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The impact of atmosphere-wave-ocean coupling on extreme surface wind forecasts

大气-波浪-海洋耦合对极端地面风预报的影响

基本信息

批准号：
2109534
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2109534
关键词：
impact atmosphere wave ocean coupling

项目摘要

Skilful weather and climate forecasts are vital for protecting lives and livelihoods and managing the effects of climate change. New capabilities in the use of observations, convective-scale numerical weather prediction models (models capable of representing individual convective clouds), coupled modelling (coupling between models of the atmosphere and ocean, wave or land surface models) and ensemble prediction systems (multiple, equally likely, forecasts of the same event to quantify probability and uncertainty) can improve weather forecasts and so improve early warnings. Our project will contribute to improved prediction of localised extreme wind speeds and gusts using a new convective-scale coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model. The aim of this project is to determine whether and how atmosphere-wave-ocean coupling improves surface wind speed and gust forecasts associated with extratropical cyclones through improved boundary layer characteristics Our CASE partner is the Met Office and our collaboration is with the Environmental Prediction Development Team, part of Weather Science. This project will exploit the new UK Environmental Prediction (UKEP) regional coupled system that was developed by this team. The UKEP system is the first convective-scale coupled model for the UK. Extratropical cyclones (also known as winter storms, windstorms, or low-pressure depressions) are a major wind hazard for the UK. We will work with our Met Office collaborators to determine whether this UKEP system can yield improved forecasts of surface winds (and gusts) associated with extratropical cyclones and, if so, the reasons why this occurs.

熟练的天气和气候预报对于保护生命和生计以及管理气候变化的影响至关重要。在利用观测、对流尺度数值天气预报模型（能够代表单个对流云的模型）、耦合建模（大气模型与海洋、波浪或陆地表面模型之间的耦合）和集合预测系统（对同一事件进行多种同等可能的预测，以量化概率和不确定性）方面的新能力可以改进天气预报，从而改进预警。我们的项目将有助于改进预测局部极端风速和阵风使用一个新的对流尺度耦合大气-波浪-海洋模式。该项目的目的是确定大气-波浪-海洋耦合是否以及如何通过改善边界层特性来改善与热带气旋相关的表面风速和阵风预报我们的CASE合作伙伴是气象局，我们的合作是与环境预测开发团队，天气科学的一部分。该项目将利用该团队开发的新的英国环境预测（UKEP）区域耦合系统。UKEP系统是英国第一个对流尺度耦合模式。温带气旋（也称为冬季风暴、风暴或低压低气压）是英国的主要风害。我们将与英国气象局的合作者合作，确定这个UKEP系统是否可以改进与温带气旋相关的地面风（和阵风）的预报，如果可以，请说明发生这种情况的原因。