Accelerating the adoption of novel mosquito control interventions by combining entomological, epidemiological and genetic data using modelling

背景世界登革热规划署（WMP）已经领导了wMel Wolbachia作为登革热新干预手段的发展。在印度尼西亚的早期释放非常成功（登革热减少77%），但在其他地区的蚊子种群中建立了沃尔巴克氏体（里约热内卢）的情况更具挑战性。确定沃尔巴克氏体覆盖率的差距，并了解它们发生的原因使用来自七个国家的蚊子诱捕数据和一系列免费-利用现有的环境数据，我们将从统计学上检验为什么沃尔巴克氏体在某些地区可以成功实施，而在其他地区却不能，包括异质性蚊子种群的作用的假设目标2：评估覆盖缺口的流行病学后果我们将使用来自WMP的流行病学数据来测试覆盖缺口对传播和消除概率的影响，并将人口流动纳入一个机械数学模型。这将通过对沃尔巴克氏体释放区内外的登革病毒分离物的系统发育分析来验证。目标3：预测其他形式的病媒控制如何支持沃尔巴克氏体的成功部署通过扩展目标2中的数学模型以包括传统的蚊子控制工具，我们将模拟传统和新型蚊子控制工具的新组合，以确定如何优化沃尔巴克氏体的实施。目标4：沃尔巴克氏体可以消灭登革热的地图沃尔巴克氏体模型的预测将使用地质统计学框架进行外推，以产生目前考虑扩大沃尔巴克氏体规模的七个国家消灭登革热概率的高分辨率地图。

BackgroundThe World Mosquito Programme (WMP) has led the development of wMel Wolbachia as anovel intervention for dengue. Early releases in Indonesia have been highly successful (77%reduction in dengue) but establishing Wolbachia in mosquito populations in other areas (Riode Janeiro) has been more challenging.ObjectivesObjective 1: Identify gaps in Wolbachia coverage and understand why they occurUsing mosquito trapping data from seven countries and a range of freely-availableenvironmental data we will statistically test hypotheses of why successful implementation ofWolbachia is achievable in some areas but not others including the role of heterogeneousmosquito population genetics.Objective 2: Assess the epidemiological consequences of coverage gapsWe will parameterise a mechanistic mathematical model that incorporates human movementusing epidemiological data from WMP to test the impact of coverage gaps on transmissionand elimination probability. This will be validated by phylogenetic analyses of dengue virusisolates within and outside Wolbachia release areas.Objective 3: Predict how other forms of vector control can support the successful deploymentof WolbachiaBy extending the mathematical model in Objective 2 to include conventional mosquitocontrol tools, we will simulate new combinations of conventional and novel mosquito controltools to identify how implementation of Wolbachia can be optimised.Objective 4: Map where Wolbachia can eliminate denguePredictions from Wolbachia models will be extrapolated using geostatistical frameworks toproduce high resolution maps of the probability of dengue elimination across the sevencountries currently considering scale up of Wolbachia.