Parameterising a model for the emergence and spread of zoonoses (with reference to Ebola, Lassa Fever and Monkey Pox) in West Africa

2014年西非最近爆发的埃博拉疫情的规模使西非卫生系统不堪重负，较小的疫情在更广泛的地区继续定期发生，最近一次是2018年在刚果民主共和国。拉沙热病毒的持续存在和出现给卫生系统造成了相当大的负担，特别是那些支持该地区不断扩大的农业和定居社区的卫生系统。2018/19年度，尼日利亚最近一次LVF疫情引起全球关注。据估计，每年约有数十万人感染，数万人死亡。重要的研究问题仍然存在，特别是那些与当前农村发展途径的作用和相关的疾病出现的风险，从peridomestic动物水库（野生和驯养动物）。猴痘病毒似乎同时在尼日利亚和塞拉利昂出现，在拟议的研究地区可能有类似于VHF的驱动因素。该项目旨在通过建模和实地考察相结合来解决这些问题，确定溢出效应，以及这些感染溢出效应的关键基础设施或发展驱动因素。研究结果对于未来预防VHF爆发的规划将非常重要，而所开发的方法应广泛适用于许多环境中的各种疾病。

The scale of the recent outbreak of Ebola in West Africa in 2014 overwhelmed West African health systems and smaller outbreaks continue regularly in the wider region with the most recent in Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018. Lassa Fever Virus persistence and emergence is creating a considerable burden on the health systems especially those supporting expanding agricultural and settlement communities in the region. The most recent outbreak of LVF drawing global attention in Nigeria in 2018/19. Some hundreds of thousands of infections are estimated annually and tens of thousands of mortalities. Important research questions to study remain, particularly those related to the role of the current rural development pathways and associated risk of disease emergence from peridomestic animal reservoirs (wild and domesticated animals). Monkey Pox virus appears to be emerging in both Nigeria and Sierra Leone at the same time and may have drivers similar to the VHFs in the proposed study areas. This project aims to address these questions using a combination of modelling and fieldwork, identifying spill-over into and, potential epidemiological roles of peri-domestic species and key infrastructure or development drivers of these infections spill-over. The results will be important for future planning towards preventing VHF outbreaks, while the methods developed should be broadly applicable to a variety of diseases in a number of settings.