Scalable climate change adaptation decision support pathways for UK higher education estates

在英国，全球温室气体排放的持续上升趋势可能会使炎热的晴天温度在2070年上升3.7摄氏度至6.8摄氏度，同时伴随着更频繁的高温天气。城市热岛的影响加剧了许多大城市所经历的变暖效应，进一步放大了气候变化给城市结构和居民带来的风险。对于高等教育（HE）环境，挑战在于保持较高的室内环境质量标准，同时减轻未来气候下增加的冷负荷。本研究旨在建立一个气候变化适应决策支持框架，将低碳气候变化适应策略融入城市校园规模的高等教育建筑存量中。采用进化算法（NSGA-ii）和聚类分层聚类将有助于根据生命周期碳影响、生命周期成本和未来热性能快速优化主动和被动气候变化适应设计策略。数据驱动的优化结果将通过多标准决策分析（MCDA）过程根据利益相关者的价值进行评估，并结合NSGA-ii-MCDA方法形成气候变化适应决策支持框架的后期迭代。通过在快速数据驱动的方法中整合利益相关者的价值，该框架旨在考虑现实世界的设计需求和城市HE项目中的冲突。这项工作旨在提高对生命周期影响对高等教育部门气候变化适应途径适宜性的影响的理解。研究成果在高等教育项目的前期建筑设计实践和管理中具有潜在的应用价值。

In the UK, a continued upward trend in global greenhouse gas emissions could see hot sunny day temperatures rise between 3.7C to 6.8C by 2070, accompanied by a greater frequency of hot spells. The impact of the urban heat island, exasperating the warming effect experienced in many large cities, further amplifies the risks that climate change presents to urban fabric and inhabitants. For higher education (HE) environments, the challenge is to maintain high indoor environmental quality standards whilst mitigating increased cooling loads under future climates. This research works towards the development of a climate change adaptation decision-support framework for urban campus-scale integration of low-carbon climate change adaptation strategies into the HE building stock. The use of an evolutionary algorithm (NSGA-ii) and agglomerative hierarchical clustering will aid rapid optimisation of active and passive climate change adaptation design strategies according to life-cycle carbon impact, life cycle cost and future thermal performance. Data-driven optimisation outcomes will be evaluated against stakeholders' values through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) process, with the combined NSGA-ii-MCDA approach forming the late iteration of the climate change adaptation decision-support framework. Through integrating stakeholders' values within a rapid data-driven approach, the framework aims to account for real-world design requirements and conflicts within urban HE estates. The work will aim to improve understanding of the influence of life-cycle impact on the suitability of climate change adaptation pathways for the HE sector. Research outcomes have potential application in early-stage architectural design practice and management of HE estates.