Towards data-driven policy development: the case of London's built cycling infrastructure

2013年，9.13亿英镑的资金被分配用于伦敦自行车基础设施的投资。其中大部分-包括引导安静的道路，受保护的自行车高速公路和伦敦的自行车横轨-于2016年夏天开放。主要目标：使骑自行车成为日常生活的一部分[...]这是人们很少想到的[…]和]每个人都感到舒适的事情“（大伦敦管理局，2013年）。传统上，评估此类干预措施的尝试可能依赖于描述 * 声称 * 行为变化的调查数据或来自自动交通计数器的描述基础设施占用率的高级数据。前者往往是昂贵的收集和遭受众多该项目将使用新的大规模观测数据集--来自伦敦的自行车共享、地铁和公交网络，来自路线规划服务，（CycleStreets.net）、用户贡献和社交媒体数据--以描述干预前后全市骑自行车行为的变化。至关重要的是，它将确定当前投资对行为影响的丰富细节，并在不确定性下对未来投资的影响做出量化估计。

In 2013, £913m of funds was allocated over 10 years for investment in London's cycling infrastructure. Much of this - including guided quietways, protected cycle superhighways and London's crossrail for the bike - opened in summer 2016. The chief objective: to make cycling 'a normal part of everyday life [...] something people hardly think about [...and] something everyone feels comfortable doing' (Greater London Authority 2013).Traditionally, attempts to evaluate such interventions might rely on survey data describing changes in *claimed* behaviour or high-level data from Automatic Traffic Counters describing infrastructure occupancy. The former are often expensive to collect and suffer from numerous (well-documented) biases and the latter are too high-level to capture more subtle changes in behaviour.This project will instead use new, large-scale observational datasets - from London's bikeshare, underground and bus network, from route planning services (CycleStreets.net), user-contributed and social media data -- to describe changes in city-wide cycling behaviours pre- and post- the intervention. Crucially, it will identify rich detail around the impact of current investment on behaviour and contribute quantified estimates, under uncertainty, around the impact of future investment.