Uncertainty Quantification in Digital Twin Engineering

研究将解决不确定性量化、其传播到性能和设计决策以及提高生产率的管理方面的当前和未来挑战。它包括根据概率逻辑和使用不精确概率的模糊信息量化不确定性的方法；工程设计中遇到的各种类型模型的不确定性传播的适当方法；反问题中剩余不确定性的量化、建模误差及其影响；以及不确定性和设计决策的整合和相互作用。迫切需要的是实用的方法，这些方法可以处理各种不确定性，可以非侵入性地应用，并且可以扩展到大型工程模拟。该项目的主管将是利物浦大学风险与不确定性研究所的斯科特·费尔森教授。这一项目的资金将由与数字双胞胎计划赠款有关的DTG提供。

Research will address the current and future challenges in uncertainty quantification, their propagation to performance and design decisions, and management for improving productivity. It includes methodologies for quantifying uncertainty based on probability logic and vague information using imprecise probability; appropriate methodology for uncertainty propagation for a variety of classes of models encountered in engineering designs; quantification of the remaining uncertainty in inverse problems, modelling errors and their effects; and the integration and interaction of uncertainty and design decisions. Of pressing need are practicable methods that can handle various kinds of uncertainty, that can be applied non-intrusively and that are scalable to large engineering simulations.The supervisor for this project will be Professor Scott Ferson of the Institute of Risk and Uncertainty at the University of Liverpool. Funding for this project will be provided by a DTG associated with the Digital Twins Programme Grant.