How Perceptions of Parties Evolve Following Leadership Change: Evidence from Panel data and Computer-assisted Content Analysis of News Coverage

该项目的目的是研究选民对政党领导人的看法，方法是利用先进的评估选民意见和媒体内容的工具，估计领导层更迭及其媒体报道对公众态度的影响。英国最近发生的事件创造了独特的机会来检查领导层更迭对选民看法的影响；自2015年以来，英国所有七个主要的国家和地区政党都更换了领导人。英国选举研究(BES)互联网小组的15次浪潮(还在不断增加)追踪了同样的选民在领导人换届前后对政党的态度，产生了独特的数据来估计受访者内部的态度变化。通过评估个人在变化前后的态度，面板数据结构使该项目能够确定领导层变化对同一个人感知的影响。计算机辅助内容分析的发展进一步使该项目能够确定决定领导层更迭的途径和环境。主要日报的数据将与BES合并，以评估媒体报道的缓和影响。通过将使用面板数据的新颖研究设计与用于揭示潜在选民对政党的支持和媒体数据的内容分析的先进工具相结合，该项目旨在最终确定领导层更迭对选民意见的影响。

The aim of this project is to study voter perceptions of party leaders by estimating the impact of leadership change and its media coverage on public attitudes using advanced tools for evaluating voter opinions and media content. Recent events in the United Kingdom create unique opportunities to examine leadership change's effects on voter perceptions; all seven major national and regional British parties changed leaders since 2015. Fifteen waves (and counting) of the British Election Study (BES) Internet Panel tracked the same voters' attitudes towards parties before and after leader transitions producing unique data to estimate within-respondent attitude change. Evaluating individuals' attitudes before and after change, the panel data structure empowers the project to determine leadership change's effect on the same individual's perceptions. Developments in computer-assisted content analysis further enables the project to identify the pathways and environment determining leadership change. Data from major daily newspapers will be merged with the BES to assess the moderating impact of media coverage. By combining the novel research design using panel data with advanced tools for revealing underlying voter support for parties and content analysis of media data, the project aims to conclusively identify leadership change's effects on voter opinions.