Multipolarity and non-state actors in conflict resolution: Russia and the Syrian opposition

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The Syrian civil war has raged for just under ten years. The outbreak of the war coincided with the seemingdecline of US, or western, hegemony in the Middle East, opening opportunities for alternative powers to come tothe fore. The Syrian civil war provides the most detailed and complex case of rising power, namely Russian,intervention in one of the most internationalised and first socially mediated civil war. This project seeks tounderstand Russia's role in conflict transformation in the Syrian civil war and the impact of its actions on conflictdynamics.Since the fall of the USSR, Russian decision-makers have, at various points instrumentalised foreign policy toseek rapprochement with the West, diversify relations, and project power. Putin's second term as president hasushered a nationalist and assertive foreign policy to rebuild Russia's global power status and promote globalmultipolarity. Given Russia's relatively weak economic position amongst the BRICS, a diverse portfolio of policyinitiatives has been relied upon, such as the rhetorical contestation of liberal universalism and westernhegemony, and the instrumentalisation of civil conflict. Russia's military and non-military intervention in theSyrian conflict, in which the UN peace process was sidelined by Russia's Astana and Sochi initiatives andmilitary intervention, have ensured Russia's indispensability in matters of international security, precluding itsinternational isolation after its annexation of Crimea. Moreover, Russia's criticism of previous US-led 'liberal'peacebuilding initiatives in the Middle East and elsewhere, where ruling regimes were toppled, leading to statefailure, instability and, at times, conflict re-emergence, attempts to recast norms of peacebuilding andintervention with sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs at their core. Thus, this project seeks toassess whether Russia's peacebuilding initiatives challenge liberal peacebuilding norms. Additionally, this projectseeks to place the peace process in Syria within the growing works identifying typologies of peacebuilding,conflict management, and peace.While the research focus is on Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict, the assumption that cyclical reciprocitybetween actors facilitates and constrains agency necessitates not only the analysis of domestic and externalactors' influence over conflict transformation but also of the impact of their interaction on this shift. Additionally,Russia's role is co-constituted with other actors involved in the conflict; facilitated and restrained by reciprocalinteraction with other actors. Thus, this project takes on a constructivist ontology and rationale for investigatingthe composition of the groups involved in Syrian conflict transformation, as well as the reciprocal impact of theiractions and interactions on the international and local strategic environments. This compositional analysis isnecessary to understand the rationale behind actors' interpretations of their strategic environment and theirpreferences for action, as well as the effects of these elements on conflict transformation; that is the shift fromviolent to non-violent conflict. To analyse the evolving coercive and diplomatic environments, which areinextricably connected, and their impact upon the mutual perceptions of Russian and Syrian actors engaged inpeace processes, this project will amalgamate concepts of strategic culture, bounded rationality, and gametheory to assess the ways in which previous actions and interactions shape perceptions of feasible strategicchoices. This analysis seeks to gauge the extent to which Russia's international and local peacebuildinginitiatives and military intervention have induced a shift from violent to non-violent conflict and how thesereciprocal interactions have altered opportunity structures for domestic actors to engage in peacebuildinginitiatives and violent co