Improving the accuracy of entomological measures of risk for vector borne diseases

蚊子传播的疾病是一个重大的全球健康问题。尽管大幅下降，但疟疾仍然是全球死亡的主要原因（2015年死亡730，500人），登革热相关死亡率日益令人担忧，从2005年到2015年增加了48.7%。减少病媒与人之间相互作用的干预措施是疟疾流行率和发病率明显下降的关键。然而，对伊蚊传播疾病的病媒控制方法进行的随机对照试验显示出不同的效果;驱虫蚊帐和室内滞留喷洒对登革热风险没有显著影响。按蚊和伊蚊对杀虫剂的抗药性已经在许多环境中被发现。因此，评估预防病媒-人相互作用的干预措施的有效性是公共卫生的优先事项，昆虫接种率（EIR），或每人每年平均感染叮咬次数，主要取决于病媒年龄、病毒或寄生虫的外源潜伏期（EIP）以及病媒叮咬行为。本项目将采用模拟方法，以确定环境变化和干预方案对环境影响报告的影响以及环境影响报告变化的机制。

Mosquito-borne diseases are a significant global health problem. Despite large declines, malaria remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide (730,500 deaths in 2015), and, dengue-associated mortality is a growing concern, increasing 48.7% from 2005-2015. Interventions to reduce vector-human interactions have been key to the observed decline in malaria prevalence and incidence. However, randomised controlled trials of vector-control methods for Aedes-transmitted diseases have shown variable efficacy; both ITNs and indoor residual spraying had no significant impact on dengue risk. And insecticide resistance in anopheline and Aedes mosquitoes has been identified in numerous settings. Evaluating the efficacy of interventions that prevent vector-human interactions is therefore a public health priority.The entomological inoculation rate (EIR), or average number of infectious bites per person per year, is primarily dependent on the vector age, extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the virus or parasite and vector biting behaviour. This project will adopt a modelling approach in order to identifying the impacts of environmental change and intervention programs on the EIR and the mechanisms through which EIR changes.