Energy Security Versus Fuel Poverty: Protecting Vulnerable Households During an Energy Crisis

我的博士学位旨在分析英国目前的燃料贫困和能源安全问题，最终目标是提出地方和国家政策建议，以解决最严重的燃料贫困问题。在文献中，人们普遍认为家庭收入、家庭构成、建筑效率和能源价格是影响燃料贫困风险的主要因素；然而，目前在英国采用的低收入低能源效率（LILEE）对燃料贫困的定义与这一标准相矛盾，并将（潜在的）毫无根据的重点放在能源绩效证书（EPC）评级上。我博士的第一项研究，题为《对低收入低能源效率（LILEE）测量燃料贫困方法的实证批评》，表明英国目前的燃料贫困指标（LILEE）严重低估了实际燃料贫困的真实比率（见http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4583384预印本）。这些发现是对诺丁汉和伦敦的燃料贫困进行两阶段分析的结果：第一阶段涉及根据LILEE度量标准的缺陷，对燃料贫困统计中遗漏的经济脆弱家庭进行估计；第二阶段分析了在伦敦收集的调查数据，显示能源不安全（指家庭自我报告的能力/无法负担足够的能源）比伦敦2022年冬季的LILEE燃料贫困率高出约145%。鉴于第一项研究的结果，我博士剩余时间的研究问题如下：研究问题1：在英国引入新的/修订的燃料贫困指标有多可行？研究问题二：不同类型的健康问题或残疾如何影响燃料贫穷/能源安全的风险？研究问题三：是否可以开发一种事后机器学习（ML）方法来增强离散结果建模框架中异质变量的可解释性和理解？在这一点上，大多数焦点将放在设计，可行性和建议一个新的或修订的燃料贫困指标在英国（根据RQI）。这项研究的结果可以用来显示LILEE的低估程度，以及改进对真正燃料贫乏（即能源不安全）家庭的识别。在提出新指标之后，将探索政治影响途径，以期形成未来衡量英格兰燃料贫困的方法。

My PhD aims to analyse current experiences of fuel poverty and energy security in the UK, with the ultimate aim of generating local and national policy recommendations to remedy the most severe cases of fuel poverty. In the literature, there is a general consensus that household income, household composition, building efficiency and energy prices are the main contributing factors affecting fuel poverty risk; however, the Low Income Low Energy Efficiency (LILEE) definition of fuel poverty, which is currently adopted in England, contradicts this set of criteria, and places a (potentially) unwarranted level of focus on Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings instead.The first study of my PhD, entitled An Empirical Critique of the Low Income Low Energy Efficiency (LILEE) Approach to Measuring Fuel Poverty, showed that the current fuel poverty metric in England (LILEE) significantly underestimates the true rate of on-the-ground fuel poverty (see http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4583384 for preprint). These findings are the result of a two-stage analysis of fuel poverty in Nottingham and London: stage 1 involved the estimation of financially vulnerable households omitted from fuel poverty statistics according to the flawed criteria of the LILEE metric; while stage 2 analysed survey data collected in London to show that energy insecurity (which refers to a household's self-reported ability/inability to afford sufficient energy) was around 145% higher than the LILEE fuel poverty rate for London in winter 2022. Given the findings of the first study, the research questions for the remainder of my PhD are as follows:Research Question I: How feasible is the introduction of a new/amended fuel poverty metric in England?Research Question II: How do different types of health problems or disabilities affect risk of fuel poverty/energy security?Research Question III: Can a post-hoc machine learning (ML) method be developed to enhance the interpretability and understanding of heterogenous variables in discrete outcome modelling frameworks?At this point, most focus will be afforded to the design, feasibility and proposal of a new or amended fuel poverty metric in England (as per RQI). The findings of this study can be used to show the degree of LILEE's underestimation, as well as improving the identification of truly fuel poor (i.e., energy insecure) households. Following the proposal of a new metric, political impact routes will be explored, with a view to shaping the future approach to measuring fuel poverty in England.