Adaptation strategies to pluvial urban flood risk under UKCP18 climate change scenarios

UKCP18气候变化情景下城市洪水风险的适应策略

• 批准号: 2287657
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2287657
• 关键词: Adaptation; strategies; pluvial; urban; flood

The frequency and impact of heavy rainfall associated with summer convective storms and winter frontal storms is projected to increase with future climate change. Higher intensity rainfall poses significant pluvial flooding challenges in urban areas, which have constrained mitigation options due to existing infrastructure and developments. Local authorities need to account for climate change in flood mitigation strategies and currently use regional climate models (RCM's) such as the UKCP09 climate projections issued by the Met Office (Rabb et al, 2017). These model simulations provide projections of how variables such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity may change at a regional level under climate change. RCMs have a number of advantages over more traditional Global Climate Models (GCMs); they provide information at a higher spatial resolution (a few kilometres compared to 20-100km) and they are able to account for smaller scale atmospheric circulations such as those associated with convective thunderstorms, producing more realistic rainfall and flood intensities and frequencies (McGregor, 1996; Rabb, 2017). The UKCP18 climate projections build on UKCP09. UKCP18 has an even finer resolution and provides more sophisticated climate projections, with greater detail at regional scales (Rabb et al, 2017). The RCM data, alongside hydrology and hydraulic modelling, enables an enhanced understanding of how climate change will impact streamflow, river hydrology and flood risk. Despite these significant advances in climate modelling, there are still major research gaps in terms of how this enhanced resolution climate understanding translates into flooding impacts, as well as how best to utilise this new data in existing flood assessment methodologies and models. This project will specifically address this research gap. Along with traditional flood defence options, sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS), and more recently natural flood management (NFM) methodologies are all now being utilised as mitigation options to addressing increased flood risk. However, how best to utilise this combination of options in a given urban catchment is not always obvious, given the complexities of real flood defence schemes. As well exploring climate change projections, this project will also look at a range of mitigation options used in real flood defence schemes, with engineering grade flood models provided by partners.This PhD project provides a unique opportunity for a student to integrate two linked research areas, working at the interface of cutting edge climate modelling and flood risk assessment. The support of CASE partner WSP (a major engineering consultancy) and Leeds City Council (Lead local flood authority) provides the opportunity to work with and learn from flood defence professionals, while maximising the impact of the research. The student should have a strong interest in environmental problems related to meteorology, climate and flood risk. They will also have a strong background in a quantitative science (math, physics, engineering, environmental sciences) and a flair for, or a good familiarity with, programming and scientific computing.The student will work under the supervision of Dr Mark Trigg (Flood Risk and NFM), Dr Christian Berretta (SUDS and drainage), Dr Cathryn Birch (Climate modelling), Paul Lambert (WSP, Flooding & Drainage), and Matt Sherwood (LCC, Flood Risk). The student will benefit directly from an existing partnership between the University of Leeds, WSP and Leeds City Council. High level training will be provided in specialist subjects professional flood and drainage modelling software and methods.

随着未来气候变化，与夏季对流风暴和冬季锋面风暴相关的强降雨的频率和影响预计将增加。较高强度的降雨给城市地区带来了严重的雨洪挑战，由于现有的基础设施和开发，缓解方案受到限制。地方当局需要在防洪策略中考虑气候变化，目前使用区域气候模型 (RCM)，例如英国气象局发布的 UKCP09 气候预测（Rabb 等人，2017 年）。这些模型模拟提供了气候变化下温度、降雨量和湿度等变量在区域层面如何变化的预测。与传统的全球气候模型 (GCM) 相比，RCM 具有许多优势；它们以更高的空间分辨率提供信息（与 20-100 公里相比为几公里），并且能够解释较小规模的大气环流，例如与对流雷暴相关的大气环流，产生更真实的降雨和洪水强度和频率（McGregor，1996；Rabb，2017）。 UKCP18 气候预测建立在 UKCP09 的基础上。 UKCP18 具有更精细的分辨率，并提供更复杂的气候预测，以及区域尺度的更多细节（Rabb 等，2017）。 RCM 数据与水文学和水力模型一起，可以增强人们对气候变化将如何影响水流、河流水文学和洪水风险的了解。尽管气候建模取得了这些重大进展，但在这种增强分辨率的气候理解如何转化为洪水影响以及如何在现有洪水评估方法和模型中最好地利用这些新数据方面仍然存在重大研究空白。该项目将专门解决这一研究空白。除了传统的防洪方案之外，可持续城市排水系统（SUDS）以及最近的自然洪水管理（NFM）方法现在都被用作缓解方案，以应对日益增加的洪水风险。然而，考虑到实际防洪计划的复杂性，如何在给定的城市流域中最好地利用这种选项组合并不总是显而易见的。除了探索气候变化预测外，该项目还将研究实际防洪计划中使用的一系列缓解方案，以及合作伙伴提供的工程级洪水模型。该博士项目为学生提供了一个独特的机会，可以整合两个相互关联的研究领域，在尖端气候建模和洪水风险评估的界面上进行工作。 CASE 合作伙伴 WSP（一家大型工程咨询公司）和利兹市议会（当地防洪主管部门）的支持提供了与防洪专业人员合作并向其学习的机会，同时最大限度地发挥了研究的影响。学生应对与气象、气候和洪水风险相关的环境问题有浓厚的兴趣。他们还将在定量科学（数学、物理、工程、环境科学）方面拥有深厚的背景，并且对编程和科学计算有天赋或熟悉。学生将在 Mark Trigg 博士（洪水风险和 NFM）、Christian Berretta 博士（SUDS 和排水）、Cathryn Birch 博士（气候建模）、Paul Lambert（WSP、洪水和排水）和 Matt 的监督下工作 舍伍德（LCC，洪水风险）。学生将直接受益于利兹大学、WSP 和利兹市议会之间现有的合作伙伴关系。将提供专业科目、专业洪水和排水建模软件和方法的高水平培训。