Parameterising a model for the emergence and spread of zoonoses (with reference to Ebola, Lassa Fever and Monkey Pox) in West Africa

2014年西非最近爆发的埃博拉疫情使西非卫生系统不堪重负，较小规模的疫情在更广泛的区域继续定期爆发，最近一次是2018年在刚果民主共和国。拉沙热病毒的持续存在和出现正在给卫生系统造成相当大的负担，特别是那些支持该区域不断扩大的农业和住区社区的卫生系统。最近一次LVF爆发于2018/19年在尼日利亚引起了全球关注。据估计，每年约有数十万人感染，数万人死亡。需要研究的重要研究问题仍然存在，特别是与当前农村发展路径的作用以及来自周围动物宿主(野生和驯养动物)的疾病出现的相关风险有关的问题。猴痘病毒似乎同时在尼日利亚和塞拉利昂出现，其驱动因素可能与拟议研究地区的超高频类似。该项目旨在通过建模和实地考察相结合的方式来解决这些问题，确定对家养周边物种的溢出和潜在的流行病学作用，以及这些感染溢出的关键基础设施或发展驱动因素。这些结果将对今后预防甚高频暴发的规划具有重要意义，而所开发的方法应广泛适用于许多环境中的各种疾病。

The scale of the recent outbreak of Ebola in West Africa in 2014 overwhelmed West African health systems and smaller outbreaks continue regularly in the wider region with the most recent in Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018. Lassa Fever Virus persistence and emergence is creating a considerable burden on the health systems especially those supporting expanding agricultural and settlement communities in the region. The most recent outbreak of LVF drawing global attention in Nigeria in 2018/19. Some hundreds of thousands of infections are estimated annually and tens of thousands of mortalities. Important research questions to study remain, particularly those related to the role of the current rural development pathways and associated risk of disease emergence from peridomestic animal reservoirs (wild and domesticated animals). Monkey Pox virus appears to be emerging in both Nigeria and Sierra Leone at the same time and may have drivers similar to the VHFs in the proposed study areas. This project aims to address these questions using a combination of modelling and fieldwork, identifying spill-over into and, potential epidemiological roles of peri-domestic species and key infrastructure or development drivers of these infections spill-over. The results will be important for future planning towards preventing VHF outbreaks, while the methods developed should be broadly applicable to a variety of diseases in a number of settings.