Climate driven mismatches in fruit, pest and natural enemy phenology to mitigate crop damage

气候影响着作物开花、结实和收获等关键事件的时间，也影响着作物病虫害及其天敌的高峰丰度和发生。气候变化可能会改变生物体生命周期事件的时间和持续时间，导致“物候不匹配”或活动周期延长，从而对可持续作物生产产生影响。本博士将探索气候变化对病虫害防治的影响，这被确定为关键的行业需求。英国梨园为本研究提供了一个理想的模式系统，因为：1.梨只有一种优势害虫(梨吸虫-木虱)，它对大多数批准的杀虫剂都有抗药性。梨吸浆器的危害是由采食汁液和蜜露引起的煤烟堆积和过早落叶造成的，是英国梨生产中经济损失的一个重要来源，产量低于其他气候相似的欧洲国家。梨小食心虫为数不多的关键天敌(花角虫-Anthocoris nem alis、欧洲小食心虫-耳纹夜蛾、七星瓢虫和入侵的异色瓢虫)。NIAB EMR有关于梨树害虫和天敌的优秀现有数据，包括3个果园7年的每周数据，以及15个果园3年的数据。他们还保存着从1936年开始的梨品种的开花开始和持续时间的数据库。英国气象局的UKCP18项目提供了一系列未来情景下英国的气候预测。这项博士学位的目的是利用现有数据来模拟三营养相互作用，收集田间数据来验证模型，确定未来气候条件下梨种植者的生产风险，并探索减少和减轻已确定风险的选择。

Climate influences timing of key events including crop flowering, seed set, and harvest, but also the peak abundance and occurrence crop pests and their natural enemies. Changing climate may alter the timing and duration of organisms' life-cycle events, leading to 'phenological mismatches' or prolonged activity cycles that have consequences for sustainable crop production.This PhD will explore the impacts of climate change on pest control, identified as a key industry need. UK pear orchards provide an ideal model system for this study because;1. Pears have one, dominant pest (pear sucker -Psylla pyri), which is resistant to most approved insecticides.2. Damage by pear sucker, caused by sap feeding and honeydew causing sooty mound and premature leaf drop, is a substantial source of economic loss in UK pear production, with yields below other European countries with similar climates.3. Pear sucker has a small number of key natural enemies (Anthocorid bug - Anthocoris nemoralis, European earwig - Forficula auricularia and ladybirds native 7-spot - Coccinella septempunctata, and invasive Harlequin - Harmonia axyridis).4. Ample pear orchards are available for the study including preexisting insect count for 18 sites.NIAB EMR have excellent existing data on pear pests and natural enemies including weekly year-round data for 7 years from 3 orchards, and data collected for 3 years from 15 orchards. They also hold the database for onset and duration of flowering of pear cultivars from1936 onwards. Climate predictions for the UK under a range of future scenarios are available from the Met office's UKCP18 projections.The aim of this PhD will be to utilize existing data to model tri-trophic interactions, collect field data to validate the models, identify production risks for pear growers under future climate conditions and explore options for reducing and mitigating identified risks.