City Digital Twin Hybrid Simulation for Systemic Risk Assessment and Resilience Quantification: Application to Future Flood Projections in Canada

世界经济论坛2020年版《全球风险报告》继续将气候变化减缓失败、极端天气事件和自然灾害列为综合可能性和影响最大的风险。在这方面，考虑到2019年加拿大气候变化报告，加拿大处于特别脆弱的地位，该报告强调了加拿大的变暖速度是全球平均水平的两倍，加剧了未来极端天气的频率和强度。迫切需要创新工具来指导加拿大城市的实际气候适应战略，特别是考虑到加拿大城市联合会的2020年分析-估计地方（城市一级）气候变化适应措施的平均年支出为53亿加元。 未来五年研究计划的重点是城市洪水构成加拿大最昂贵的自然灾害，以及关键基础设施网络（CINS）的持续运营（例如，电力、雨水管理和交通）是城市在气候压力下恢复能力的关键。因此，拟议的研究重点领域旨在解决与真实的城市CINS有关的三个关键技术挑战：i）复杂的相互依赖动态模拟; ii）考虑不同来源的不确定性的未来洪水预测下的级联故障预测; iii）在洪水情景时间历史之前和整个洪水情景时间历史中优化的恢复力管理策略。具体而言，重点领域I将致力于将不同的城市CIN功能及其相互依赖性合并到一个临时的网络的网络架构中，通过一个新的互操作性模块来实现，使基于物理的CIN和洪水模拟器能够进行交互，从而模仿真实的城市中的CIN相互依赖性。采用基于概率性能的设计和金融网络级联风险评估方法，重点领域II的研究将率先开发城市压力测试协议，以预测未来气候预测下的CIN洪水引起的级联故障，包括不同的不确定性来源。最后，重点领域三将利用先进的自适应网络和进化计算技术优化城市复原力管理战略，并开发交互式数据和4D（3D+时间）可视化界面，以向利益攸关方调动所产生的研究知识。该研究计划的总体目标是创建更复杂的数字孪生互操作性分析工具，可以考虑不同城市的社会，经济，生态和物理层面，以及其他形式的灾害及其在多灾害环境中的相互依存关系，以减轻城市系统性风险，并确保加拿大的弹性为子孙后代不断变化的气候。

The 2020 edition of the Global Risk Report by the World Economic Forum continued to identify Failure of climate-change mitigation Extreme weather events; and Natural disasters as the topmost risks in terms of their combined likelihood and impact. In this respect, Canada is in a particularly vulnerable position considering the 2019 Canada's Changing Climate report which highlighted how Canada's warming rate has been double the magnitude of the global average-intensifying the frequency and magnitude of future weather extremes. There is an urgent need for innovative tools to guide practical climate adaption strategies in Canadian cities, especially considering the 2020 analysis by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities-estimating an average annual spending of C$5.3 billion on local (city-level) climate change adaptation measures. The focus over next five years of the research program is driven by the fact that urban floods constitute the costliest natural disasters in Canada, and that the continued operation of critical infrastructure networks (CINs) (e.g., power, stormwater management, and transportation) is key for city resilience under climate stressors. As such, the proposed research focus areas are designed to tackle three key technical challenges pertaining to real city CINs': i) complex interdependence dynamic simulation; ii) cascade failure predictions under future flood projections considering different sources of uncertainty; and iii) optimized resilience management strategies prior to and throughout flood scenario time histories. Specifically, Focus Area I will aim at merging different city CIN functionalities and their interdependence in a temporal Network-of-Networks architecture, operationalized through a novel Interoperability Module-enabling physics-based CIN and flood simulators to interact, thus mimicking CIN interdependence in real cities. Adopting probabilistic performance-based design and financial network cascade risk assessment approaches, research in Focus Area II will pioneer the development of city stress test protocols to predict CIN flood-induced cascade failures under future climate projections incorporating different sources of uncertainty. Finally, Focus Area III will aim at optimizing city resilience management strategies employing sophisticated adaptive network and evolutionary computing techniques and develop interactive data- and 4D (3D+time) visualization interfaces to mobilize the generated research knowledge to stakeholders. The overarching goal of the research program is to create more sophisticated digital twin interoperability analytical tools that can consider different cities' social, economic, ecological and physical dimensions, and other forms of hazard and their interdependence within a multi-hazard environment, in order to mitigate city systemic risks and ensure a resilient Canada's to its changing climate for generations to come.