Ethnicity, Marriage, and Fertility in Kazakhstan

描述（由申请人提供）：虽然人们普遍认为戏剧性的政治和经济动荡会影响人口选择和结果，但人们对这些影响的复杂性知之甚少。经常伴随着社会动荡的种族和宗教紧张局势使这些影响进一步复杂化。拟议的项目将通过分析哈萨克斯坦不同民族的成员如何适应苏联改革及其随后的解体、哈萨克斯坦的独立以及从中央计划经济向市场经济的过渡所产生的激进和多方面的社会变革，来探索这些复杂性。哈萨克斯坦后苏联时代的转型除了带来许多积极后果外，还加剧了社会经济不平等，加剧了该国大多数人口的不安全感。除了社会经济方面的挑战，独立后的哈萨克斯坦还面临着日益加剧的种族紧张局势，主要是当地哈萨克人和欧洲裔定居者后裔之间的紧张局势。近年来，伊斯兰原教旨主义的威胁日益严重。虽然这些经济和民族宗教挑战及其对移民模式和趋势的影响经常在文献中得到解决，但很少有人知道这些挑战如何影响哈萨克斯坦居民在婚姻和生育方面的偏好和选择。然而，婚姻和生育是重要的人口机制，个人通过这些机制来适应环境的变化。此外，在正在进行的社会变革中具有不同背景特征和利害关系的人口群体可能以不同的方式参与这些调整机制。这些调整的结果对社会的生存和稳定至关重要，特别是在哈萨克斯坦这样一个种族和宗教分裂的国家。该项目将利用1995年和1999年哈萨克斯坦人口和健康调查的数据，结合最近十年一次的人口普查、生命登记和健康统计的数据，审查婚姻和生殖动态，特别侧重于初次结婚时间、婚内生育时间和诉诸人工流产的种族差异。拟议的项目将构成一个必要的第一步，朝着更全面的社会人口调整研究戏剧性的社会变化，因此将导致随后的NIH申请。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): While it is widely acknowledged that dramatic political and economic upheavals can affect demographic choices and outcomes, the complexities of these effects are poorly understood. Ethnic and religious tensions that often accompany societal upheavals further complicate these effects. The proposed project will explore these complexities by analyzing how members of different ethnic groups in Kazakhstan have adapted their marital and reproductive behavior to the radical and multidimensional societal transformations produced by the reforms in the Soviet Union and its subsequent collapse, Kazakhstan's independence, and its transition from a centrally-planned to a market economy. Along with its numerous positive consequences, the post-Soviet transition in Kazakhstan has also increased socioeconomic inequalities and exacerbated insecurities of the majority of the country's population. In addition to socioeconomic challenges, independent Kazakhstan has experienced rising ethnic tensions, primarily between indigenous Kazakhs and descendents of European-origin settlers, and in recent years, a growing threat of Islamic fundamentalism. Although these economic and ethnoreligious challenges and their implications for migratory patterns and trends are often addressed in the literature, very little is known about how these challenges may have affected Kazakhstan's residents' preferences and choices regarding marriage and childbearing. Yet marriage and reproduction are important demographic mechanisms through which individuals adjust to changes in their environments. Moreover, population segments with different background characteristics and stakes in the ongoing societal transformations may engage these adjustment mechanisms differently. The outcomes of these adjustments are critical to society's viability and stability, especially in the case of such an ethnically and religiously divided country as Kazakhstan. The project will utilize data from the 1995 and 1999 Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS), combined with data from the recent decennial censuses and vital registration and health statistics to examine marital and reproductive dynamics, focusing in particular on ethnic differences in timing of first marriage, timing of marital births, and recourse to induced abortion. The proposed project will constitute a necessary initial step toward a more comprehensive study of sociodemographic adjustments to dramatic societal changes and will therefore lead to a subsequent NIH application.