A comparative study into how access to social media impacts political polarisation and micro-level voting mechanisms in Sub Saharan Africa

虽然社交媒体对西方政治的政治影响受到了大量学术关注，但该地区以外的研究却很有限。我的项目将试图修正这一点，重点关注非洲大陆日益增长的互联网连接和社交媒体使用及其政治影响。我最初的假设是，随着基于互联网的政治信息获取渠道的增加，我们应该预期政治两极分化会加剧。在公众信任度高的国家，我们应该预期这会导致选民投票率的增加。相反，在公众信任度低的地方，我们可能会看到选民的冷漠、幻灭和潜在的冲突。我们还可以预期，在这种新的信息背景下，精英们为赢得选票而采用的策略会发生变化。首先，大N分析将在一般水平上检验我的假设。有关互联网连接的政府和网络数据将与非洲晴雨表和有关投票率、政党选择、参与和知识的选举数据进行回归。然后，我将使用案例研究和实地考察来分析支撑任何广泛经验关系的因果机制。塞内加尔和博茨瓦纳是值得关注的强大国家：虽然这两个国家的互联网连接不断增加，民主历史悠久，政治相对稳定，可以获得相对可靠的数据，但它们在公众对政治机构的信任方面存在差异。此外，对塞内加尔进行英语语言研究具有学术价值，因为法语非洲国家在英语文献中研究相对较少。两国都将在2019年举行大选，因此将会有大量新的社交媒体内容进行文本分析和定量编码。实地考察将使我能够进行半结构化的采访，并直接与精英们谈论竞选策略。最后，我将把我的结果放在一个更普遍的比较框架中，分析西方社会媒体与政治之间的关系是否也适用于非洲环境。我对挖掘可能将政治信息与选民投票率和两极分化联系起来的机制特别感兴趣，比如“回音室”和“假新闻”。此外，在塞内加尔和博茨瓦纳的任何发现都可能对政治和发展的其他领域产生影响。例如，如果社交媒体影响大众两极分化，就会影响我们对未来冲突、倒退和问责制的理解。这对于理解坦桑尼亚、巴西和印度最近的倒退尤其有用。

Whilst the political effects of social media on Western politics are receiving significant scholarly attention, research outside this region is limited. My project would seek to amend this, focusing on increased internet connectivity and social media use on the African continent and its political implications. My initial hypothesis would be that as internet-based access to political information increases, we should expect political polarisation to increase. In countries where public trust is high, we should expect this to lead to increased voter turnout. Conversely, where public trust is low, we might expect voter apathy, disillusionment and potential conflict. We might also expect changes in the strategies elites deploy to win votes within this new informational context. Firstly, a large N analysis will test my hypotheses at a general level. Government and network data regarding internet connectivity will be regressed against Afrobarometer and electoral data regarding turnout, party choice, participation and knowledge. I will then use case studies and fieldwork to analyse the causal mechanisms underpinning any broad empirical relationships. Senegal and Botswana are strong countries to focus on: whilst both have increasing internet connectivity, an established history of democracy, relative political stability and access to relatively reliable data, they vary with regards to public trust in political institutions. Furthermore, conducting English language research about Senegal is of academic value, since francophone African countries are comparatively understudied in the anglophone literature. Both countries have elections in 2019, so there will be a substantial amount of new social media content to textually analyse and quantitatively code. Fieldwork will allow me to conduct semi-structured interviews and speak to elites directly about campaign strategies. Finally, I will place my results in a more universal comparative framework, analysing whether the relationships between social media and politics in the West also apply in the African setting. I would be particularly interested in unearthing the mechanisms that might connect political information to voter turnout and polarisation, such as "echo chambers" and "fake news". Furthermore, any findings in Senegal and Botswana could have implications for other areas of politics and development. If social media impacts mass polarisation, for example, there would be implications for our understanding of future conflict, backsliding and accountability. This could be especially useful in understanding recent backsliding in Tanzania, Brazil or India.