ecadal variability of tropical cyclones: natural variability or anthropogenic influence

热带气旋的年代际变化：自然变化或人为影响

• 批准号: 1948482
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1948482
• 关键词: ecadal; variability; tropical; cyclones; natural

Questions: 1) can state-of-the art high-resolution GCMs (capable to resolve TCs and providing a sample size far larger than observations) simulate the decadal variability of TCs, based on credible process chains?2) is decadal variability caused by internal climate variability alone, or is there an anthropogenic influence, particularly via radiative forcing (aerosol and GHGs)?In this PhD output from new high resolution (25km mesh size or less) multi-decadal (10s to 100s of years, multi-ensemble member and multi-model) simulations with state of the art global coupled climate models will be used as foundations, to robustly answer those open questions. These models credibly simulate the structure and intensities of TCs, as well as their paths ("tracks") and interannual variability. This project will entail the use of existing (Horizon-2020 PRIMAVERA, HighResMIP) as well as novel simulations (performed by the student) to isolate the individual mechanisms controlling TC, now extending to decadal variability. Analysis will make use of sophisticated tools (e.g. the University of Reading "TRACK") and develop new diagnostics, in collaboration with Prof Vidale's projects, to unpick the importance of natural variability versus anthropogenic influence in controlling the variability of TCs.

问题：1)基于可信的过程链，最先进的高分辨率gcm（能够解析tc并提供远大于观测值的样本量）能否模拟tc的年代际变化？2)年代际变率是由内部气候变率单独引起的，还是存在人为影响，特别是通过辐射强迫（气溶胶和温室气体）？在这个博士产出的高分辨率（25km网格大小或更小）多年代际（10到100年，多集合成员和多模式）模拟与最先进的全球耦合气候模式将被用作基础，以有力地回答这些悬而未决的问题。这些模式可靠地模拟了tc的结构和强度，以及它们的路径（“轨迹”）和年际变率。该项目将需要使用现有的（Horizon-2020 PRIMAVERA, HighResMIP）以及新的模拟（由学生执行）来分离控制TC的单个机制，现在扩展到年代际变化。分析将利用复杂的工具（例如雷丁大学的“TRACK”），并与Vidale教授的项目合作，开发新的诊断方法，以揭示自然变化与人为影响在控制tc变化方面的重要性。

项目成果

Delayed Freshwater Export from a Greenland Tidewater Glacial Fjord

格陵兰潮水冰川峡湾淡水出口延迟

• DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-22-0137.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Physical Oceanography
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Sanchez, Robert;Slater, Donald;Straneo, Fiammetta
• 通讯作者: Straneo, Fiammetta

Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate, Vol. 2

气候变化中的飓风风险，卷。

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Loizou P.