Developing an Activity Based Travel Demand Model to Investigate the Impact of New Mobility Services

面对快速的城市化，城市交通网络面临压力，要求公共当局在提供高效的交通系统方面面临许多挑战。由于高度依赖私家车，空间有限，许多人的出行模式相似，拥堵和污染等问题变得更加严重。许多新技术的出现为通过创新的运输方式克服其中一些困难提供了机会。其中一个提议是移动即服务，这是在访问，支付和预订方面集成多种移动服务。尽管现实世界的证据有限，但许多支持者将MaaS视为应对城市交通挑战的银弹，因此需要开展更多工作来了解MaaS的潜在影响。本论文建立在当前关于MaaS的工作基础上，从关于可能的实施，商业生态系统和选择模型的讨论，到MaaS对个人旅行行为的影响。它扩展了当前最先进的基于活动的旅行需求建模方法，以纳入MaaS的动态。在分析MaaS的扩展之前，将首先制定反映当前情况的基线方案。一项新的调查将在伦敦进行，以了解对MaaS的偏好以及它如何影响旅行模式。研究结果将纳入拟议的建模方法，以了解应如何引入MaaS，以促进可持续的城市交通。将根据研究结果向主要利益攸关方提出政策和业务战略建议。

Facing rapid urbanisation, urban transport networks are put under strain requiring public authorities to confront a number of challenges in providing an efficient transportation system. Issues such as congestion and pollution have become more serious with a high reliance on private vehicles, limited space and similar travel patterns of many individuals. The emergence of many new technologies provides the opportunity to overcome some of these difficulties through innovative provision of transportation. One such proposal is Mobility-as-a-Service, an integration of multiple mobility services in terms of access, payment, booking. Despite limited real-world evidence, many proponents hail MaaS as a silver bullet for the challenges of urban transport, resulting in a need for more work to understand the potential impact of MaaS. This thesis builds on the current body of work regarding MaaS, moving from discussions about possible implementations, the business ecosystem and choice modelling regarding choice of subscription to MaaS to the impact MaaS could have on individuals' travel behaviour. It extends the current state-of-the-art activity-based travel demand modelling approaches to incorporate the dynamics of MaaS. A baseline scenario reflecting the current situation will first be developed, before extensions to analyse MaaS are included. A new survey will be conducted in London to understand preferences regarding MaaS and how it may affect travel patterns. The results will be integrated within the proposed modelling approach to understand how MaaS should be introduced to contribute to sustainable urban mobility. Recommendations for policies and business strategies will be provided to key stakeholders as a result of the research.