Integrated Assessment Models, Industrial Ecology and the energy-material nexus of electric vehicle batteries

原材料对减缓气候变化有重大影响。它们对许多低碳技术至关重要，但可能导致高成本、环境排放和供应风险。因此，从新技术设计到政府政策或工业政策，可持续材料战略越来越被认为是支持低碳转型的重要杠杆。为了做出明智的技术决策，需要考虑材料战略的可持续性目标之间的权衡，例如成本，排放，材料关键性以及技术性能。为了评估这些权衡，需要整合不同学科的评估模型。然而，结构化的方法来操作这些模型的整合目前miss. Consequently，本研究的目的是提高集成建模的低碳技术和可持续材料strategies的适用性。该框架结合了几个分析模型，包括程序步骤，一般的数学公式，数据库结构，并为开源软件实现的具体建议。使用电动汽车电池的情况下，IMSMS框架进行了测试。建立了锂离子电池设计的参数化模型，以评估不同材料策略的成本、排放、材料关键性和技术性能。结果表明，技术性能和其他目标之间的显着权衡。从成本、排放和关键性的角度来看，与最佳性能策略相比，材料策略会使技术性能降低46%。然而，作为电池设计的主要决策变量，技术性能可能会带来新的材料挑战，这些目标之间的平衡对于建立可持续的电动汽车电池材料体系至关重要。因此，IM-SMS框架是一个有用的工具，以支持低碳转型的政策和工业决策。

Raw materials have a significant impact on climate change mitigation. They are vital for many low carbon technologies but can contribute to high cost, environmental emissions and supply risks. Sustainable material strategies, from new technology design to governmental policies or industrial practises, are therefore increasingly recognised as important levers to support the low carbon transition. To make well-informed technical decisions, trade-offs between sustainability objectives of material strategies such as costs, emissions, material criticality, as well as technical performance need to be considered. To assess these trade-offs, different discipline-specific assessment models need to be integrated. However, structured approaches to operationalise the integration of such models are currently missing.Accordingly, the aim of this research is to improve the applicability of integrated modelling for low carbon technologies and sustainable material strategies.In this thesis, a general methodological framework for Integrated Modelling of Sustainable Material Strategies (IM-SMS) was developed. The framework combines several analytical models and includes procedural steps, general mathematical formulas, a database structure, and a concrete suggestion for an open-source software implementation. The IMSMS framework was tested using the case of electric vehicle batteries. A parameterised model for lithium-ion battery design was established to assess the cost, emissions, material criticality and technical performance of different material strategies. The results show a significant trade-off between technical performance and the other objectives. Material strategies from a cost, emissions and criticality point of view reduce the technical performance by 46% compared to optimal strategies for the performance. However, technical performance as the main decision variable in battery design can lead to new material challenges.A balance between these objectives is essential to establish sustainable material systems for electric vehicle batteries. As such, the IM-SMS framework is presented as a useful tool to support policy and industrial decisions for the low carbon transition.