The International Balance of Power and Voting Behavior

国际权力平衡与投票行为

• 批准号: 2261333
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2261333
• 关键词: International; Balance; Power; Voting; Behavior

At Oxford, I intend to investigate the relationship between major shifts in the international balance of power and the political life of democracies, particularly in terms of election outcomes. Previous research in this field has shown, for example, that major external impulses (e.g. the rise of a new superpower, or institutional changes within one) can cause reactions in other countries, including regime changes. The theory behind this is that political elites react to these shocks either through emulation (by reproducing a model that seems successful - e.g. the wave of democratization following the fall of the Soviet Union and the United States' being the only remaining world superpower) or through containment and repression of emulation (e.g. the reactions to the perceived threat of a Bolshevik revolution in many Western countries in the 1920-30s). My contention is that similar arguments could be made for voters in democracies: the effects of these international shocks should be visible in terms of election outcomes. For instance, one question that my research would aim to answer is whether we can partly explain the recent surge of nationalism and extremism in Western democracies with the re-emergence of Russia and China (neither of which is a liberal democracy) as superpowers and the progressive end of a unipolar, U.S.-led global order. Voters might see in authoritarianism a successful model to emulate (which might explain Vladimir Putin's popularity among many Western conservatives), and thus support extremist and nationalist parties. On the other hand, it is also reasonable to hypothesize an opposite reaction by members of the electorate who mobilize to counter the threat of authoritarianism and nationalism. Therefore, external shocks might cause quantifiable outcomes such as shifts in the average voter's ideology or an increase in polarization.

在牛津大学，我打算研究国际权力平衡的重大变化与民主国家的政治生活之间的关系，特别是在选举结果方面。例如，这一领域以前的研究表明，重大的外部推动力（例如，一个新超级大国的崛起，或一个超级大国内部的制度变革）可能会引起其他国家的反应，包括政权更迭。这背后的理论是，政治精英对这些冲击的反应要么是通过模仿，（通过复制一种似乎成功的模式--例如，苏联解体后的民主化浪潮，美国是唯一剩下的世界超级大国）或通过遏制和压制模仿（例如，20世纪20 - 30年代许多西方国家对布尔什维克革命威胁的反应）。我的论点是，民主国家的选民也可以提出类似的论点：这些国际冲击的影响应该在选举结果中可见。例如，我的研究旨在回答的一个问题是，随着俄罗斯和中国（两者都不是自由民主国家）作为超级大国的重新崛起，以及单极美国的逐步结束，我们是否可以部分解释西方民主国家最近民族主义和极端主义的激增。全球秩序。选民们可能会将威权主义视为一个值得效仿的成功典范（这或许可以解释弗拉基米尔·普京在许多西方保守派中的受欢迎程度），从而支持极端主义和民族主义政党。另一方面，也可以合理地假设，动员起来对抗独裁主义和民族主义威胁的选民会作出相反的反应。因此，外部冲击可能会造成可量化的结果，如普通选民意识形态的转变或两极分化的加剧。