Understanding the Tide: A Comparative Analysis of Political Responses to Refugee Inflows

我的论文研究的是面对大量难民涌入时各国政府的反应。我将通过对世界三个不同地区--欧洲、中东和拉丁美洲--的比较研究，研究各国对难民流入反应不同的原因。欧洲目前的难民危机证明了欧洲共同庇护和移民制度的无效，特别是整个国际难民制度的无效。目前，没有任何法律或体制机制允许寻求庇护者有序和均匀地涌入安全国家。这不仅仅是因为人们逃离的冲突的性质，往往不允许部分受害者作出深思熟虑的反应。事实上，这在很大程度上是因为国际难民制度将绝大多数支持寻求庇护者的负担设定在地理上靠近人们逃离的国家的地区。我的研究将确定关键的独立变量，这些变量可以帮助我解释为什么特定地区的政府决定接收或不接收其领土内的难民。我的假设是，每个特定领域都对应着一组自变量。到目前为止，我已经确定了四个可能的独立变量，它们可能有助于解释为什么某些国家的政府在特定背景下比其他国家更容易接收难民：媒体对某一冲突的关注程度和质量；对难民收容国的中期社会和经济影响；目前向收容国的移民水平；以及派遣国和收容国政府之间的关系。应考虑在研究过程中添加或删除自变量。我的目的是解释一系列独立变量如何影响各国政府对难民涌入的反应。

My dissertation researches the response of governments confronted with considerable refugee inflows. I will investigate why countries react differently to refugee inflows in a comparative study of three different areas of the world: Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. The current refugee crisis in Europe has put into evidence the ineffectiveness of the European common asylum and migration system, in the specific, and of the whole international refugee system, in general. Presently, there is no legal nor institutional mechanism that permits an ordered and well-distributed inflow of asylum-seekers towards safe countries. This is due not simply to the nature of the conflicts from which people flee that very often do not allow for a well-thought response from part of their victims. In reality, this is mostly due to an international refugee system that sets the overwhelming majority of the burden of supporting asylum-seekers on the areas geographically close to the country people are fleeing. My research will identify key independent variables that can help me explain why governments in a specific area decide to accept, or not, refugees within their territory. My assumption is that to each specific area corresponds a set of independent variables. So far, I have identified four possible independent variables that might help explain why certain governments are more prone than others to accept refugees in a given context: the degree and quality of media attention given to a certain conflict; the medium-term perceived social and economic effects on the country hosting refugees; the current level of migration towards the hosting country; and the relation between the sending and hosting governments. The addition or removal of independent variables during the course of the research should be considered. My aim is to explain how a set of independent variables shapes the response of governments to refugee inflows.