Investigating Subjective Expectations in the NLSY

调查 NLSY 中的主观期望

• 批准号: 6557438
• 负责人: JAMES R. WALKER
• 金额: $ 7.08万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-12-02 至 2004-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6557438
• 关键词: biological models; birth; case history; clinical research; contraceptives; data collection methodology /evaluation; decision making; epidemiology; fertility; human data; interview; longitudinal human study; pregnancy; questionnaires

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In the last decade, economists have begun to consider the use of subjective data for understanding individual decision-making. A critical perspective of the emerging research is that expectations and other subjective phenomenon represent different dimensions of the same decision process generating objective demographic outcomes. Since the linkages among the components are almost always conceptual, formal models of behavior must guide analyses of subjective data. The availability of new subjective data, with their direct connection to behavioral models, affords exciting new opportunities to formulate, estimate and evaluate formal models of demographic behavior. My long-run research agenda is to formulate and estimate a structural econometric model of fertility behavior that links notions of wantedness, expectations and birth outcomes. Before such a time-intensive and arduous research agenda is undertaken, a better understanding of the properties of the subjective data is needed. This application presents a "pilot-study "to investigate the feasibility of this long run research agenda. I propose to investigate the informational content and nature of responses to subjective expectation questions in two cohorts of youth within the National Longitudinal Survey Program, the 1979 Cohort (NLSY79, individuals born in 1957-1964), and the 1997 Cohort (NLSY97, individuals born in 1980-1984). Through the execution of five empirical analyses of NLSY data, the proposed research will contribute a data product useful to researchers interested analyzing the NLSY97; will characterize the nature and quality of responses to subjective expectation questions appearing in various rounds of the NLSY79 and NLSY97 surveys; will contribute to the survey methodology literature on "best practices" for constructing and fielding subjective expectation questions; and will contribute to our understanding of the formation of subjective fertility expectations over the lifecycle, which will also contribute to our understanding of fertility decision making, especially by youth.

描述（由申请人提供）：在过去的十年中，经济学家已经开始考虑使用主观数据来理解个人决策。 新兴研究的一个关键观点是，期望和其他主观现象代表了产生客观人口统计结果的同一决策过程的不同维度。由于各组成部分之间的联系几乎总是概念性的，因此行为的正式模型必须指导主观数据的分析。新的主观数据的可用性及其与行为模型的直接联系，为制定、估计和评估人口行为的正式模型提供了令人兴奋的新机会。我的长期研究议程是制定和估计生育行为的结构计量经济学模型，该模型将需求、期望和出生结果的概念联系起来。在进行如此耗时且艰巨的研究议程之前，需要更好地了解主观数据的属性。该应用程序提出了一项“试点研究”，以调查这一长期研究议程的可行性。我建议调查国家纵向调查计划内的两个青年群体，即 1979 年群体（NLSY79，1957-1964 年出生的个人）和 1997 年群体（NLSY97，1980-1984 年出生的个人）对主观期望问题的回答的信息内容和性质。通过对 NLSY 数据进行五次实证分析，拟议的研究将为有兴趣分析 NLSY97 的研究人员提供有用的数据产品；将描述对 NLSY79 和 NLSY97 各轮调查中出现的主观期望问题的答复的性质和质量；将为有关构建和解决主观期望问题的“最佳实践”的调查方法文献做出贡献；并将有助于我们理解生命周期中主观生育期望的形成，这也将有助于我们理解生育决策，尤其是年轻人的生育决策。