Stress in paradise: Quantifying the frequency and impacts of ENSO driven droughts in tropical Pacific Island Nations

太平洋岛屿面积小且地处偏远，自然资源有限且脆弱，因此比大陆更容易受到气候灾害和压力的影响。太平洋岛国（PINS）也占据了受ENSO事件影响最直接的地球表面区域。13个岛国的3975个岛屿都能感受到厄尔尼诺现象的影响，影响到依靠降雨获取淡水和粮食安全的1290万人口。迄今为止，我们对干旱的机制、干旱的频率和持续时间，以及干旱在非洲干旱地区的生物物理效应的理解仍然缺乏量化。此外，岛屿类型的干旱经历也不同，因其位置、地形、地质历史和生态而异。干旱也被认为是人类在太平洋殖民的重要驱动力。热带太平洋的干旱频率可能会增加，但其具体影响在很大程度上仍是未知的。本博士旨在基于干旱频率的长期数据与基于过程的干旱建模的新耦合，在我们对干旱的理解中发展一个步骤变化。

Because of their small size and isolation, islands in the Pacific have limited and fragile natural resources, making them more vulnerable to climate hazards and stresses than are continents1. Pacific Island Nations (PINS) also occupy the region of the earth's surface most immediately impacted by ENSO events. The impacts of El Nino events are felt across 3,975 islands, 13 island nations, affecting a population of 12.9 million who rely on rainfall for freshwater and food security. To date our understanding of the mechanisms of drought, their frequency and duration, and their biophysical effects in PINs remain poorly quantified. In addition island types experience droughts differently, varying according to their location, topography, geological history and ecology. Droughts are also thought to have been important drivers of the human colonization of the Pacific2. Drought frequency is likely to increase in the tropical pacific but again its specific impacts are largely unknown. This PhD seeks to develop a step change in our understanding of droughts based on novel coupling of long term data on drought frequency with process based drought modelling.