Optimising the surveillance and control of communicable diseases: the effects of population heterogeneity on transmission dynamics

优化传染病的监测和控制：人群异质性对传播动态的影响

• 批准号: 2270123
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2270123
• 关键词: Optimising; surveillance; control; communicable; diseases

Outbreaks of infectious diseases in plant populations are responsible for devastating economic and environmental consequences. In many cases, detecting infection in a population soon after a pathogen has first invaded is crucial to the success of control methods. The design of effective surveillance strategies for the early detection of invasive plant pathogens is consequently a key challenge for global biosecurity. Unfortunately, monitoring programmes are often confounded by periods of asymptomatic infection, during which plants do not display visible symptoms. However, there is the potential to use 'sentinel' plants which display symptoms more quickly as early warning beacons. In this project, I will apply mathematical and computational techniques to determine scenarios under which sentinel-based surveillance strategies will provide a cost-effective approach to early detection monitoring, considering real-life plant pathogens as case studies.

植物种群中传染病的爆发会造成毁灭性的经济和环境后果。在许多情况下，在病原体首次入侵后立即检测人群中的感染对于控制方法的成功至关重要。因此，设计有效的监测策略以早期检测入侵植物病原体是全球生物安全的一个关键挑战。不幸的是，监测计划经常被无症状感染时期所困扰，在此期间植物不会表现出明显的症状。然而，有可能使用更快地显示症状的“哨兵”植物作为预警信标。在这个项目中，我将应用数学和计算技术来确定基于哨兵的监测策略将为早期检测监测提供经济高效的方法的场景，并将现实生活中的植物病原体视为案例研究。

项目成果

When Do Epidemics End? Scientific Insights from Mathematical Modelling Studies

• DOI: 10.1484/j.cnt.5.130125
• 发表时间: 2022-01-01
• 期刊: CENTAURUS
• 影响因子: 1.2
• 作者: Linton, Natalie M.;Lovell-Read, Francesca A.;Nishiura, Hiroshi
• 通讯作者: Nishiura, Hiroshi

Using 'sentinel' plants to improve early detection of invasive plant pathogens

利用“哨兵”植物改善入侵植物病原体的早期检测

• DOI: 10.1101/2022.09.01.506171
• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Lovell-Read F

Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110983
• 发表时间: 2022-02-21
• 期刊: Journal of theoretical biology
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Lovell-Read FA;Shen S;Thompson RN
• 通讯作者: Thompson RN

Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.1014
• 发表时间: 2021-05
• 期刊: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
• 作者: Lovell-Read FA;Funk S;Obolski U;Donnelly CA;Thompson RN
• 通讯作者: Thompson RN

The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

交叉反应免疫对SARS-COV-2变体出现的影响。

• DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.1049458
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: FRONTIERS IN IMMUNOLOGY
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: Thompson, Robin N.;Southall, Emma;Daon, Yair;Lovell-Read, Francesca A.;Iwami, Shingo;Thompson, Craig P.;Obolski, Uri
• 通讯作者: Obolski, Uri