Incorporating decision-making in environmental emergencies into behavioural computational models for crisis planning

环境灾难的发生频率和严重程度都在增加，需要改进减灾规划。急救人员和政府对受影响社区使用的沟通方法通过增加或减少公民的信任和福祉来影响公民的反应。此外，社区成员可能会迟迟不离开他们的群体，并可能采取冒险行为来帮助他人。基于主体的疏散模型可以模拟突发事件下群体决策的行为结果，但目前的疏散模型大多是基于行为的理论假设，而不是经验证据。这个博士项目将确定公民在与气候相关的疏散中如何以及为什么对疏散指导做出反应。学生将通过关注公民如何和为什么做出决定来探索决策，例如被判断为最值得信任的信息来源，以及公民遵循指导存在的障碍和途径。在工作包1中，学生将进行系统的回顾，以确定以前的模型已将应急响应中的群体行为形式化的方法，并确定其研究的关键变量。在工作包2中，学生将进行一项基于在线地图的疏散路线选择研究，以探索这些变量对决策和遵从性的影响。最后，他们将开发一个ABM，定义这些变量并将其付诸实施。由此产生的模型将作为一个假设检验环境，根据经验证据确定公民如何应对与气候有关的紧急情况。这个项目将确保学生进行新颖的跨学科研究，结合灾害管理、行为决策和应急计划建模。因此，学生将发展在实验设计和实施方面的技能，以解决紧急情况下的人为因素，以及为危机规划和缓解提供信息的ABM。此外，该项目将为学生提供强大的影响机会，因为输出将在应急响应、疏散规划和危机缓解方面引起学术界和非学术界利益相关者的兴趣。

Environmental disasters are increasing in frequency and severity and require improved mitigation planning. Communication approaches used by first responders and governments towards affected communities impact citizen response by increasing or decreasing citizen trust and well-being. Moreover, community members may be slow to leave behind their group, and may engage in risk-taking behaviour to help others. Agent-based models (ABMs) can simulate behavioural outcomes of group decision-making in emergencies, but current evacuation models are mostly based on theoretical assumptions of behaviour rather than empirical evidence. This PhD project will identify how and why citizens respond to evacuation guidance in climate-related evacuations. The student will explore decision-making by focusing on how and why citizens make decisions, such as the source of information that is judged to be most trustworthy, and what barriers and avenues exist to citizens following guidance. In Work Package 1, the student will conduct a systematic review to identify ways that previous models have formalised group behaviour in emergency response and identify key variables for their research. In Work Package 2, the student will conduct an online map-based evacuation route choice study to explore the effects of these variables on decision-making and compliance. Finally, they will develop an ABM which defines and operationalises these variables. The resulting model will serve as a hypothesis testing environment to identify how citizens react to climate-related emergencies based on empirical evidence. This project will ensure the student conducts novel interdisciplinary research combining disaster management, behavioural decision making, and modelling for planning emergencies. As such, the student will develop skills in both experimental design and implementation to address human factors in emergencies, and ABMs to inform crisis planning and mitigation. Furthermore, the project will offer the student strong impact opportunities since the outputs will be of interest to both academic and non-academic stakeholders in emergency response, evacuation planning, and crisis mitigation