Immigration and Changes in U.S. Fertility

移民和美国生育率的变化

• 批准号: 6536118
• 负责人: Calvin Gray Swicegood
• 金额: $ 20.59万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-06-01 至 2004-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6536118
• 关键词: Mexican Americans; United States; adolescence (12-20); adult human (21+); behavioral /social science research tag; birth; child (0-11); clinical research; data collection methodology /evaluation; family sizes; family structure /dynamics; female; fertility; generation difference; human data; human migration; human population growth; human population study; immigrant; longitudinal human study; male; public health; racial /ethnic difference; vital statistics

DESCRIPTION: After falling to a low of 1.74 in 1976, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the United States has since moved upward, reaching 2.08 in 1990, the highest figure recorded since the end of the baby boom. In 1998, the most recent year for which data are available, the TFR was 2.06. Over the same time span, the volume of immigration (both legal and unauthorized) to the United States has steadily increased, with the result that by the end of the 1990s immigration was adding about 900,000 net new residents to the population annually. Moreover, new immigrants have increasingly come from countries with higher levels of childbearing than the United States. As a consequence of these changes, nearly 1 in 5 U.S. births in 1998 (19.5 percent) occurred to a foreign-born mother. When these children of immigrants are considered together with immigrant children (foreign-born children of immigrant parents), nearly one-fourth of young children in the United States now have foreign-born parents. These trends raise significant scientific and policy-related questions about the relative contributions of immigration and immigrant fertility to overall U.S. fertility. Our proposed research has three broad objectives. First, we will use multiple data sources and estimation methods to measure period fertility (the total fertility rate) by nativity, national origin, generational status, and race/ethnicity. Many of these measures are unavailable from standard sources, and they are critical to an adequate assessment of levels and changes in immigrant fertility over the past thirty years and their contributions to other fertility changes. We will assess the consistency of our new fertility measures for immigrant subpopulations by comparing the results of several alternative estimation approaches, and we will gauge the adequacy of the approaches and (in those cases where vital statistics allow it) by comparing more aggregated measures to those based on vital statistics data. Second, we will carry out demographic decompositional analyses in order to assess the extent to which changes in nativity and immigrant national origin composition over the past thirty years have contributed both to changes in differential fertility by nativity, racial/ethnic status, and generational status and, through such shifts, to changes in overall U.S. period fertility. Our analysis of period fertility will also include investigation of the tempo and quantum components of TFR changes. Third, based on the fact that measures of cumulative fertility include both children of immigrants and immigrant children, we will carry out demographic decompositional analyses in order to assess the extent to which changes in nativity and national origin composition have contributed to changes in both of these components of differential and overall cumulative fertility. The results of these analyses, by shedding light on the relative contributions of compositional and rate changes to changes in the numbers of children of immigrants and of immigrant children, will help to clarify the direct and indirect implications of immigration for U.S. fertility rates and for trends in the numbers and composition of children.

在1976年降至1.74的低点后，总生育率 (TFR)在美国，自那以后一直在上升，1990年达到2.08， 这是婴儿潮结束以来的最高记录。1998年，最 在有数据可查的最近几年，总生育率为2.06。在相同时间 span，美国的移民数量（包括法律的和未经授权的） 在1990年代末， 移民为人口增加了约90万新居民 每年。此外，新移民越来越多地来自 生育率比美国高。由于这些 变化，1998年美国近五分之一的新生儿（19.5%）发生在 外国出生的母亲当这些移民的孩子被放在一起考虑时， 移民子女（移民父母在外国出生的子女）， 美国四分之一的儿童在国外出生， 父母这些趋势提出了重大的科学和政策问题 关于移民和移民生育率的相对贡献 美国整体生育率。我们提出的研究有三大目标。 首先，我们将使用多种数据源和估计方法来衡量 按出生地、原籍国、 世代地位和种族/民族。这些措施中有许多是不可用的 从标准来源，他们是至关重要的充分评估， 过去30年移民生育率的水平和变化及其 对其他生育率变化的贡献。我们将评估我们的一致性 通过比较以下结果，对移民亚人口的新生育率措施： 几种替代的估计方法，我们将衡量的充分性 （在生命统计允许的情况下） 将更综合的衡量标准与基于生命统计数据的衡量标准进行比较。 第二，我们将进行人口分解分析， 评估出生地和移民国籍的变化程度 在过去的30年里，这两种变化都是由 按出生地、种族/族裔地位和代际分列的生育率差别 地位，并通过这种转变，在美国整体生育期的变化。 我们对生育期的分析也将包括对生育速度的调查。 TFR的量子分量发生变化。第三，基于以下事实， 包括移民子女和移民子女 孩子们，我们将进行人口分解分析，以便 评估出生地和民族血统构成的变化程度 这两个组成部分的变化， 总累积生育率。这些分析的结果， 成分和速率变化对 移民子女和移民子女的数量，将有助于 阐明移民对美国生育率的直接和间接影响 儿童人数和组成的趋势。