Cognitive Dissonance, Overconfidence, and Merger Outcome

认知失调是指个体同时持有两种或两种以上相互矛盾的信念时所经历的心理压力，其结果是感受到在认知之间产生和谐关系以减少不和谐的压力。尽管并购是一家公司可以做出的最关键的决策之一，但有关金融领域认知失衡的文献仍处于初级阶段。因此，我建议将Festinger的认知不和谐理论与金融文献相结合，并通过一个理论框架将其应用于美国和英国的并购，以进一步理解认知不和谐、过度自信与合并结果之间的传递机制。利用CEO的能力、自尊/自恋理论和“显露信念”理论等技巧，可以量化认知失调和过度自信。因此，这将允许建立一个更高级的理论模型框架，在其中理解认知不和谐的作用，它与过度自信的相互作用，以及对合并结果的影响。在当今的经济环境下，鉴于36%的CEO仍有很高的并购胃口，而且职业晋升、薪酬和奖金的很大比例与成功完成并购有关，这一点势在必行。

Cognitive dissonance is the psychological stress experienced by anindividual who simultaneously holds two or more contradictorybeliefs and, as a result, feels pressure to produce consonant relationsamong cognitions to reduce dissonance. The literature whichamalgamates cognitive dissonance within finance is in its preliminarystages despite mergers and acquisitions being one of the most pivotaldecisions a company can make. Therefore, I propose coalescingFestinger's cognitive dissonance theory with financial literature andapplying it to US and UK mergers via a theoretical framework tofurther understand the transfer mechanism between cognitivedissonance, overconfidence, and merger outcome. Using techniquesexploiting CEO competencies, self-esteem/narcissism theories, and'revealed beliefs' argument would allow cognitive dissonance andoverconfidence to be quantified. Consequently, this would allow forthe establishment of a more advanced theoretical modellingframework in which to understand the role of cognitive dissonance,its interaction with overconfidence, and the effects on mergeroutcome. This is imperative in today's economic climate given that36% of CEOs still have a high M&A appetite and a large proportionof career advancement, salary, and bonus is linked to successfulcompletion of M&As.