No War, No Peace in the Niger Delta: Exploring the Functions of Violence within the Political Settlement Framework

我的研究考察了暴力在政治解决中的作用，以阐明战后政治（重新）解决后“没有战争，就没有和平”的共同经验。着眼于内部团体动态，将分析将尼日尔三角洲主要武装团体的前激进领导人纳入政治解决方案对管理暴力的影响。与文学中占主导地位的叙事相反，有人认为，某些形式的正在进行的军事活动并不体现精英选民关系的破裂。相反，它们是精英协定实体化过程的一部分。根据调查结果，应查明设计建设和平活动所涉政策问题。我的研究将通过研究尼日尔三角洲大赦与解除武装、复员和重返社会方案的情况，探讨与和平进程与政治解决之间的联系有关的问题。国际发展界日益认识到，包容性政治解决对于实现冲突的可持续退出至关重要，这与非洲和其他地区冲突后政治（重新）解决后的暴力循环不一致。在政治解决文献中，通常假设和平进程的谈判物质利益由精英分配给各自的组成群体，以确保忠诚和遏制暴力。然而，很少有系统的分析表明，武装团体内部究竟是如何达成和维持对解除武装和复员的支持的，以及精英讨价还价是如何对战斗人员涓涓细流并成为现实的。同样，人们也不太清楚这一过程与暴力的关系。本研究试图通过分析将尼日尔三角洲主要武装团体的前武装领导人纳入政治解决方案对通过叛乱团体内部政策管理暴力的影响来填补这一空白。它将通过观察这两个因素如何在结构上联系并由反叛团体的内部组织动态决定来探索精英交易的物质化与暴力使用之间的关系。成员之间的索赔和权利是如何组织的？内部等级制度和法律是如何构成暴力和非暴力行为的，又会对再分配产生怎样的影响？这些动态与大赦前有何不同？与民兵精英在成为政治解决方案的一部分时成为和平利益相关者的假设相反，本文将证明，在大赦期间，与冲突的政治经济相关联的利润和权力体系值得精英们维持。有助于维持一个得益于稳定不稳定局势的制度的各种形式的暴力行为继续得到奖励。在尼日尔三角洲的情况下，这种局势与石油的政治经济有关。该研究将利用数据收集，深入访谈以及历史分析来解开问题的复杂性。这种多方法的方法与三角测量方法相结合，不仅旨在扩大和加深对研究现象的理解，而且还旨在提高研究结果的准确性和有效性。此外，它的目的是遵循一种扎根理论的方法，在政治解决框架内诱导暴力概念化的理论进步。数据收集将包括二手文献、政策文件、发表的报告以及报纸和媒体分析。访谈数据将构成分析的关键部分。在海外实地工作期间，除了2019年3月至7月的小组讨论外，还将在尼日尔三角洲与主要武装团体成员进行半结构化访谈。

OVERVIEWMy research examines the functions of violence within political settlements to shed light on the common experience of "no war, no peace" following post-war political (re-)settlements. Looking at internal group dynamics, it will be analysed what implications the inclusion of ex-militant leaders of major armed groups in the Niger Delta into the political settlement have had for managing violence. In contrast to the dominant narrative in literature, it will be argued that certain forms of ongoing militant activities do not embody a breakdown of elite-constituency relationships. Instead, they are part of the materialization process of the elite pact. Based on the findings, policy implications regarding the design of peacebuilding activities shall be identified.CONTEXTMy research will address questions relating to the connection between peace processes and political settlements by looking at the case of the amnesty and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme in the Niger Delta. Growing recognition in the international development community that inclusive political settlements are crucial for enabling a sustainable exit from conflict is at odds with repeated cycles of violence following post-conflict political (re-)settlements in Africa as elsewhere. In the political settlement literature, it is commonly assumed that negotiated material benefits of peace processes are distributed by elites to their respective constituent groups to ensure allegiance and contain violence. Yet, there is little systematic analysis of how exactly support for disarmament and demobilisation is reached and maintained within armed groups and how elite bargains trickle down and materialize for combatants. Similarly, it is not well understood how this process relates to violence.This research seeks to fill this gap by analysing the implications that the inclusion of ex-militant leaders of major armed groups in the Niger Delta into the political settlement have had for managing violence through policies within insurgent groups. It will explore the relationship between the materialization of elite bargains and the use of violence by looking at how these two factors are structurally connected and determined by internal organizational dynamics of rebel groups. How are claims and entitlements organized between members? How do internal hierarchies and laws structure violent and non-violent behaviour and with what re-distributional impact? How do these dynamics differ from the pre-amnesty period? Against the assumption that militia elites become stakeholders of peace when being part of the political settlement, it will be demonstrated that a system of profit and power linked to the political economy of conflict is worth to be maintained for elites during the amnesty. Forms of violent behaviour contributing to the maintenance of a system that benefits from a situation of stable instability - linked to the political economy of oil in the case of the Niger Delta - continue to be rewarded. METHODOLOGYThe research will utilise data collection, in-depth interviews as well as historical analysis to unpack the complexity of the issue. This multi-methodological approach is aligned with the method of triangulation, not only aiming to widen and deepen the understanding of the study phenomenon, but also to increase the accuracy and validity of the research outcomes. Moreover, it aims to follow a grounded theory approach in inducing a theoretical advancement of the conceptualization of violence within the political settlement framework. Data collection will include secondary literature, policy documents, published reports as well as newspaper and media analysis. Interview data will form the key part of the analysis. During overseas fieldwork, semi-structured interviews will be conducted in the Niger Delta with members of major armed groups in addition to group discussions between March and July 2019.