Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Mosquito-Borne Diseases

模拟气候变化对蚊媒疾病的影响

• 批准号: 2608237
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Glasgow
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2608237
• 关键词: Modelling; Effects; Climate; Change; Mosquito

Climate change is having a profound effect on biotic and abiotic drivers of disease spread. However, predicting how individual diseases respond to climate change is challenging to predict and requires new predictive frameworks. For mosquito-borne diseases, where mosquito life-stages occupy different niches, drivers may affect components of the pathosystem in complex and opposing ways. For example, changes in the patterns of seasonal rainfall and temperature, can affect variable life-history traits such as development, survival, fecundity and disease transmission. These traits may combine to give rise to sharp changes of species abundance and transmission dynamics, especially under climate change extremes, which impacts on our ability to predict mosquito population dynamics and the likelihood of disease outbreaks and subsequent impact of mitigation measures.The aim of this project is to investigate the role of climate change in driving seasonal variability in mosquito populations and their diseases. The student will develop and analyse a system of state-dependent delayed differential equations in which environmental drivers affect life-history traits. The model will be analysed by extensive mathematical and numerical simulation techniques using a suitable programming language. The student will extend the mosquito model to include disease transmission to investigate how climate change will shape the likelihood of disease outbreaks in future climates. In addition, the student will validate the models against new and existing trait and spatial-temporal datasets provided by the VectorBite Research Coordination Network.

气候变化正在对疾病传播的生物和非生物驱动因素产生深远影响。然而，预测个别疾病如何应对气候变化具有挑战性，需要新的预测框架。对于蚊媒疾病，蚊子的生命阶段占据不同的生态位，驱动因素可能以复杂和相反的方式影响病理系统的组成部分。例如，季节性降雨和温度模式的变化可以影响各种生活史特征，如发育、生存、繁殖力和疾病传播。这些特征可能共同导致物种丰富度和传播动态的急剧变化，特别是在极端气候变化的情况下，这影响到我们预测蚊子种群动态和疾病爆发可能性以及随后缓解措施影响的能力。该项目的目的是调查气候变化在驱动蚊子种群及其疾病的季节变化中的作用。学生将开发和分析一个状态依赖的延迟微分方程系统，其中环境驱动因素影响生活史特征。该模型将通过广泛的数学和数值模拟技术使用合适的编程语言进行分析。学生将扩展蚊子模型，包括疾病传播，以研究气候变化如何影响未来气候中疾病爆发的可能性。此外，学生将根据VectorBite研究协调网络提供的新的和现有的特征和时空数据集验证模型。