Climate and weather extremes in early instrumental records, mechanisms and consequences

早期仪器记录中的气候和天气极端情况、机制和后果

• 批准号: 2406645
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2406645
• 关键词: Climate; weather; extremes; early; instrumental

This PhD project is one of two PhD projects arising from the NERC-funded consortium GloSAT. GloSAT will extend the observed surface temperature record back into the 18th century, and extend the coverage of historical climate change data using historical ship data, logbooks and other sources. The student will identify past extreme seasonal and monthly events over both land and ocean, making use of multiple data sources including climate model data and palaeoclimatic data. The physical mechanisms and spatial extent of early extremes will be analysed where possible, using historical weather analysis data and early observations of sea level pressure, many of which are now becoming available. Climate models output will be used to identify mechanisms and possible causes of these events.The student will determine if the probability of individual events has been affected by external drivers such as volcanic eruptions, and changes in the sun, building on techniques used to interpret recent extreme weather events. They will also determine the extent to which the events are influenced by large-scale climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) or El Nino, drawing on GloSAT project results. For example, the hypothesis will be explored if record cold winters tend to occur during solar minima in Europe (Lockwood et al., Env. Res. Let. 2010), and to what extent anomalously warm and wet winters follow volcanic eruptions.Analysis of temperature extremes over the ocean will investigate what drives marine heat waves and cold spells. This is necessary for understanding to what extent extreme marine heat waves might superimpose on the warming trend in the future, with potentially devastating consequences for marine life such as corals. This will help place possible future events into the context of rare past events, for example, by addressing the question 'what would this event be like if it occurred today'.The student will be part of the interdisciplinary UK-wide project team comprising researchers from the National Oceanography Centre, the Met Office and the Universities of Edinburgh, Reading, East Anglia, Southampton and York. He or She will be supervised by Hegerl, supported by Ed Hawkins (Reading) and Andrew Schurer (Edinburgh). Hawkins will be consulted at least quarterly, either adjacent to a project meeting, or through a visit. The student will be connected to the newly funded and vibrant Edinburgh Earth, Ecology and Environment DTP (18 students/year) and will join Hegerl's research group. The student will be trained by the NERC DTP (transferrable skills, writing, computing and presentation skills) and apply for external training in suitable summer schools. Scientifically, the student will learn scientific data analysis, mechanisms of climate variability and extreme events, extreme value statistics, climate modelling, climate model analysis and gain an understanding of quantitative and rigorous analysis approaches.

这个博士项目是由NERC资助的财团GloSAT产生的两个博士项目之一。GloSAT将把观测到的表面温度记录追溯到18世纪，并利用历史船舶数据、航海日志和其他来源扩大历史气候变化数据的覆盖范围。学生将确定过去的极端季节性和月度事件在陆地和海洋，利用多种数据源，包括气候模型数据和古气候数据。在可能的情况下，将利用历史天气分析数据和海平面气压早期观测数据，分析早期极端现象的物理机制和空间范围。气候模型的输出将用于识别这些事件的机制和可能的原因。学生将确定单个事件的概率是否受到外部驱动因素的影响，例如火山爆发和太阳的变化，建立在用于解释最近极端天气事件的技术基础上。他们还将利用GloSAT项目的结果，确定这些事件在多大程度上受到北大西洋涛动（NAO）、大西洋多年代际变率（AMV）或厄尔尼诺现象等大尺度气候变率的影响。例如，如果在欧洲的太阳活动极小期往往会出现创纪录的寒冷冬季，则将探讨该假设（洛克伍德等人，Env. Res. Let. 2010年），以及火山爆发后的暖湿冬季会达到什么程度。对海洋极端温度的分析将调查是什么驱动了海洋热浪和寒流。这对于了解极端海洋热浪在多大程度上可能影响未来的变暖趋势，对珊瑚等海洋生物造成潜在的破坏性后果是必要的。这将有助于将未来可能发生的事件置于罕见的过去事件的背景下，例如，通过解决“如果今天发生这种事件会是什么样子”的问题。学生将成为跨学科的英国范围内的项目团队的一部分，该团队由来自国家海洋学中心，英国气象局和爱丁堡大学，阅读，东安格利亚，南安普顿和约克大学的研究人员组成。他或她将由海格尔监督，由艾德霍金斯（阅读）和安德鲁舒勒（爱丁堡）支持。霍金斯将至少每季度咨询一次，要么在项目会议附近，要么通过访问。该学生将与新资助且充满活力的爱丁堡地球、生态和环境DTP（每年18名学生）建立联系，并将加入Hegerl的研究小组。学生将接受NERC DTP（可转移技能，写作，计算和演讲技能）的培训，并申请合适的暑期学校的外部培训。在科学方面，学生将学习科学数据分析，气候变率和极端事件的机制，极端值统计，气候建模，气候模型分析，并了解定量和严格的分析方法。