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Scalable climate change adaptation decision support pathways for UK higher education estates

英国高等教育机构可扩展的气候变化适应决策支持途径

基本信息

批准号：
2239005
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2239005
关键词：
Scalable climate change adaptation decision

项目摘要

In the UK, a continued upward trend in global greenhouse gas emissions could see hot sunny day temperatures rise between 3.7C to 6.8C by 2070, accompanied by a greater frequency of hot spells. The impact of the urban heat island, exasperating the warming effect experienced in many large cities, further amplifies the risks that climate change presents to urban fabric and inhabitants. For higher education (HE) environments, the challenge is to maintain high indoor environmental quality standards whilst mitigating increased cooling loads under future climates. This research works towards the development of a climate change adaptation decision-support framework for urban campus-scale integration of low-carbon climate change adaptation strategies into the HE building stock. The use of an evolutionary algorithm (NSGA-ii) and agglomerative hierarchical clustering will aid rapid optimisation of active and passive climate change adaptation design strategies according to life-cycle carbon impact, life cycle cost and future thermal performance. Data-driven optimisation outcomes will be evaluated against stakeholders' values through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) process, with the combined NSGA-ii-MCDA approach forming the late iteration of the climate change adaptation decision-support framework. Through integrating stakeholders' values within a rapid data-driven approach, the framework aims to account for real-world design requirements and conflicts within urban HE estates. The work will aim to improve understanding of the influence of life-cycle impact on the suitability of climate change adaptation pathways for the HE sector. Research outcomes have potential application in early-stage architectural design practice and management of HE estates.

在英国，全球温室气体排放量的持续上升趋势可能会导致到2070年炎热的晴天气温上升3.7摄氏度至6.8摄氏度，伴随着更频繁的高温天气。城市热岛的影响加剧了许多大城市经历的变暖效应，进一步加大了气候变化对城市结构和居民的风险。对于高等教育（HE）环境，挑战是保持高室内环境质量标准，同时减轻未来气候下增加的冷负荷。本研究致力于开发一个气候变化适应决策支持框架，用于将低碳气候变化适应战略融入高等教育建筑群的城市校园规模整合。使用进化算法（NSGA-ii）和凝聚层次聚类将有助于快速优化主动和被动的气候变化适应设计策略，根据生命周期的碳影响，生命周期成本和未来的热性能。将通过多标准决策分析进程，对照利害关系方的价值评估数据驱动的优化结果，并将NSGA-ii-MCDA结合起来，形成气候变化适应决策支持框架的后期迭代。通过将利益相关者的价值纳入快速数据驱动的方法中，该框架旨在考虑城市高等教育地产中的现实设计要求和冲突。这项工作的目的是提高对生命周期影响对高等教育部门适应气候变化途径的适宜性的影响的认识。研究成果对高等教育地产的前期设计实践和管理具有潜在的应用价值。