Modelling the effects of realistic polar stratospheric clouds on past climate and future ozone

模拟现实极地平流层云对过去气候和未来臭氧的影响

基本信息

批准号：
NE/H022988/1
负责人：
Howard Roscoe
金额：
$ 24.89万
依托单位：
British Antarctic Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2011 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH022988%2F1
关键词：
Modelling effects realistic polar stratospheric

项目摘要

Climate change and its attribution to human activity is the most important global environmental challenge of the 21st Century. Stratospheric ozone depletion due to reactive chlorine from CFCs was one of the most important of the 20th Century. Any unexplained climate change would lead to severe loss of confidence in science-based advice when priorities for implementing the Kyoto Protocol or its successors are being debated. Any unexplained delay in the recovery of ozone depletion, expected because of the Montreal Protocol, could lead to similar loss of confidence by opinion formers and policy makers. Here we propose to investigate a large unexplained change in Antarctic climate and a strong possibility of delayed recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, and proffer explanations. The largest warming observed in the troposphere in the last 30 years occurred in the mid- troposphere in Antarctic winter. This recent discovery cannot yet be explained - computer modelling with increased greenhouse gases shows too small a warming - but recent work has implicated increased Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs). We propose to test the hypothesis that a combination of increased greenhouse gases and increased PSCs has caused the warming. We would conduct a thorough modelling study, after inserting a comprehensive PSC growth scheme, and an improved calculation of the stratospheric cold points induced by atmospheric waves above mountains, into the premier UK atmospheric model. The improved model will also be used to forecast the future evolution of the ozone hole. During the 21st Century, CFCs are expected to reduce. But greenhouse gases will continue to increase, which will act to cool the stratosphere and so produce more PSCs. This latter process may significantly delay the expected recovery of the ozone hole. This proposal combines world leaders in PSC and atmospheric chemistry modelling at Leeds and Cambridge Universities with BAS expertise in Antarctic climate attribution and publicity, to create an exceptionally strong team. This work should be done now before the unexplained change in Antarctic climate comes to the attention of the wider media and public.

气候变化及其对人类活动的归因是21世纪最重要的全球环境挑战。由于CFC的反应性氯导致的平流层臭氧耗竭是20世纪最重要的之一。当实施京都协议的优先事项或其继任者正在争论时，任何无法解释的气候变化都将导致对基于科学建议的信心严重丧失。由于蒙特利尔协议，预期的臭氧耗竭恢复的任何无法解释的延迟都可能导致舆论成立者和政策制定者的信心丧失。在这里，我们建议研究南极气候发生的巨大无法解释的变化，并有很大的可能性延迟南极臭氧孔的恢复和解释。在过去30年中，在对流层中观察到的最大变暖发生在南极冬季的对流层中。最近的发现尚无法解释 - 随着温室气体增加的计算机建模表明，变暖太小 - 但最近的工作暗示了极地平流层云增加（PSC）。我们建议检验以下假设：增加温室气体和PSC增加的组合已导致变暖。在插入了全面的PSC增长方案之后，我们将进行一项彻底的建模研究，并改善了由山脉上方大气波引起的平流层冷点的计算，并将其纳入英国大气模型。改进的模型还将用于预测臭氧孔的未来演变。在21世纪，预计CFC将减少。但是温室气体将继续增加，这将起作用以冷却平流层，从而产生更多的PSC。后一个过程可能会大大延迟臭氧孔的预期回收率。该提案结合了利兹和剑桥大学的PSC和大气化学建模的世界领导者与南极气候归因和宣传方面的BAS专业知识，以创建一个异常强大的团队。这项工作应该在南极气候的无法解释的变化引起更广泛的媒体和公众的注意之前完成。