.决定在哪里创建配送站点的开发商，该站点的规模，以及它应该是铁路还是水路连接；2.货主，可能是发送者或接收者，考虑到需要运输的货物矩阵，决定如何通过他/她可用的网络和仓库将货物从起源地最有效地运送到目的地；3.运输供应商，考虑到风险和库存成本问题，向货主提供总体成本最低的解决方案；4.码头和/或港口运营商，只有在涉及铁路或海上作业的情况下才相关，但需要考虑作为每一种货流的一种选择。考虑到MDST拥有大量数据，并通过LCP(合作伙伴)利用他们在物流方面的专业知识进行验证，中国证监会将使用这些信息定义货运代理规则。中国证监会预计将约谈政府关键政策制定者和行业合作伙伴企业的决策者，以确定政策选择的潜力和决策者可能的响应性。基于专有知识但扩展到货运新领域的基于代理的模型工具集将被开发。将创建一个经过验证的原型模型，旨在代表当前系统的操作，并将其动态扩展到未来，以衡量可能的临界点和低弹性的时间。然后，可以通过改变现有参数值和引入新的参数值来模拟各种政策干预。战略决定必须支持以下各项的量化和轻重缓急：能力投资决定、规划政策和土地使用、采用财政措施以纳入外部性的真实成本、潜在监管干预的影响以及私营和公共部门在货运和物流挑战中的作用。这些构成了政策干预措施，从而为货运创建了一个总体战略愿景，以满足碳排放和经济表现的双重目标。

This project will develop and prove the use of agent based modelling and complex systems dynamics to create a new approach to national and regional freight transport visioning, strategy and planning. The goal is to create and prove a first generation toolset that will support definition of the increasingly difficult policy and investment choices that transport faces. The overall goal is to respond to the DaSTS challenges: a low carbon world that also delivers economic productivity. These choices are not supported by tools that can evaluate radical change, including behavioural determinants in design and planning choices at both the national and regional levels and how they interact. Agent based modelling using complex systems thinking now offers the prospect of addressing this, since it is being successfully applied in other areas. This project is innovative as integrating the freight modes using operational data to understand the complex strategic interaction of investment, regulation, fiscal measures and planning is not available to public sector planners and private sectore companies. MDS Transmodal (lead partner) have access to operational data relating to the perceived key agents in freight operation: 1. the developer who decides where to create a distribution site, the scale of that site and whether it should be rail or water connected; 2. the cargo owner, who may be the sender or the receiver, who decides how to move goods most efficiently from origin to destination through the network and warehouses available to him/her, given the matrix of goods that need to be transported; 3. The Transport Supplier who will provide the least overall cost solution to the cargo owner, taking into account issues of risk and inventory cost; and 4. the terminal and/or port operator, relevant only where rail or sea operation is involved but will need to be considered as an option for every cargo flow. Using this information CSRC will define the agent rules for freight transport, given the vast volumes of data held at MDST and by validation at LCP (collaborating partner) using their expertise in logistics. CSRC anticipate interviewing key policy makers in the government and decision makers in industrial partner firms, to establish the potential for policy options and the likely responsiveness of decision makers.An agent based model toolset will be developed based on proprietary knowledge but extending into the new domain of freight transport. A validated prototype model will be created which aims to represent the operation of the current system and extend its dynamics into the future to gauge likely tipping points and times of low resilience. The various policy interventions can then the modelled by changing the values of existing parameters and by the introduction of new parameters. Strategy determination must support the quantification and prioritisation of: capacity investment decisions, planning policy and land use, the introduction of fiscal measures to incorporate the true costs of externalities, the impact of potential regulatory interventions and the role of the private and public sectors in the freight and logistics challenges. These form the policy interventions and so inform the creation of an overall strategic vision for freight transport that meets the twin goals of carbon and economic performance.