The Understanding and Prediction of High Impact Weather in the Gulf of Guinea

几内亚湾和邻近的沿海地区经历了地球上最严重的雷暴，这对当地渔民、该地区的航运以及石油和天然气工业构成了威胁。在几内亚湾上空，天气状况可以在一小时内从看似平静的状况迅速转变为强风、大雨和大浪。该项目旨在调查几内亚湾有组织的雷暴复合体的动力学和可预测性，这些雷暴复合体被称为中尺度对流系统（mcs）或飑线。该项目将努力推进现有的方法，以客观地识别和跟踪mcs和飑线。这些方法将适用于几内亚湾的飑线，这样它们就可以在未来以不同的水平分辨率跟踪英国气象局预报产品中的特征。一旦客观地确定了沿海和海洋地区的飑线，我们将调查它们形成的原因和方式，它们的演变以及它们与西非陆地形成的飑线有什么共同之处。调查将基于地球静止和极轨卫星的卫星数据，欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的分析和再分析数据集，以及英国气象局统一模型（MetUM）的全球和对流天气预报。该项目的总体目标是改进几内亚湾暴风事件的数值天气预报，从而提高预报的准确性，延长预警系统运行的提前期。尽管对人类生活和生计造成重大影响，但关于这些高影响天气事件的科学文献有限。该项目是一个真正的机会，有助于从根本上了解该地区迄今为止很少受到关注的风暴成因、生命周期和物理影响。博士项目的科学目标是：(1)客观地识别和跟踪几内亚湾和西非的飑线(2)该地区的飑线是如何以及为什么产生的？地理和天气/大尺度天气对形成有什么影响？(3)这些飑线的潜在动力是什么？它们与西非的飑线有什么不同吗？(4)数值天气预报模式如何捕捉飑线，能否加以改进以提供更早的预警时间？(5)开发诊断评估工具，以评估几内亚湾飑线在MetUM中的演变。这个项目将成为全球挑战研究基金非洲天气信息和预报技术科学（GCRF africa - swift）项目的一部分，该项目旨在发展非洲天气预报能力，以提高非洲人口的生计和改善非洲经济。作为这个国际项目的一部分，你将有机会与英国和非洲的业务预报员一起工作，并与英国和国际伙伴国家（塞内加尔、加纳、尼日利亚和肯尼亚）的热带科学家联系。与非洲- swift的连接将促进观测和直接受到几内亚湾飑线影响的当地利益相关者的接触，它将确保你成为英国和非洲一个充满活力的科学界的一部分。作为GCRF非洲-SWIFT项目的一员，你将有机会参加为非洲科学家和预报员举办的国际培训和知识交流活动（如项目会议、SWIFT暑期学校）。与英国气象局（CASE合作伙伴）的密切合作将确保这项研究的结果将用于运营模式的评估和开发。与澳大利亚墨尔本莫纳什大学（Monash University）的研究人员的合作也在考虑之中，可能包括长期访问。

The Gulf of Guinea and adjacent coastal regions experience some of the most severe thunderstorms on the Earth, which pose a threat to local fisherman, shipping in the region, and the oil and gas industry. Over the Gulf of Guinea, the weather conditions can change quickly within an hour from seemingly calm conditions to strong winds, heavy rain and high waves.This project aims to investigate the dynamics and predictability of organised thunderstorm complexes, which are called mesoscale-convective systems (MCSs) or squall lines, in the Gulf of Guinea. The project would include efforts to advance already existing methods to objectively identify and then track MCSs and squall lines. These methods will be adapted for squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea so they can be used to track features in Met Office forecast products at different horizontal resolutions in the future. Once the squall lines have been objectively identified over coastal and oceanic regions we will investigate why and how they form, their evolution and what they have in common with land forming squall lines over West Africa. The investigation will be based on satellite data from geostationary and polar orbiting satellites, analysis and reanalysis datasets from the European Centre of Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) as well as global and convection-permitting weather forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM).The overarching aim of the project will be to improve numerical weather prediction of squall events in the Gulf of Guinea, resulting in more accurate prediction and longer lead times for operational early warning systems. Scientific literature on these High Impact Weather (HIW) events is limited, despite the significant impact on human lives and livelihoods. This project is a real opportunity to contribute to fundamental understanding of storm genesis, lifecycle and physical impacts in a region that has had little attention to date.The scientific objectives of the PhD project are:(1) Objectively identify and track squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea and West Africa(2) How and why do the squall lines from in this region? What are the geographic and synoptic/ large scale weather impacts on formation?(3) What are the underlying dynamics of these squall lines? Are they different compared to squall lines over West Africa?(4) How do numerical weather prediction models capture squall lines and can this be improved to provide longer-lead early warning times?(5) Develop diagnostic evaluation tools to assess the evolution of squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea in the MetUM. This project will be part of the Global Challenges Research Fund African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (GCRF African-SWIFT) programme which aims to develop African weather forecasting capability to enhance the livelihood of African populations and improve African economies. By being part of this international project you will have the opportunity to work with both UK and African operational forecasters and connect with tropical scientists across the UK and the international partner countries (Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya). The link to African-SWIFT will facilitate access to observations and to local stakeholders who are directly affected by squall lines in the Gulf of Guinea, and it will ensure that you are part of a vibrant scientific community in the UK and in Africa.By being part of GCRF African-SWIFT you will have the opportunity to attend international training and knowledge-exchange events for scientists and forecasters in Africa (e.g. project meetings, SWIFT summer school). Close collaboration with the Met Office (the CASE partner) will ensure the results of this study will feed into operational model evaluation and development. Collaboration with researchers at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, is also envisioned, potentially involving an extended visit.