The Political Economy of Basel III: Liquidity Hierarchies and Policy Autonomy in Subordinate Financialized Economies.

本项目研究巴塞尔协议III与国际政治经济中货币权力分配之间的关系。本文特别关注巴塞尔协议III的流动性层级对全球金融体系核心之外的经济政策自主权的影响。它提出了一种定量的、政治计量经济学的估计，即结构性流动性等级在限制“从属金融化”政治经济中政策自主权方面的作用，以及这种全球动态是如何被围绕巴塞尔协议III的监管趋同所打断和扰乱的。具体国家与《巴塞尔协议III》流动性规则分歧的制度和政治特征被置于全球政治经济的结构性货币动态背景下进行解释，并对现有的公共政策文献进行了严格的批评。这项工作阐明了宏观审慎稳定项目中的一个矛盾，即这个旨在嵌入金融化的工具包有可能通过加剧货币权力的不对称来促进全球金融的外围性。文献与理论这个跨学科项目交织了多个独立的文献，特别是关于监管趋同的战略决定因素的公共政策辩论，以及宏观审慎监管有效性的宏观经济问题。关于“从属金融化”和“依赖发展”的批判性政治经济学文献在这里可以作为理解问题的理论地图。尽管出于各种战略动机，国际清算银行的所有成员国都寻求在巴塞尔协议III周围广泛趋同，但只有某些国家拥有能够发行合格监管资本（即高质量流动资产（HQLA））的各种机构。在没有协商分歧的情况下，来自全球北方的主权债务成为遵守流动性覆盖率等新审慎政策的默认手段，这可能会加剧现有的依赖和从属关系。到目前为止，还没有全面的研究将巴塞尔协议III纳入货币等级的关键文献，或者这种动态在构建巴塞尔协议III的全球实施中的作用。本研究建立在国际货币基金组织的“综合宏观审慎政策数据库”的基础上，提取了有关巴塞尔协议III流动性处理差异的新数据。这将通过与符合标准的国家的审慎当局进行访谈和提供文件来进行：“金融化”的政治经济，不在全球金融体系的核心。该数据集将记录各州为构建HQLA和融资组合而采取的替代安排，例如外币计价资产、与货币当局签订的合同流动性便利，或纳入较低等级资产。然后，这些数据将用于创建比现有的更实质性的经验指标来估计流动性结构，例如空间代理或m2 -美元比率，并通过针对现有公开的宏观经济数据集的结构模型进行测试，以估计巴塞尔协议III对全球货币体系结构的潜在影响，以及其对案例研究国家的财政和货币足迹。总之，本项目将实现三个核心过程：1)开发各国与巴塞尔III流动性规则分歧的丰富分析地图，2)对激励分歧实施的因素进行批判性评估，其中包括结构性货币等级作为驱动因素，以及3)严格评估这些等级如何影响宏观审慎监管的效力-à-vis全球金融中的从属关系。

SummaryThis project investigates the relationship between Basel III and the distribution of monetary power throughout the international political economy. In particular, the work focuses on the impact of Basel III's liquidity hierarchy on economic policy autonomy outside the core of the global financial system. It presents a quantitative, political-econometric estimation of the role of structural liquidity hierarchies in constraining policy autonomy in 'subordinate financialised' political economies, and how this global dynamic is interrupted and disturbed by regulatory convergence around Basel III. The institutional and political characteristics of specific national divergences from Basel III liquidity rules are contextualised and explained in relation to the structural monetary dynamics of the global political economy, presenting a rigorous critique of the extant public policy literature. The work elucidates a contradiction within the macroprudential stabilization project, that this toolkit, designed to embed financialization, has the potential to promote peripherality to global finance by exacerbating asymmetries of monetary power.Literature & TheoriesThis inter-disciplinary project intertwines multiple separate literatures, in particular the public policy debate on the strategic determinants of regulatory convergence, and macro-economic questions of the efficacy of macroprudential supervision. The critical political economy literature on "subordinate financialization" and "dependent development" here serves as a theoretical map from which to understand the problem. Whilst all BIS members seek to converge broadly around Basel III for various strategic motives, only certain states are home to a diversity of institutions capable of issuing eligible regulatory capital i.e. High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA). In the absence of negotiated divergences, sovereign debt from the global north serves as the default means of compliance with new prudential policies such as the liquidity coverage ratio, potentially exacerbating extant relationships of dependency and subordination. As of yet, there are no comprehensive studies incorporating Basel III into the critical literature on monetary hierarchy, or the role of this dynamic in structuring Basel III's global implementation.Methodology & DataThe study builds upon the IMF's 'Integrated Macro Prudential Policy database' by extracting new data on divergences from Basel III's liquidity treatment. This will be conducted via interviews with, and documents from, prudential authorities in states which fit the criteria: 'financialized' political economies, outside the core of the global financial system. This dataset will log what alternative arrangements states have entered into to construct HQLA and funding portfolios, e.g. foreign currency denominated assets, contractual liquidity facilities with monetary authorities, or the incorporation of lower grade assets. This data will then be used to create more substantive empirical metrics to estimate the structure of liquidity than existing ones, e.g. spatial proxies or M2-Dollar ratios, and tested through structural models against existing publicly available macro-economic datasets to estimate Basel III's potential impact on the structure of the global monetary system, and its fiscal and monetary footprint on states of the case study.OutcomesIn summary, three core processes will be achieved from this project: 1) the development of a rich analytical map of national divergences from Basel III liquidity rules, 2) a critical assessment of the factors motivating divergent implementation which incorporates structural monetary hierarchies as a driving factor, and 3) a rigorous evaluation of how those hierarchies impact the efficacy of macroprudential supervision vis-à-vis relationships of subordination in global finance.