The Political Economy of Basel III: Liquidity Hierarchies and Policy Autonomy in Subordinate Financialized Economies.

摘要本项目研究巴塞尔协议 III 与整个国际政治经济中货币权力分配之间的关系。该工作特别关注巴塞尔协议III的流动性等级制度对全球金融体系核心之外的经济政策自主权的影响。它对结构性流动性等级制度在限制“从属金融化”政治经济体的政策自主权方面的作用进行了定量的政治经济学估计，以及这种全球动态如何被巴塞尔协议 III 的监管趋同所打断和扰乱。特定国家与巴塞尔 III 流动性规则的差异的制度和政治特征是根据全球政治经济的结构性货币动态进行背景和解释的，对现有公共政策文献提出了严格的批评。这项工作阐明了宏观审慎稳定项目中的一个矛盾，即该工具包旨在嵌入金融化，有可能通过加剧货币权力的不对称性来促进全球金融的外围性。文献与理论这个跨学科项目交织了多个不同的文献，特别是关于监管趋同的战略决定因素的公共政策辩论，以及宏观审慎监管有效性的宏观经济问题。这里关于“从属金融化”和“依存发展”的批判政治经济学文献可以作为理解这个问题的理论图谱。尽管所有国际清算银行成员都出于各种战略动机寻求广泛围绕巴塞尔协议 III，但只有某些国家拥有能够发行合格监管资本（即高质量流动资产 (HQLA)）的多元化机构。在没有通过谈判达成分歧的情况下，来自全球北方的主权债务成为遵守流动性覆盖率等新审慎政策的默认手段，可能会加剧现有的依赖和从属关系。到目前为止，还没有将巴塞尔协议 III 纳入货币等级制度的关键文献中的综合研究，也没有这种动态在构建巴塞尔协议 III 的全球实施中的作用的综合研究。方法和数据该研究以国际货币基金组织的“综合宏观审慎政策数据库”为基础，通过提取有关巴塞尔协议 III 流动性处理差异的新数据。这将通过对符合以下标准的国家审慎当局的访谈和文件来进行：处于全球金融体系核心之外的“金融化”政治经济体。该数据集将记录各州为构建 HQLA 和融资组合而达成的替代安排，例如外币计价的资产、与货币当局签订的合同流动性便利或合并较低级别的资产。然后，这些数据将用于创建比现有指标更实质性的经验指标来估计流动性结构，例如空间代理或 M2 美元比率，并通过结构模型针对现有公开的宏观经济数据集进行测试，以估计巴塞尔 III 对全球货币体系结构的潜在影响，以及其对案例研究国家的财政和货币足迹。结果 总之，该项目将实现三个核心流程：1）针对各国与巴塞尔 III 流动性规则的差异制定丰富的分析图，2）对推动不同实施的因素进行严格评估，其中包括结构性货币等级制度作为驱动因素，3）严格评估这些等级制度如何影响宏观审慎监管相对于全球金融从属关系的有效性。

SummaryThis project investigates the relationship between Basel III and the distribution of monetary power throughout the international political economy. In particular, the work focuses on the impact of Basel III's liquidity hierarchy on economic policy autonomy outside the core of the global financial system. It presents a quantitative, political-econometric estimation of the role of structural liquidity hierarchies in constraining policy autonomy in 'subordinate financialised' political economies, and how this global dynamic is interrupted and disturbed by regulatory convergence around Basel III. The institutional and political characteristics of specific national divergences from Basel III liquidity rules are contextualised and explained in relation to the structural monetary dynamics of the global political economy, presenting a rigorous critique of the extant public policy literature. The work elucidates a contradiction within the macroprudential stabilization project, that this toolkit, designed to embed financialization, has the potential to promote peripherality to global finance by exacerbating asymmetries of monetary power.Literature & TheoriesThis inter-disciplinary project intertwines multiple separate literatures, in particular the public policy debate on the strategic determinants of regulatory convergence, and macro-economic questions of the efficacy of macroprudential supervision. The critical political economy literature on "subordinate financialization" and "dependent development" here serves as a theoretical map from which to understand the problem. Whilst all BIS members seek to converge broadly around Basel III for various strategic motives, only certain states are home to a diversity of institutions capable of issuing eligible regulatory capital i.e. High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA). In the absence of negotiated divergences, sovereign debt from the global north serves as the default means of compliance with new prudential policies such as the liquidity coverage ratio, potentially exacerbating extant relationships of dependency and subordination. As of yet, there are no comprehensive studies incorporating Basel III into the critical literature on monetary hierarchy, or the role of this dynamic in structuring Basel III's global implementation.Methodology & DataThe study builds upon the IMF's 'Integrated Macro Prudential Policy database' by extracting new data on divergences from Basel III's liquidity treatment. This will be conducted via interviews with, and documents from, prudential authorities in states which fit the criteria: 'financialized' political economies, outside the core of the global financial system. This dataset will log what alternative arrangements states have entered into to construct HQLA and funding portfolios, e.g. foreign currency denominated assets, contractual liquidity facilities with monetary authorities, or the incorporation of lower grade assets. This data will then be used to create more substantive empirical metrics to estimate the structure of liquidity than existing ones, e.g. spatial proxies or M2-Dollar ratios, and tested through structural models against existing publicly available macro-economic datasets to estimate Basel III's potential impact on the structure of the global monetary system, and its fiscal and monetary footprint on states of the case study.OutcomesIn summary, three core processes will be achieved from this project: 1) the development of a rich analytical map of national divergences from Basel III liquidity rules, 2) a critical assessment of the factors motivating divergent implementation which incorporates structural monetary hierarchies as a driving factor, and 3) a rigorous evaluation of how those hierarchies impact the efficacy of macroprudential supervision vis-à-vis relationships of subordination in global finance.