The impact of the UK Government's Universal Credit (UC) programme on labour markets and wider social/economic outcomes

英国政府的普遍信贷 (UC) 计划对劳动力市场和更广泛的社会/经济成果的影响

• 批准号: 2117544
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2117544
• 关键词: impact; UK; Government; Universal; Credit

This PhD, fully funded by the ESRC in collaboration with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, will evaluate the impact of the UK Government's Universal Credit (UC) programme on labour markets and wider social/economic outcomes. UC is the UK Government's flagship change in social security policy, and is scheduled to reach full rollout by the end of 2018, and eventually - once tax credit and other benefit claimants are added to the system - some 7 million families are expected to receive UC. A key element of this set of reforms is the streamlining of a number of different benefits that are available into a single UC. Other elements of these reforms include paying housing benefit to tenants rather than directly to landlords, and moving from a fortnightly payment schedule to a monthly payment schedule. These reforms come at a time when the UK economy is struggling for growth, inflation is trending upwards and average real incomes are shrinking. As the recent JRF report (UK poverty 2017') shows, the reduction in poverty in the UK seen over the past 20 years are in danger of being reversed. Understanding the role that welfare reform plays in this narrative is crucial. Research Questions and Methodology There are several key research questions that will be addressed in this PhD: 1) What impact has the rollout of UC had on local labour market outcomes, such as unemployment and labour market participation? I will consider the poverty experience of those 'in work' as well as those 'out of work' 2) What impact has UC had on household finances, for example through earnings and unsecured debt? 3) Looking more widely at individual wellbeing, has the rollout of UC increased anti-depressants descriptions, the use of foodbanks or crime rates? This PhD will result in at least three identified contributions to the economics literature, which will be targeted at top general interest and field journals. In addition, this work will be incorporated into a series of non-technical summary papers which will be released by the JRF and the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) at the University of Strathclyde. Given the substantial public interest in understanding the impacts of the rollout of UC, it is anticipated that the evaluation of this programme outlined will generate significant interest, in particular from the UK Government as they consider further welfare reform. Furthermore, with welfare powers being devolved to the Scottish Parliament, there is scope for action to be taken at a devolved level in response to the evidence base that this study will provide.These questions will be addressed by using a robust empirical approach known as "difference-in-difference regression", which can isolate the effects of the policy from confounding factors (i.e. economic climate, social attitude etc.). This approach is made possible by the fact that UC is being enrolled gradually, thereby providing an opportunity for comparison between 'treated' areas (where UC has been implemented) and 'controlled' areas (UC yet to be implemented).TimetableIn year 1 I will be gaining familiarity with the literature, the empirical methods that will be used and working to construct the key earnings data from the ONS and HMRC microdata (this is anticipated to take between 3 and 6 months). The next 6 months of the PhD will focus on the remaining data collection and the implementation of the empirical strategy for the first paper. By the end of year 1 it is anticipated I will have some initial results for discussion and presentation at the Scottish Graduate Programme PhD conference in January 2020. I will then work to refine these results in response to feedback and produce a draft of their first chapter. The second and third chapters will focus on evaluating the impact of the UC rollout on other, wider, social outcomes such as GP prescribing of antidepressants, foodbank use, and crime. These chapters will be completed in years 2 and 3 respectively.

该博士学位由ESRC与Joseph Rowntree基金会合作全额资助，将评估英国政府的通用信贷（UC）计划对劳动力市场和更广泛的社会/经济成果的影响。UC是英国政府在社会保障政策方面的旗舰变革，计划于2018年底全面推出，最终-一旦税收抵免和其他福利申请人加入该系统-预计约有700万家庭将获得UC。这一系列改革的一个关键要素是将许多不同的福利精简到一个单一的UC中。这些改革的其他内容包括向租户而不是直接向房东支付住房福利，以及从每两周支付一次改为每月支付一次。这些改革是在英国经济为增长而苦苦挣扎、通胀呈上升趋势、平均真实的收入萎缩之际进行的。正如最近的JRF报告（英国贫困2017年）所显示的那样，过去20年来英国贫困人口的减少有被逆转的危险。理解福利改革在这一叙事中所扮演的角色至关重要。研究问题和方法有几个关键的研究问题，将在这个博士解决：1）有什么影响UC的推出对当地劳动力市场的结果，如失业和劳动力市场参与？我将考虑那些"工作“和”失业“的人的贫困经历2）UC对家庭财务有什么影响，例如通过收入和无担保债务？3)从更广泛的角度来看个人幸福，UC的推出是否增加了抗抑郁药的描述，食品银行的使用或犯罪率？这个博士学位将导致至少三个确定的贡献，经济学文献，这将是针对顶级的一般利益和领域期刊。此外，这项工作将被纳入一系列非技术性摘要文件，这些文件将由JRF和斯特拉斯克莱德大学Allander研究所（FAI）的Fraser发布。考虑到公众对了解UC推出的影响有很大的兴趣，预计对概述的这一方案的评估将产生很大的兴趣，特别是英国政府，因为他们考虑进一步的福利改革。此外，随着福利权力下放到苏格兰议会，有行动的余地，在下放的水平，以回应本研究将提供的证据基础。这些问题将通过使用一个强大的实证方法被称为“差异中的差异回归”，它可以隔离的影响，从混杂因素（即经济气候，社会态度等）的政策来解决。这种方法之所以成为可能，是因为UC正在逐步入组，从而提供了在“治疗”区域之间进行比较的机会（已实施UC）和“受控”区域（UC尚未实施）。时间表在第1年，我将熟悉文献，将使用的经验方法，并努力从国家统计局和HMRC的微观数据构建关键的收益数据（预计需要3至6个月）。接下来的6个月将专注于剩余的数据收集和第一篇论文的实证策略的实施。到今年1年底，预计我将在2020年1月的苏格兰研究生项目博士会议上讨论和介绍一些初步结果。然后，我将根据反馈改进这些结果，并编写第一章的草稿。第二章和第三章将重点评估UC推出对其他更广泛的社会结果的影响，例如抗抑郁药的全科医生处方，食品银行的使用和犯罪。这两章将分别在第二年和第三年完成。