Scalable climate change adaptation decision support pathways for UK higher education estates

在英国，全球温室气体排放量的持续上升趋势可能会使炎热的晴天气温在2070年之前上升到3.7摄氏度到6.8摄氏度，同时伴随着更频繁的炎热天气。城市热岛的影响激怒了许多大城市经历的变暖效应，进一步放大了气候变化给城市结构和居民带来的风险。对于高等教育(HE)环境，挑战是保持较高的室内环境质量标准，同时减轻未来气候下增加的冷负荷。这项研究致力于开发一个气候变化适应决策支持框架，用于城市校园范围内将低碳气候变化适应战略整合到高等教育建筑库存中。使用进化算法(NSGA-II)和凝聚层次聚类将有助于根据生命周期碳影响、生命周期成本和未来热性能快速优化主动和被动气候变化适应设计策略。数据驱动的优化结果将通过多标准决策分析(MCDA)过程对照利益攸关方的价值进行评估，NSGA-II-MCDA的组合方法形成了气候变化适应决策支持框架的后期迭代。通过将利益相关者的价值观整合到快速的数据驱动方法中，该框架旨在考虑到现实世界中的设计要求和城市HE产业内的冲突。这项工作的目的是提高对生命周期影响对气候变化适应途径是否适合高等教育部门的影响的理解。研究成果对HE屋苑的早期建筑设计实践和管理具有潜在的应用价值。

In the UK, a continued upward trend in global greenhouse gas emissions could see hot sunny day temperatures rise between 3.7C to 6.8C by 2070, accompanied by a greater frequency of hot spells. The impact of the urban heat island, exasperating the warming effect experienced in many large cities, further amplifies the risks that climate change presents to urban fabric and inhabitants. For higher education (HE) environments, the challenge is to maintain high indoor environmental quality standards whilst mitigating increased cooling loads under future climates. This research works towards the development of a climate change adaptation decision-support framework for urban campus-scale integration of low-carbon climate change adaptation strategies into the HE building stock. The use of an evolutionary algorithm (NSGA-ii) and agglomerative hierarchical clustering will aid rapid optimisation of active and passive climate change adaptation design strategies according to life-cycle carbon impact, life cycle cost and future thermal performance. Data-driven optimisation outcomes will be evaluated against stakeholders' values through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) process, with the combined NSGA-ii-MCDA approach forming the late iteration of the climate change adaptation decision-support framework. Through integrating stakeholders' values within a rapid data-driven approach, the framework aims to account for real-world design requirements and conflicts within urban HE estates. The work will aim to improve understanding of the influence of life-cycle impact on the suitability of climate change adaptation pathways for the HE sector. Research outcomes have potential application in early-stage architectural design practice and management of HE estates.