Cognitive Dissonance, Overconfidence, and Merger Outcome

认知失调、过度自信和合并结果

• 批准号: 2213606
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Durham University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2213606
• 关键词: Cognitive; Dissonance; Overconfidence; Merger; Outcome

Cognitive dissonance is the psychological stress experienced by anindividual who simultaneously holds two or more contradictorybeliefs and, as a result, feels pressure to produce consonant relationsamong cognitions to reduce dissonance. The literature whichamalgamates cognitive dissonance within finance is in its preliminarystages despite mergers and acquisitions being one of the most pivotaldecisions a company can make. Therefore, I propose coalescingFestinger's cognitive dissonance theory with financial literature andapplying it to US and UK mergers via a theoretical framework tofurther understand the transfer mechanism between cognitivedissonance, overconfidence, and merger outcome. Using techniquesexploiting CEO competencies, self-esteem/narcissism theories, and'revealed beliefs' argument would allow cognitive dissonance andoverconfidence to be quantified. Consequently, this would allow forthe establishment of a more advanced theoretical modellingframework in which to understand the role of cognitive dissonance,its interaction with overconfidence, and the effects on mergeroutcome. This is imperative in today's economic climate given that36% of CEOs still have a high M&A appetite and a large proportionof career advancement, salary, and bonus is linked to successfulcompletion of M&As.

认知失调是个体同时持有两个或多个相互矛盾的信念时所经历的心理压力，因此感到有压力在认知之间建立一致的关系以减少失调。尽管并购是公司可以做出的最关键的决策之一，但融合金融领域认知失调的文献仍处于初级阶段。因此，我建议将费斯廷格的认知失调理论与金融文献结合起来，通过理论框架将其应用于美国和英国的并购，以进一步理解认知失调、过度自信与并购结果之间的传递机制。使用利用首席执行官能力、自尊/自恋理论和“显露信念”论证的技术，可以量化认知失调和过度自信。因此，这将有助于建立一个更先进的理论模型框架，以了解认知失调的作用、其与过度自信的相互作用以及对合并结果的影响。在当今的经济环境下，这一点势在必行，因为 36% 的 CEO 仍然对并购抱有很高的兴趣，而且很大一部分职业晋升、薪资和奖金与并购的成功完成相关。