Europe's east and Soviet west - the GDP of the Baltic states, 1919-2019

欧洲东部和苏联西部 - 波罗的海国家的 GDP，1919-2019

• 批准号: 2598759
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2598759
• 关键词: Europe; east; Soviet; west; GDP

Historical GDP figures exist for most European economies today. Nevertheless, a unique part of the continent is still largely understudied. Since the collapse of the USSR Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have been successfully converging towards the European average (Staehr 2015, 274). Yet, due to the absence of data, we do not know whether the positive post-independence performance of the Baltic States is a modern phenomenon or rather a consequence of pre-1990 developments.During the DPhil, I hope to undertake the final step in my long-term project of constructing full national accounts for the Baltic States since the end of World War I. My central research question will be, what were the levels of GDP in the three Baltic States since their emergence as modern nation-states in 1918-1919 through the inter-war and Cold war periods until today?The DPhil project will consist of the following three parts: First, drawing on my recent work in constructing the GDP series for inter-war Lithuania, I shall employ the same national accounting procedures to estimate the inter-war income levels for Latvia and Estonia.Second, I shall concentrate on reconstructing the post-1940 GDP time series for all three Baltic States, estimating the 1940-1979 figures, and improving the ones available since 1980.Third, I will present the first comparative analysis of the 100 years of growth of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Eastern Europe.The methodological foundation of this research will be production-side GDP constructions by sector of origin. A separate benchmark will be used for the inter-war period and potentially two for 1940-1990. The figures will be presented and compared in a single GK$1990 series following the latest recommendations by the Maddison project scholars (Bolt and van Zanden 2020, 27).The construction of the first GDP series for all three Baltic States from 1918-1919 to the present will have considerable practical value. The new data may help answer crucial questions about the long-term economic performance in Eastern Europe. Why are the three Baltic States moving together today, although they were so different before 1940? Why did the countries under direct Soviet control (the Baltic States) outperform the semi-independent Communist states like Poland or Hungary? Does the Baltic case give credence to the belief that planned economies can be internationally competitive? What are the lessons of market-planned-market economy transitions that can be drawn from the experience of the most successful examples of such transformations?

今天，大多数欧洲经济体的历史GDP数据都存在。然而，非洲大陆的一个独特部分在很大程度上仍然没有得到充分研究。自苏联解体以来，立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚已经成功地向欧洲平均水平靠拢（Staehr 2015，274）。然而，由于缺乏数据，我们不知道波罗的海国家独立后的积极表现是一种现代现象，还是1990年前发展的结果，在博士研究生期间，我希望进行我的长期项目的最后一步，即建立自第一次世界大战结束以来波罗的海国家的全面国民账户。我的中心研究问题将是，什么是三个波罗的海国家的国内生产总值水平，因为他们作为现代民族国家出现在1918-1919年，通过战争和冷战期间，直到今天？哲学博士项目将包括以下三个部分：首先，根据我最近为立陶宛构建两次大战期间国内生产总值序列的工作，我将采用相同的国民核算程序来估计拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚两次大战期间的收入水平;其次，我将集中精力重建所有三个波罗的海国家1940年后的国内生产总值时间序列，估计1940-1979年的数字，第三，对立陶宛、拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚和东欧的100年经济增长进行首次比较分析。本研究的方法论基础是按来源部门划分的生产侧GDP结构。两次世界大战之间将采用一个单独的基准，1940-1990年可能采用两个基准。根据麦迪逊项目学者的最新建议（Bolt and货车Zanden，2020，第27页），这些数据将在一个单一的1990年GK $系列中呈现和比较，构建所有三个波罗的海国家从1918-1919年至今的第一个GDP系列将具有相当大的实用价值。新数据可能有助于回答有关东欧长期经济表现的关键问题。为什么波罗的海三国在1940年之前如此不同，但今天却走到了一起？为什么在苏联直接控制下的国家（波罗的海国家）的表现优于半独立的共产主义国家，如波兰或匈牙利？波罗的海的例子是否使人们相信计划经济能够在国际上具有竞争力？从市场经济向计划经济向市场经济转型的最成功例子中可以吸取哪些经验教训？