The Political Economy of Basel III: Liquidity Hierarchies and Policy Autonomy in Subordinate Financialized Economies.

本项目研究巴塞尔协议III与国际政治经济中货币权力分配的关系。特别是，这项工作的重点是巴塞尔III的流动性等级对全球金融体系核心之外的经济政策自主权的影响。它对结构性流动性等级结构在限制“从属金融化”政治经济体的政策自主权方面的作用，以及围绕巴塞尔协议III的监管趋同如何中断和干扰这一全球动态，提出了一种定量的政治计量经济学估计。本文结合全球政治经济的结构性货币动态，对特定国家偏离巴塞尔协议III流动性规则的制度和政治特征进行了背景分析和解释，对现有的公共政策文献提出了严厉的批评。这项工作阐明了宏观审慎稳定项目中的一个矛盾，即这个旨在嵌入金融化的工具包有可能通过加剧货币权力的不对称而促进全球金融的外围。文献与理论这个跨学科项目交织在多个独立的文献中，特别是关于监管趋同的战略决定因素的公共政策辩论，以及宏观审慎监管有效性的宏观经济问题。这里关于“从属金融化”和“依附发展”的政治经济学批判文献是理解这一问题的理论图谱。尽管国际清算银行的所有成员都出于各种战略动机寻求广泛地趋同于《巴塞尔协议III》，但只有某些州拥有各种能够发行合格监管资本的机构，即优质流动资产(HQLA)。在没有通过协商达成分歧的情况下，来自全球北部的主权债务是遵守新的审慎政策(如流动性覆盖率)的默认手段，可能会加剧现有的依赖关系和从属关系。到目前为止，还没有全面的研究将巴塞尔III纳入关于货币等级的关键文献，或者这种动态在构建巴塞尔III全球实施中的作用。方法论和数据这项研究建立在国际货币基金组织的“综合宏观审慎政策数据库”的基础上，通过提取有关巴塞尔III流动性处理的分歧的新数据。这将通过对符合以下标准的国家的审慎当局的采访和文件进行：全球金融体系核心之外的金融化政治经济体。该数据集将记录各国为构建HQLA和融资组合而达成的替代安排，例如以外币计价的资产、与货币当局签订的合同流动性安排，或纳入较低等级的资产。然后，这些数据将被用来创建比现有指标更实质性的经验指标，以估计流动性的结构，例如空间代理或M2-美元比率，并通过结构模型与现有的公开可用宏观经济数据集进行测试，以估计巴塞尔III对全球货币体系结构的潜在影响，以及其对案例研究状况的财政和货币足迹。总而言之，该项目将实现三个核心过程：1)开发丰富的分析地图，了解各国与巴塞尔III流动性规则的差异；2)对推动不同实施的因素进行批判性评估，其中纳入结构性货币等级作为驱动因素，3)严格评估与全球金融从属关系相比，这些等级制度如何影响宏观审慎监管的效力。

SummaryThis project investigates the relationship between Basel III and the distribution of monetary power throughout the international political economy. In particular, the work focuses on the impact of Basel III's liquidity hierarchy on economic policy autonomy outside the core of the global financial system. It presents a quantitative, political-econometric estimation of the role of structural liquidity hierarchies in constraining policy autonomy in 'subordinate financialised' political economies, and how this global dynamic is interrupted and disturbed by regulatory convergence around Basel III. The institutional and political characteristics of specific national divergences from Basel III liquidity rules are contextualised and explained in relation to the structural monetary dynamics of the global political economy, presenting a rigorous critique of the extant public policy literature. The work elucidates a contradiction within the macroprudential stabilization project, that this toolkit, designed to embed financialization, has the potential to promote peripherality to global finance by exacerbating asymmetries of monetary power.Literature & TheoriesThis inter-disciplinary project intertwines multiple separate literatures, in particular the public policy debate on the strategic determinants of regulatory convergence, and macro-economic questions of the efficacy of macroprudential supervision. The critical political economy literature on "subordinate financialization" and "dependent development" here serves as a theoretical map from which to understand the problem. Whilst all BIS members seek to converge broadly around Basel III for various strategic motives, only certain states are home to a diversity of institutions capable of issuing eligible regulatory capital i.e. High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA). In the absence of negotiated divergences, sovereign debt from the global north serves as the default means of compliance with new prudential policies such as the liquidity coverage ratio, potentially exacerbating extant relationships of dependency and subordination. As of yet, there are no comprehensive studies incorporating Basel III into the critical literature on monetary hierarchy, or the role of this dynamic in structuring Basel III's global implementation.Methodology & DataThe study builds upon the IMF's 'Integrated Macro Prudential Policy database' by extracting new data on divergences from Basel III's liquidity treatment. This will be conducted via interviews with, and documents from, prudential authorities in states which fit the criteria: 'financialized' political economies, outside the core of the global financial system. This dataset will log what alternative arrangements states have entered into to construct HQLA and funding portfolios, e.g. foreign currency denominated assets, contractual liquidity facilities with monetary authorities, or the incorporation of lower grade assets. This data will then be used to create more substantive empirical metrics to estimate the structure of liquidity than existing ones, e.g. spatial proxies or M2-Dollar ratios, and tested through structural models against existing publicly available macro-economic datasets to estimate Basel III's potential impact on the structure of the global monetary system, and its fiscal and monetary footprint on states of the case study.OutcomesIn summary, three core processes will be achieved from this project: 1) the development of a rich analytical map of national divergences from Basel III liquidity rules, 2) a critical assessment of the factors motivating divergent implementation which incorporates structural monetary hierarchies as a driving factor, and 3) a rigorous evaluation of how those hierarchies impact the efficacy of macroprudential supervision vis-à-vis relationships of subordination in global finance.