The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Lee-Carter (1992, henceforth LC) developed a new method to model and forecast mortality, using standard methods for forecasting a stochastic time series, together with a simple model for the age-time surface of the log of mortality. This method has been widely accepted and used by researchers, and is used by some government forecasters. The Population Division of the United Nations would like to use it for the mortality component of its biannual population projections, and is planning to use it for its very long term (300 year) projections. This requires new research to adapt LC a) for use with limited data and b) for an interrelated system of populations. Research is also needed to address specific issues and problems: a) the changing age pattern or mortality decline; b) the recently discovered apparent linearity of life expectancy change. This project will address these topics using the NIA-funded Human Mortality Data Base, together with other data sources. Software will be produced to implement these procedures and made publicly available on a web site. Work will be closely coordinated with the Population Division of the United Nations to ensure that it meets its needs.