Multipolarity and non-state actors in conflict resolution: Russia and the Syrian opposition

叙利亚内战已经持续了不到十年。战争的爆发恰逢美国或西方在中东霸权的衰落，为替代力量脱颖而出提供了机会。叙利亚内战提供了最详细和最复杂的案例，说明崛起的力量，即俄罗斯，在最国际化和第一次社会调解的内战之一中进行干预。本项目旨在了解俄罗斯在叙利亚内战中的冲突转化中所扮演的角色，以及其行动对冲突动态的影响。自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯决策者在不同的时候将外交政策工具化，以寻求与西方的和解，实现关系多元化，并投射力量。普京的第二个总统任期开启了民族主义和自信的外交政策，以重建俄罗斯的全球大国地位，促进全球多极化。鉴于俄罗斯在金砖国家中相对较弱的经济地位，依赖于多样化的政策倡议组合，例如自由主义普遍主义和西方霸权的修辞，以及国内冲突的工具化。俄罗斯对叙利亚冲突的军事和非军事干预--在这场冲突中，联合国和平进程因俄罗斯的阿斯塔纳和索契倡议以及军事干预而被搁置一边--确保了俄罗斯在国际安全事务中不可或缺的地位，避免了其在吞并克里米亚后的国际孤立。此外，俄罗斯对美国之前在中东和其他地区领导的“自由”和平建设倡议的批评--在这些地方，统治政权被推翻，导致国家失败、不稳定，有时甚至冲突重新出现--试图重塑和平建设和干预的规范，并以主权和不干涉内政为核心。因此，本项目旨在评估俄罗斯的建设和平举措是否挑战了自由的建设和平规范。此外，该项目旨在将叙利亚的和平进程纳入越来越多的确定和平建设，冲突管理与和平类型的工作中。虽然研究重点是俄罗斯对叙利亚冲突的干预，行动者之间的周期性互惠促进和限制代理的假设不仅需要分析国内和外部行动者对冲突转化的影响，而且需要分析它们之间的相互作用的影响在这个转变。此外，俄罗斯的作用是与参与冲突的其他行为体共同构成的;与其他行为体的相互互动促进和限制了俄罗斯的作用。因此，本项目采用建构主义本体论和基本原理，阐述了参与叙利亚冲突转型的团体的组成，以及他们的行动和互动对国际和当地战略环境的相互影响。这种构成分析对于理解行为体对其战略环境的解释背后的基本原理及其行动偏好，以及这些因素对冲突转变的影响是必要的;即从暴力冲突转变为非暴力冲突。为了分析不断演变的胁迫和外交环境，这是密不可分的，以及它们对俄罗斯和叙利亚参与和平进程的行为者的相互看法的影响，该项目将合并战略文化，有限理性和博弈论的概念，以评估以前的行动和互动塑造可行的战略选择的看法的方式。本分析旨在衡量俄罗斯的国际和地方和平建设倡议和军事干预在多大程度上导致了从暴力到非暴力冲突的转变，以及这些相互作用如何改变了国内行为者参与和平建设倡议和暴力冲突的机会结构。

The Syrian civil war has raged for just under ten years. The outbreak of the war coincided with the seemingdecline of US, or western, hegemony in the Middle East, opening opportunities for alternative powers to come tothe fore. The Syrian civil war provides the most detailed and complex case of rising power, namely Russian,intervention in one of the most internationalised and first socially mediated civil war. This project seeks tounderstand Russia's role in conflict transformation in the Syrian civil war and the impact of its actions on conflictdynamics.Since the fall of the USSR, Russian decision-makers have, at various points instrumentalised foreign policy toseek rapprochement with the West, diversify relations, and project power. Putin's second term as president hasushered a nationalist and assertive foreign policy to rebuild Russia's global power status and promote globalmultipolarity. Given Russia's relatively weak economic position amongst the BRICS, a diverse portfolio of policyinitiatives has been relied upon, such as the rhetorical contestation of liberal universalism and westernhegemony, and the instrumentalisation of civil conflict. Russia's military and non-military intervention in theSyrian conflict, in which the UN peace process was sidelined by Russia's Astana and Sochi initiatives andmilitary intervention, have ensured Russia's indispensability in matters of international security, precluding itsinternational isolation after its annexation of Crimea. Moreover, Russia's criticism of previous US-led 'liberal'peacebuilding initiatives in the Middle East and elsewhere, where ruling regimes were toppled, leading to statefailure, instability and, at times, conflict re-emergence, attempts to recast norms of peacebuilding andintervention with sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs at their core. Thus, this project seeks toassess whether Russia's peacebuilding initiatives challenge liberal peacebuilding norms. Additionally, this projectseeks to place the peace process in Syria within the growing works identifying typologies of peacebuilding,conflict management, and peace.While the research focus is on Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict, the assumption that cyclical reciprocitybetween actors facilitates and constrains agency necessitates not only the analysis of domestic and externalactors' influence over conflict transformation but also of the impact of their interaction on this shift. Additionally,Russia's role is co-constituted with other actors involved in the conflict; facilitated and restrained by reciprocalinteraction with other actors. Thus, this project takes on a constructivist ontology and rationale for investigatingthe composition of the groups involved in Syrian conflict transformation, as well as the reciprocal impact of theiractions and interactions on the international and local strategic environments. This compositional analysis isnecessary to understand the rationale behind actors' interpretations of their strategic environment and theirpreferences for action, as well as the effects of these elements on conflict transformation; that is the shift fromviolent to non-violent conflict. To analyse the evolving coercive and diplomatic environments, which areinextricably connected, and their impact upon the mutual perceptions of Russian and Syrian actors engaged inpeace processes, this project will amalgamate concepts of strategic culture, bounded rationality, and gametheory to assess the ways in which previous actions and interactions shape perceptions of feasible strategicchoices. This analysis seeks to gauge the extent to which Russia's international and local peacebuildinginitiatives and military intervention have induced a shift from violent to non-violent conflict and how thesereciprocal interactions have altered opportunity structures for domestic actors to engage in peacebuildinginitiatives and violent co