Ocean heat waves or frozen seas - Can we make seasonal ocean forecasts?

项目背景：季节性预测是气候科学的前沿，被许多（陆地）行业所使用，如农业，能源部门和商品交易。英国大陆架海域支持着一个巨大的、多样化的生态系统和许多行业（如渔业、旅游业、近海作业和航运）。所有这些都受到天气和气候变化的影响，影响在海面之上和之下。这促使人们对大范围时间尺度的预测和预测产生了兴趣。虽然该地区存在短期预测和长期气候预测，但目前缺乏季节性预测。英国气象局在海洋和大气模拟系统方面的最新进展为开发季节性海洋预报提供了可能性。季节性预报已被证明在世界其他地区（例如美国，Australia，Payne et al.（2017））。我们希望与您合作，为英国周围的沃茨制作第一个季节预报，并开始开发这样一个令人兴奋的系统的潜力。项目目的和方法：本项目将开发一个新的欧洲西北大陆架（NWS）季节预报产品。有各种方法可用于设计该区域的海洋预报。其中包括使用气象局开发的现有全球海洋预报系统，或“缩小”这些全球模型，以提供整个地区更详细的信息。您将根据现有的专业知识和兴趣，在监督团队的指导下帮助开发博士的关键科学问题。然而，最初的问题可能包括：全球模型能否预测整个NWS的季节性;某些属性比其他属性更可预测？缩小尺度的方法有哪些好处;增加细节是否意味着增加可预测性？这种可预测性背后的机制是什么？您将被期望花费至少3个月，理想情况下更多，在埃克塞特的Met Office HQ现场工作，在那里您将获得运行Met Office海洋预报模型的实践培训和经验。为了确保您的工作处于最前沿，您将有机会与该领域的国际领导者一起工作并交流知识，包括在丹麦国家水产资源研究所Mark Payne博士的小组中度过的时间。作为英国政府的主要海洋科学顾问，Cefas将在该项目中发挥咨询作用。将从科学和政策两个方向深入了解项目成果的应用。

Project Background:Seasonal forecasting is at the cutting edge of climate science and is used by many (terrestrial) industries, such as agriculture, the energy sector, and commodity trading. The UK shelf seas support a large diverse ecosystem, and many industries (e.g. fisheries, tourism, offshore operations, and shipping). All of these are affected by weather and climate variability, with impacts above and below the sea surface. This drives an appetite for predictions and projections over a wide range of timescales.While short-term forecasts and long-term climate projections exist for this region, seasonal forecasts are currently lacking. Recent progress in ocean and atmosphere modelling systems at the Met Office provide the potential for seasonal ocean forecasts to be developed. Seasonal forecasts have proved to be valuable in other regions of the world (e.g. U.S.A., Australia, Payne et al. (2017)). We want to work with you to produce the first seasonal forecasts for the waters around the UK, and begin to exploit the potential of such an exciting system.Project Aims and Methods:This project will develop a new seasonal forecasting product for the European Northwest Shelf (NWS). There are various approaches available for designing marine forecasts for this region. These include either use of existing global ocean forecasting systems developed at the Met Office, or "downscaling" these global models to provide more detailed information across the region.You will help develop the key scientific questions of the PhD with the guidance of the supervisory team, based on their existing expertise and interests. However, initial questions may include:Can global models predict seasonality across the NWS; are some properties more predictable than others?What benefits can be gained from downscaling methods; does increased detail mean increased predictability?What are the mechanisms behind this predictability?You will be expected to spend at least 3 months, and ideally much more, working on site at Met Office HQ, Exeter, where you will receive hands-on training and experience in running Met Office ocean forecast models. To ensure that your work is at the very cutting-edge, you will have the exciting opportunity to spend extended periods working with and exchanging knowledge with international leaders in this field, including time spent in Dr Mark Payne's group at the National Institute of Aquatic Resources in Denmark.As the primary marine science advisors to the UK government, Cefas will play an advisory role through this project. Insight will be provided into applications of the project outcomes, from both a science and policy direction.