Patterns and process in population trends of UK herpetofauna

英国爬行动物种群趋势的模式和过程

• 批准号: 2446067
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Kent
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2446067
• 关键词: Patterns; process; population; trends; UK

Reliable estimates of biodiversity are constrained by an inability to produce robust estimates of nationwide status, trends and threats for many cryptic taxa. Effective decision-making therefore requires (1) a better balanced assessment of biodiversity; and (2) collation and analysis of 'messy' species data that are collected using a variety of protocols and stakeholder groups.Anecdotal evidence points to declines in many of the UK's amphibians and reptiles (or herpetofauna), particularly in formerly widespread species such as the adder and common toad. The National Amphibian and Reptile Recording Scheme (NARRS) was designed to provide evidence on trends in UK herpetofauna, but has been unable to deliver substantive insights into drivers of these trends. Fortunately, statistical tools have now emerged that are capable of providing robust trends from unstructured data, including citizen science records.This project will bring together existing datasets from a range of organisations into a common modelling framework, based on a hierarchical Bayesian occupancy-detection model. These outputs will be used to:1. Reveal national status and trends from disparate data (including NARRS)2. Determine the drivers of trends in distribution and abundance3. Forecast trends under scenarios of future change4. Advise on the design of an integrated monitoring portfolioThe student will receive a comprehensive training experience, covering a broad range of analytical skills including Bayesian statistical techniques for spatio-temporal modelling using citizen science data, as well as transferable skills including stakeholder engagement and knowledge exchange.

可靠的生物多样性的估计是有限的，无法产生可靠的估计全国的现状，趋势和威胁，许多神秘的分类群。因此，有效的决策需要（1）对生物多样性进行更平衡的评估;（2）整理和分析通过各种协议和利益相关者团体收集的“混乱”物种数据。轶事证据表明，英国许多两栖动物和爬行动物（或爬虫动物）的数量下降，特别是以前广泛分布的物种，如加法器和普通蟾蜍。国家两栖动物和爬行动物记录计划（NARRS）的目的是提供英国两栖动物区系趋势的证据，但一直无法提供这些趋势的驱动因素的实质性见解。幸运的是，现在已经出现了能够从非结构化数据（包括公民科学记录）中提供强大趋势的统计工具。该项目将基于分层贝叶斯占用检测模型，将来自一系列组织的现有数据集整合到一个通用建模框架中。这些输出将用于：1.从不同的数据（包括NARRS）中揭示国家状况和趋势。确定分布和丰度趋势的驱动因素3。预测未来变化情景下的趋势4.就综合监测组合的设计提供建议学生将获得全面的培训经验，涵盖广泛的分析技能，包括使用公民科学数据进行时空建模的贝叶斯统计技术，以及可转移的技能，包括利益相关者参与和知识交流。