Modelling the effects of realistic polar stratospheric clouds on past climate and future ozone

模拟现实极地平流层云对过去气候和未来臭氧的影响

• 批准号: NE/H022988/1
• 负责人: Howard Roscoe
• 金额: $ 24.89万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH022988%2F1
• 关键词: Modelling; effects; realistic; polar; stratospheric

Climate change and its attribution to human activity is the most important global environmental challenge of the 21st Century. Stratospheric ozone depletion due to reactive chlorine from CFCs was one of the most important of the 20th Century. Any unexplained climate change would lead to severe loss of confidence in science-based advice when priorities for implementing the Kyoto Protocol or its successors are being debated. Any unexplained delay in the recovery of ozone depletion, expected because of the Montreal Protocol, could lead to similar loss of confidence by opinion formers and policy makers. Here we propose to investigate a large unexplained change in Antarctic climate and a strong possibility of delayed recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, and proffer explanations. The largest warming observed in the troposphere in the last 30 years occurred in the mid- troposphere in Antarctic winter. This recent discovery cannot yet be explained - computer modelling with increased greenhouse gases shows too small a warming - but recent work has implicated increased Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs). We propose to test the hypothesis that a combination of increased greenhouse gases and increased PSCs has caused the warming. We would conduct a thorough modelling study, after inserting a comprehensive PSC growth scheme, and an improved calculation of the stratospheric cold points induced by atmospheric waves above mountains, into the premier UK atmospheric model. The improved model will also be used to forecast the future evolution of the ozone hole. During the 21st Century, CFCs are expected to reduce. But greenhouse gases will continue to increase, which will act to cool the stratosphere and so produce more PSCs. This latter process may significantly delay the expected recovery of the ozone hole. This proposal combines world leaders in PSC and atmospheric chemistry modelling at Leeds and Cambridge Universities with BAS expertise in Antarctic climate attribution and publicity, to create an exceptionally strong team. This work should be done now before the unexplained change in Antarctic climate comes to the attention of the wider media and public.

气候变化及其对人类活动的影响是21世纪最重要的全球环境挑战。由CFCs中的活性氯引起的平流层臭氧消耗是20世纪世纪最重要的问题之一。在辩论执行《京都议定书》或其后续文书的优先事项时，任何无法解释的气候变化都会导致人们对基于科学的建议严重丧失信心。预计由于《蒙特利尔议定书》而在恢复臭氧消耗方面出现的任何原因不明的拖延都可能导致舆论界和决策者失去信心。在这里，我们建议调查一个大的原因不明的变化，在南极气候和南极臭氧洞的延迟恢复的可能性很大，并提供解释。近30年来对流层观测到的最大增暖发生在南极冬季对流层中部。最近的这一发现还无法解释--温室气体增加的计算机模型显示变暖太小--但最近的工作表明极地平流层云（PSC）增加了。我们建议测试的假设，增加温室气体和增加PSC的组合导致了变暖。我们将进行一个彻底的建模研究后，插入一个全面的PSC增长计划，并改进计算的平流层冷点引起的大气波以上的山脉，到总理英国大气模型。改进后的模型还将用于预测臭氧洞的未来演变。在世纪，预计CFC将减少。但温室气体将继续增加，这将起到冷却平流层的作用，从而产生更多的PSC。后一个过程可能会大大推迟臭氧洞的预期恢复。该提案将利兹大学和剑桥大学PSC和大气化学建模领域的世界领先者与BAS在南极气候归因和宣传方面的专业知识相结合，以创建一个非常强大的团队。这项工作应该在南极气候的不明变化引起更广泛的媒体和公众的注意之前完成。

项目成果

Polar stratospheric clouds initiated by mountain waves in a global chemistry-climate model: a missing piece in fully modelling polar stratospheric ozone depletion

全球化学气候模型中由山波引发的极地平流层云：完全模拟极地平流层臭氧消耗的缺失部分

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Orr A

A decadal satellite record of gravity wave activity in the lower stratosphere to study polar stratospheric cloud formation

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-2901-2017
• 发表时间: 2017-02-24
• 期刊: ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Hoffmann, Lars;Spang, Reinhold;Stein, Olaf
• 通讯作者: Stein, Olaf

Inclusion of mountain wave-induced cooling for the formation of PSCs over the Antarctic Peninsula in a chemistry-climate model

将南极半岛上空波浪引起的冷却作用纳入化学气候模型中

• DOI: 10.5194/acpd-14-18277-2014
• 发表时间: 2014
• 作者: Orr A

Inclusion of mountain-wave-induced cooling for the formation of PSCs over the Antarctic Peninsula in a chemistry-climate model

将南极半岛上山波引起的 PSC 形成冷却纳入化学气候模型

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-15-1071-2015
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Orr A

A multi-wavelength classification method for polar stratospheric cloud types using infrared limb spectra

利用红外临边光谱对极地平流层云类型进行多波长分类的方法

• DOI: 10.5194/amt-9-3619-2016
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Spang R