Crowd modelling: Game theory, implementation & validation

人群建模：博弈论、实施

• 批准号: 1835367
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1835367
• 关键词: Crowd; modelling; Game; theory; implementation

During the last decade, pedestrian modelling and simulation has become one of the key component of the design cycle in the civil engineering sector. Indeed, the most advanced and complex developments of train stations, airports, office buildings, hospitals or even entire cities involve a people flow study that aim to assess the quality and accessibility of the space from the point of view of its future users. These studies are performed by people flow experts such as the Smartspace team from Buro Happold Engineering and pedestrian simulation represents a key tool of the design process. Despite the fast growing need for always more challenging and complex analysis, state of the art pedestrian simulation software face crying limitations in terms of computational speed and agreement with the real-world. Buro Happold develops its own pedestrian simulation software that relies upon agent based models where pedestrians are modelled as individual particles. For more details about Buro Happold Engineering Smart Space Team, see http://www.burohappold.com/think-again/specialisms/smart-space/.Crowd safety and crowd management are important matters in our urban societies. To improve the efficiency of crowd safety and management procedures, reliable numerical models are needed. Numerical models are routinely used to improve the design of public places, such as terminals or walkways. However, the walking behavior of humans in highly crowded environment is still very poorly understood and many existing numerical models, which treat humans like physical particles, fail to provide a reliable and accurate account of pedestrian behavior. In this project, we propose to improve the modelling of pedestrian flows, analyse this theoretically and in real life problems, implementing it and validating against real data. The three basic pillars of the project are:- Improvements in Local Navigation modelling: Implementation and Analysis.- Improvements in Global navigation and planning modelling: Implementation and Analysis.- Validation with real data.Local navigation rules in the existing software for pedestrians are typically based on social force models or velocity-based model as in , we will improve these by incorporating rational behaviour in these social force models and by changing completely this paradigm with models based on optimizing the utility for each individual in the crowd. We propose to investigate a hierarchy of models which treat humans as rational agents who try to optimize their walking trajectory among moving obstacles (the other pedestrians) to reach their target. Global navigation and planning refer to the fact of including the effect of external signals in the control of a crowd or how to include the effect of the observed density in the global decision making of an individual. Optimal control approaches can be used to implement some of these ideas both to include external navigation fields and/or include rational behaviour of the individuals at larger spatial scales.One of main aims of this PhD project is to develop, validate and implement these new agent based models into Buro Happold existing software with the objective to improve its relevance and performance. The accuracy of the studied models will be assessed against quantitative criteria such as the relationship between the speed and density in a crowd. As a second and more adventurous and rewarding stage, the student would aim to improve upon the studied models and design a new pedestrian dynamic model that is both, more accurate and more efficient than the ones mentioned above.The research proposed may have direct impact in security and transport included in the EPSRC strategy: Transportation operations and management.

在过去的十年中，行人建模和模拟已成为土木工程领域设计周期的关键组成部分之一。事实上，火车站、机场、办公楼、医院甚至整个城市的最先进和最复杂的开发都涉及人流研究，旨在从未来用户的角度评估空间的质量和可达性。这些研究由Buro Happold Engineering的Smartspace团队等人流专家进行，行人模拟是设计过程的关键工具。尽管对更具挑战性和复杂性的分析的需求快速增长，但最先进的行人模拟软件在计算速度和与现实世界的一致性方面面临着严重的限制。Buro Happold开发了自己的行人模拟软件，该软件依赖于基于代理的模型，其中行人被建模为单个粒子。有关Buro Happold工程智能空间团队的更多详细信息，请参阅http://www.burohappold.com/think-again/specialisms/smart-space/.Crowd安全和人群管理是我们城市社会的重要问题。为了提高人群安全和管理程序的效率，需要可靠的数值模型。数值模型通常用于改善公共场所的设计，如航站楼或人行道。然而，在高度拥挤的环境中，人类的步行行为仍然是非常少的了解和许多现有的数值模型，它把人类作为物理粒子，无法提供一个可靠的和准确的行人行为。在这个项目中，我们建议改进行人流量的建模，从理论上和真实的生活中的问题进行分析，实施它并对真实的数据进行验证。该项目的三个基本支柱是：-改进本地导航建模：实施和分析。全球导航和规划建模的改进：实施和分析。用真实的数据进行验证。现有软件中针对行人的本地导航规则通常基于社会力模型或基于速度的模型，我们将通过在这些社会力模型中纳入理性行为并通过使用基于优化人群中每个个体的效用的模型完全改变这种范式来改进这些模型。我们建议研究一个层次的模型，将人类视为理性的代理人，试图优化他们的行走轨迹之间的移动障碍物（其他行人），以达到他们的目标。全局导航和规划是指在群体控制中包括外部信号的影响，或者如何在个体的全局决策中包括观察到的密度的影响。最优控制方法可以用来实现这些想法都包括外部导航领域和/或包括理性行为的个人在更大的空间scales.One这个博士项目的主要目的是开发，验证和实施这些新的代理为基础的模型到Buro Happold现有的软件，以提高其相关性和性能的目标。研究模型的准确性将根据定量标准进行评估，例如人群中速度和密度之间的关系。作为第二阶段，学生将致力于改进所研究的模型，并设计一个新的行人动态模型，该模型比上述模型更准确，更有效。所提出的研究可能会对EPSRC战略中的安全和运输产生直接影响：运输运营和管理。