Accelerating the adoption of novel mosquito control interventions by combining entomological, epidemiological and genetic data using modelling

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BackgroundThe World Mosquito Programme (WMP) has led the development of wMel Wolbachia as anovel intervention for dengue. Early releases in Indonesia have been highly successful (77%reduction in dengue) but establishing Wolbachia in mosquito populations in other areas (Riode Janeiro) has been more challenging.ObjectivesObjective 1: Identify gaps in Wolbachia coverage and understand why they occurUsing mosquito trapping data from seven countries and a range of freely-availableenvironmental data we will statistically test hypotheses of why successful implementation ofWolbachia is achievable in some areas but not others including the role of heterogeneousmosquito population genetics.Objective 2: Assess the epidemiological consequences of coverage gapsWe will parameterise a mechanistic mathematical model that incorporates human movementusing epidemiological data from WMP to test the impact of coverage gaps on transmissionand elimination probability. This will be validated by phylogenetic analyses of dengue virusisolates within and outside Wolbachia release areas.Objective 3: Predict how other forms of vector control can support the successful deploymentof WolbachiaBy extending the mathematical model in Objective 2 to include conventional mosquitocontrol tools, we will simulate new combinations of conventional and novel mosquito controltools to identify how implementation of Wolbachia can be optimised.Objective 4: Map where Wolbachia can eliminate denguePredictions from Wolbachia models will be extrapolated using geostatistical frameworks toproduce high resolution maps of the probability of dengue elimination across the sevencountries currently considering scale up of Wolbachia.