Accelerating the net zero transition: the case of whole house retrofit

根据气候变化委员会的建议，英国成为七国集团中第一个通过具有法律约束力的目标，即到2050年实现温室气体净零排放的经济体。实现净零需要在短时间内采取激进和变革性的行动，而这种规模和速度的能源系统转型没有先例。如何加速转型是一个关键的学术和政策问题。虽然实现1.5摄氏度目标的窗口很小，而且正在迅速关闭，但研究人员仍然对加速实现持乐观态度。Markard等人（2020）确定了政策努力需要解决的加速可持续性转型的五个挑战：1）整体系统的变化，2）多系统之间的相互作用，3）现有产业的衰退和阻力，4）消费者和社会实践的重大变化; 5）治理的日益复杂。我的研究将应用这个新的框架来理解加速的情况下，全屋改造的英国家园。如果不对住房存量进行近乎完全的脱碳，英国的气候变化目标将无法实现。建筑物的排放量占英国温室气体排放量的17%，必须在2050年达到净零排放，但自2015年以来，减排一直停滞不前。与更普遍的净零过渡一样，国内改造需要在短时间内大规模进行：所有2900万英国家庭需要在未来10-15年内升级到至少C级的能源性能证书。这让人们关注到，加速向净零过渡的核心是一种社会转型，而不仅仅是一种技术或经济转型。除了巨大的减排潜力，改造房屋还提供了显著的共同利益，例如减少能源账单，解决燃料贫困，为NHS节省大量资金，创造就业机会，降低能源转型的成本。尽管有明显的好处，但英国政府的政策迄今未能实现所需的住宅改造的大规模普及。为了达到脱碳目标，必须采取全面的“全屋”住宅改造方法。这涉及到采用多种措施，如绝缘，通风，低碳供暖系统和太阳能光伏等微型发电，将整个家庭视为一个系统，而不是一组断开的组件。关于Markard等人提出的挑战，这种方法需要：1）在家庭内部传播创新方面进行协调（2）寻求热力、电力和运输系统之间的协同增效作用;（3）积极逐步淘汰燃气/燃油锅炉和相关行业等技术; 4）消费者参与度的大幅增加和净零家庭社会实践的改变; 5）跨尺度的协调和适应性治理。对于那些参与整个房屋改造的人来说，这将意味着行为者制定、处理和提供改造干预措施的方式发生了重大变化。具体而言，加速理论的可操作性意味着创造持续的资金流，发展供应链和足够熟练的劳动力，改造的质量控制以及公众参与方法的转变。对于在其他地方被确定为可持续性转型的关键行为体的地方当局来说，这将需要对改造的系统、实践和惯例进行反思性学习。研究的目的是：a）通过对全屋改造案例的研究，推进关于可持续性转型加速的理论。B）就如何实现或限制转型加速提供实用的经验见解。c）通过与参与全系统改造治理的关键利益攸关方合作，创造有意义的影响

Following the advice of its Committee on Climate Change, the UK became the first G7 economy to adopt a legally binding target of reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Achieving net zero requires radical and transformative action in a short timeframe with no prior precedent for an energy system transformation at this scale and speed. How transitions can be accelerated is a key academic and policy question. Although the window for achieving the 1.5 degrees C goal is small and rapidly closing, there remains some optimism among researchers that acceleration can be achieved.Markard et al. (2020) identify five challenges to the acceleration of sustainability transitions that policy efforts need to address: 1) whole systems change, 2) interaction between multiple systems, 3) decline and resistance of existing industries, 4) major changes in consumer and social practices and 5) the increasing complexity of governance. My research will apply this novel framework for understanding acceleration to the case of whole-house retrofits of UK homes. The UK's climate change targets will not be met without the near-complete decarbonisation of the housing stock. Emissions from buildings, which account for 17% of UK GHG emissions, must reach net zero in 2050, but reductions have stalled since 2015. As with the net zero transition more generally, domestic retrofits need to happen on a mass scale and in a short timeframe: all 29 million UK homes need to be upgraded to an Energy Performance Certificate of at least C in the next 10-15 years. This brings to focus the fact that accelerating the transition to net zero is at its core a social and not just a technological or economic transformation.Apart from the vast emissions reductions potential, retrofitting homes offers significant co-benefits, such as reducing energy bills, tackling fuel poverty, major savings for the NHS, creating jobs, and lowering the costs of the energy transition. Despite the obvious benefits, UK government policy has so far failed to achieve the mass uptake of residential retrofit needed. In order to reach decarbonisation targets, the necessity of a comprehensive 'whole-house' approach to residential retrofit has been asserted. This involves the adoption of multiple measures such as insulation, draught proofing, ventilation, low carbon heating systems and electricity microgeneration like solar PV, treating the entire home as a system rather than a set of disconnected components. With reference to the challenges laid out by Markard et al, this approach would require: 1) coordination in the diffusion of innovations within households (insulation, heat pumps, microgeneration); 2) search for synergies between heat, power and transport systems; 3) Active phase-out of technologies such as gas/oil boilers and associated industries; 4) Major increase in consumer engagement and changed social practices in net zero homes; 5) Coordinated and adaptive governance across scales. For those involved in whole house retrofit, this would represent a step-change in the way that actors frame, approach and deliver retrofit interventions. In particular, operationalising the theory of acceleration implies the creation of sustained funding streams, the development of supply chains and adequately skilled workforces, quality control of retrofits, and a shift in public engagement approaches. For local authorities, identified elsewhere as key actors in sustainability transitions, this will require reflexive learning around the systems, practices, and routines of retrofits. The research will aim to: a) Advance theory on sustainability transitions acceleration through examination of the case of whole-house retrofit.b) Deliver practical empirical insights on how acceleration of transitions is enabled or constrained. c) Create meaningful impact through collaboration with key stakeholders engaged in whole-house retrofit governance