Europe's east and Soviet west - the GDP of the Baltic states, 1919-2019

今天，大多数欧洲经济体都存在历史上的GDP数据。尽管如此，非洲大陆的一个独特部分在很大程度上仍未得到充分研究。自苏联解体以来，立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚一直在成功地向欧洲平均水平趋同(Staehr 2015,274)。然而，由于缺乏数据，我们不知道波罗的海国家独立后的积极表现是现代现象，还是1990年前发展的结果。在DPhil期间，我希望完成我的长期项目的最后一步，即自第一次世界大战结束以来为波罗的海国家建立完整的国民账户。我的中心研究问题将是，自1918-1919年波罗的海三国在两次世界大战和冷战期间成为现代民族国家以来，直到今天，它们的GDP水平是什么？DPhil项目将包括以下三个部分：第一，根据我最近为两次世界大战期间的立陶宛构建GDP数列的工作，我将使用相同的国家核算程序来估计拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚的两次世界大战期间的收入水平。第二，我将集中精力重建所有三个波罗的海国家1940年后的GDP时间序列，估计1940-1979年的数字，并改进自1980年以来的数据。第三，我将第一次对立陶宛、拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚和东欧100年的增长进行比较分析。这项研究的方法基础将是按来源部门的生产侧GDP结构。一个单独的基准将用于两次世界大战之间的时期，并可能为1940-1990年使用两个基准。这些数字将按照Maddison项目学者的最新建议(Bolt和van Zanden 2020，27)，以1990年丹麦克朗的一系列数据进行比较。为所有三个波罗的海国家从1918-1919年到现在建立第一个GDP系列将具有相当大的实用价值。新数据可能有助于回答有关东欧长期经济表现的关键问题。为什么这三个波罗的海国家在1940年之前是如此不同，但今天却在一起行动？为什么苏联直接控制的国家(波罗的海国家)的表现优于波兰或匈牙利等半独立的共产主义国家？波罗的海案例是否证明了计划经济可以在国际上具有竞争力？市场-计划经济-市场经济转型的经验教训是什么，可以从这种转型最成功的例子中吸取教训？

Historical GDP figures exist for most European economies today. Nevertheless, a unique part of the continent is still largely understudied. Since the collapse of the USSR Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have been successfully converging towards the European average (Staehr 2015, 274). Yet, due to the absence of data, we do not know whether the positive post-independence performance of the Baltic States is a modern phenomenon or rather a consequence of pre-1990 developments.During the DPhil, I hope to undertake the final step in my long-term project of constructing full national accounts for the Baltic States since the end of World War I. My central research question will be, what were the levels of GDP in the three Baltic States since their emergence as modern nation-states in 1918-1919 through the inter-war and Cold war periods until today?The DPhil project will consist of the following three parts: First, drawing on my recent work in constructing the GDP series for inter-war Lithuania, I shall employ the same national accounting procedures to estimate the inter-war income levels for Latvia and Estonia.Second, I shall concentrate on reconstructing the post-1940 GDP time series for all three Baltic States, estimating the 1940-1979 figures, and improving the ones available since 1980.Third, I will present the first comparative analysis of the 100 years of growth of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Eastern Europe.The methodological foundation of this research will be production-side GDP constructions by sector of origin. A separate benchmark will be used for the inter-war period and potentially two for 1940-1990. The figures will be presented and compared in a single GK$1990 series following the latest recommendations by the Maddison project scholars (Bolt and van Zanden 2020, 27).The construction of the first GDP series for all three Baltic States from 1918-1919 to the present will have considerable practical value. The new data may help answer crucial questions about the long-term economic performance in Eastern Europe. Why are the three Baltic States moving together today, although they were so different before 1940? Why did the countries under direct Soviet control (the Baltic States) outperform the semi-independent Communist states like Poland or Hungary? Does the Baltic case give credence to the belief that planned economies can be internationally competitive? What are the lessons of market-planned-market economy transitions that can be drawn from the experience of the most successful examples of such transformations?