Safe environment concentrations under uncertainty

不确定性下的安全环境浓度

• 批准号: 6788050
• 负责人: SCOTT D FERSON
• 金额: $ 34.69万
• 依托单位: APPLIED BIOMATHEMATICS, INC.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-03-01 至 2006-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6788050
• 关键词: computer human interaction; computer program /software; computer system design /evaluation; disease /disorder proneness /risk; environmental contamination; environmental exposure

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The risk from an environmental contaminant is estimated with a risk equation involving the contaminant's concentration and other factors. Because the overall goal of risk management is to ensure such risks are not intolerably large, we need some way to back calculate from constraints on risk mandated by regulation or prudence to the allowable environmental concentration for the contaminant. It is now well known that the approach used in deterministic assessments of simply inverting the risk equation to compute the cleanup goal does not work in a probabilistic assessment. Several approaches have been proposed, but none is sufficiently general. We have developed simple and efficient methods to compute cleanup goals that satisfy multiple simultaneous criteria in the context of a probabilistic assessment. The approach can be used with multiple receptors and with arbitrarily many constraints on percentiles of the target risk. The proposed research will explore the properties of this approach, extend it to more complex problems involving multiple effects (e.g., the toxicant causes two diseases), multiple tropic levels (e.g., plankton to shellfish to humans), multiple exposure pathways (e.g., breathing, drinking, dermal absorption), multiple potentially synergistic toxicants, exposure advisories, and related areas of human health risk assessment. Case studies will be developed for each of these subject areas to demonstrate the workability of the approach and the results disseminated via the scientific literature. User-friendly software will be developed to make these methods available to risk management professionals.

描述（由申请人提供）： 环境污染物的风险是通过一个包含污染物浓度和其他因素的风险方程来估计的。由于风险管理的总体目标是确保这些风险不会大到不可承受的程度，因此我们需要某种方法来从法规或审慎要求的风险约束反向计算污染物的允许环境浓度。现在众所周知，确定性评估中使用的方法，即简单地反演风险方程来计算清除目标，在概率性评估中不起作用。已经提出了几种方法，但没有一种是足够普遍的。我们已经开发出简单而有效的方法来计算清理目标，满足多个同时标准的概率评估的背景下。该方法可以用于多个受体和任意多个约束的目标风险的范围。拟议的研究将探索这种方法的特性，将其扩展到涉及多种效应的更复杂的问题（例如，毒物引起两种疾病），多种热带水平（例如，浮游生物到贝类再到人类），多种接触途径（例如，呼吸、饮用、皮肤吸收）、多种潜在协同毒性物质、接触分类以及人类健康风险评估的相关领域。将为每一个主题领域编写案例研究，以证明这一方法的可行性和通过科学文献传播的结果。将开发方便用户的软件，使风险管理专业人员能够使用这些方法。