Crowding in stability? Government Debt, Portfolio Choices and the Goldilocks Principle

拥挤稳定？

• 批准号: 2602199
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2602199
• 关键词: Crowding; stability; Government; Debt; Portfolio

My thesis aims to investigate the effects of an expansion and contraction of 'safe asset' supply on real and financial variables. To model this interaction between the real and financial side of the economy I will utilise a Stock Flow Consistent (SFC) framework. I aim to show in an economy with strong economic growth but excess savings that the government, with its debt being the benchmark 'safe asset', can issue enough 'safe-assets' to prevent speculative bubbles from forming. Furthermore, when an economy does enter a recession, the government can use this same method to prevent it from worsening. This flips the whole discussion about government debt. Stabilisation policy now becomes how much government debt is required; not how much is too much. I have chosen to use a SFC framework to analyse the effects of variations in SA supply. Caverzasi and Godin (2015) point to 3 key elements of SFC models: i) consistency of the overall economy, ii) the integration of the real and financial sides of the economy and iii) the construction of the long run as a chain of the short run. All three are appropriate for my thesis as SA issuance will have implications for all sectors of the economy and likely have short and long-run effects. The construction of an accounting framework allows me to model consistent portfolio rebalancing choices and their effects on real variables. Further, the behavioural equations allow me to analyse risk aversion in a different way to the OLG model (Caballero and Farhi, 2018). With the model completed, then various scenarios can be simulated to analyse system-wide dynamics in non-ergodic time- this is exactly what I hope to achieve (Veronese Passarella, 2019)This thesis will add to the SFC literature in two ways: firstly by conducting an analysis specifically on SA distribution in a SFC framework and second by adding to the emerging literature on empirical SFC models. Much of the SFC literature up to this point has been theoretical, with few attempts made to fit the model to real world data (Zezza and Zezza, 2019). Empirical models, whilst more difficult, can be more useful for policy recommendations and forecasting- "tools for thinking" tailored to the hypothesis in question. My aim to build a SFC model for safe asset portfolio decisions for two economies, the US and Japan, is appropriate because both countries share features that I wish to investigate (high debt stocks), they have a key difference that will provide further insight (variations in location of debt ownership) and flow-of-funds data for both countries are substantive (see https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/sj/index.htm/ ; and https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/) (Veronese Passarella, 2019). The role of government debt as a SA raises important questions for macroeconomic policy that can be readily incorporated into Post-Keynesian theorising, which I intend to show using SFC modelling.

我的论文旨在研究“安全资产”供给的扩张和收缩对真实的和金融变量的影响。为了模拟经济的真实的和金融方面之间的这种相互作用，我将利用股票流量一致（SFC）框架。我的目标是表明，在一个经济增长强劲但储蓄过剩的经济体中，政府可以发行足够的“安全资产”，以防止投机泡沫的形成。此外，当经济确实进入衰退时，政府可以使用同样的方法来防止经济恶化。这颠覆了关于政府债务的整个讨论。稳定政策现在变成了需要多少政府债务，而不是多少就太多。我选择使用SFC框架来分析SA供应变化的影响。Caverzasi和Godin（2015）指出了SFC模型的3个关键要素：i）整体经济的一致性，ii）经济的真实的和金融方面的整合，iii）长期作为短期链的构建。所有这三个都适合我的论文，因为SA发行将对所有经济部门产生影响，并可能产生短期和长期影响。会计框架的构建使我能够对一致的投资组合再平衡选择及其对真实的变量的影响进行建模。此外，行为方程允许我以与OLG模型不同的方式分析风险厌恶（Caballero和Farhi，2018）。随着模型的完成，可以模拟各种场景来分析非遍历时间内的系统动态-这正是我希望实现的（Veronese Passarella，2019）本论文将以两种方式添加到SFC文献中：首先通过在SFC框架中专门对SA分布进行分析，其次通过添加到经验SFC模型的新兴文献中。到目前为止，大部分SFC文献都是理论性的，很少尝试将模型拟合到真实的世界数据（Zezza和Zezza，2019）。经验模型虽然比较困难，但对于政策建议和预测可能更有用-这是根据有关假设量身定做的“思考工具”。我的目标是为美国和日本这两个经济体建立一个用于安全资产投资组合决策的SFC模型，这是合适的，因为这两个国家都有我希望调查的特征（高债务存量），它们有一个关键的差异，这将提供进一步的洞察力（债务所有权位置的变化），并且这两个国家的资金流数据是实质性的（见https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/sj/index.htm/;和https：//www.federalreserve.gov/releas/z1/）（Veronese Passarella，2019）。政府债务作为SA的角色为宏观经济政策提出了重要的问题，这些问题可以很容易地纳入后凯恩斯理论，我打算使用SFC模型来展示。