Non-CO2 effects of aviation on climate

航空对气候的非二氧化碳影响

• 批准号: 2607863
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2607863
• 关键词: Non; CO2; effects; aviation; climate

This project will use state-of-the-art models and observations to quantify the climatic effect of aviation non-CO2 emissions from current and future generation aircraft.Global aviation emissions have grown strongly during the past 50 years, accelerating from an annually averaged growth rate of 2.2% over 1970-2012 to 5% during 2013-2018. While existing forecasts predict a continuation of this trend, the COVID-19 pandemic has raised new questions in terms of the evolution of air traffic during the next few decades (Forster et al., 2020). Aviation already contributes about 2.5% of the total global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and its overall effect on climate is substantially larger. Current aviation radiative forcing estimates indicate that the contribution of air traffic to global warming is roughly 5% (2-14% uncertainty range), with a significant proportion (~60%) caused by non-CO2 effects. The largest of these non-CO2 effects are caused by aviation-induced cloudiness (AIC) (Kärcher, 2018) and emissions of NOx (leading to changes in ozone and methane), water vapour and aerosols. Since 2010, the aviation industry has pledged to halve its global CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. However, if we are to achieve the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal of keeping global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, then even stronger aviation emission cuts are needed. A new aim of reaching a net zero-carbon aviation system has recently been proposed and in September 2020 Airbus have unveiled plans for the first commercial zero-emission aircraft fuelled by hydrogen that could be in service by 2035.Despite significant progress in our understanding of the overall impact of air traffic on climate, large uncertainties remain especially in terms of AIC and aerosol-cloud interactions resulting from soot and sulphur emissions. With net zero-carbon aviation becoming a near-term target, providing reliable estimates of the aviation non-CO2 emissions from current and future generation aircraft is now more important than ever.ObjectivesThe aim of this project is to investigate the climatic effect of aviation non-CO2 emissions from standard and future generation aircraft. The approach will involve a combination of radiation, chemistry-transport and emission-based climate models, together with simulations using the state-of-the-art UK Earth System Model. While relatively flexible to allow for your interests, the project is likely to involve:- A comprehensive assessment of changes in contrail coverage due to COVID-19 restrictions during 2020 using satellite observations. - Producing a range of scenarios for future air traffic, including the potential for a long-term shift driven by changing attitudes to flying.- Extending the existing contrail parameterisation for the UK Met Office climate model (Rap et al., 2010) to hydrogen-fuelled aircraft. - Quantifying the radiative forcing of non-CO2 aviation emissions (in particular AIC, and soot & sulphur aerosol emissions) for standard and hydrogen-fuelled aircraft. - A detailed evaluation of the role of flight route optimisation (latitude/altitude effects) for standard and hydrogen-fuelled aircraft.- Developing improved analytic response functions for aviation emissions within the Leeds-FaiR emission-based climate model (Smith et al., 2018).Potential for high impact outcomeThere are still large uncertainties in our understanding of the current aviation impact on climate and how it might evolve in the future. With access to state-of-the-art models and support from our world leading research groups, this project will address these uncertainties and will therefore have important implications for future climate projections. This will be of interest to both the general public and to policy makers working in climate mitigation and the transport sector.

该项目将使用最先进的模型和观测数据来量化当前和未来一代飞机的航空非二氧化碳排放对气候的影响。在过去的50年里，全球航空排放量增长强劲，从1970-2012年的年均增长率2.2%加速到2013-2018年的5%。虽然现有的预测预测这一趋势将持续下去，但COVID-19大流行在未来几十年的空中交通演变方面提出了新的问题（Forster et al.，2020年）。航空业已经贡献了全球人为二氧化碳排放总量的2.5%，其对气候的总体影响要大得多。目前的航空辐射强迫估计表明，空中交通对全球变暖的贡献约为5%（2-14%的不确定性范围），其中很大一部分（约60%）是由非CO2效应引起的。这些非二氧化碳影响中最大的是由航空引起的云量（AIC）（Kärcher，2018）和氮氧化物（导致臭氧和甲烷的变化），水蒸气和气溶胶的排放引起的。自2010年以来，航空业承诺到2050年将全球二氧化碳排放量与2005年相比减少一半。然而，如果我们要实现巴黎协定的长期温度目标，即将全球平均气温保持在远低于工业化前水平2摄氏度的水平，那么就需要更大力度的航空减排。最近提出了实现净零碳航空系统的新目标，空中客车公司于2020年9月公布了第一架以氢为燃料的商用零排放飞机的计划，该飞机可能会在2035年投入使用。尽管我们取得了重大进展了解空中交通对气候的整体影响，仍存在很大的不确定性，特别是在烟尘和硫排放造成的空气中碳含量和气溶胶-云相互作用方面。随着净零碳航空成为一个近期目标，提供可靠的估计，从当前和未来一代飞机的航空非CO2排放量现在比以往任何时候都更重要。ObjectivesThe本项目的目的是调查气候影响的航空非CO2排放标准和未来一代飞机。该方法将涉及辐射，化学传输和基于排放的气候模型的组合，以及使用最先进的英国地球系统模型的模拟。虽然该项目相对灵活，以满足您的兴趣，但该项目可能涉及：-使用卫星观测对2020年COVID-19限制导致的轨迹覆盖范围变化进行全面评估。- 为未来的空中交通提供一系列场景，包括通过改变对飞行的态度来推动长期转变的可能性。扩展英国气象局气候模型（Rap等人，2010年，氢燃料飞机。- 量化标准和氢燃料飞机的非CO2航空排放（特别是AIC和烟尘和硫气溶胶排放）的辐射强迫。- 详细评估标准和氢燃料飞机的飞行路线优化（纬度/高度效应）的作用。在Leeds-FaiR基于排放的气候模型中开发改进的航空排放分析响应函数（Smith等人，2018).潜在的高影响结果在我们对当前航空对气候的影响以及未来可能如何演变的理解方面仍然存在很大的不确定性。在获得最先进的模型和我们世界领先的研究小组的支持下，该项目将解决这些不确定性，因此将对未来的气候预测产生重要影响。这将对公众和从事气候减缓和运输部门工作的决策者都有意义。