Family Structure Dynamics and Child Outcomes

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究将分析美国家庭结构动态和就业动态对儿童结局的影响。鉴于美国等当代社会离婚、再婚、同居和非婚生育的频率，了解这些事件影响儿童的机制对科学和政策至关重要。本研究将(1)结合母亲和儿童的视角，利用1979年全国青年纵向调查队列母子档案中丰富的纵向历史资料，对妇女和儿童在关系和父亲地位之间的转变进行人口统计学分析。(2)对婚姻同居动态和就业动态对子女结局的影响进行“近似决策规则”分析。关注的儿童结果包括认知、社会和情感发展、教育进步、健康和早期成人结果，如生育、就业、工资和婚姻动态。儿童结果的动态生产函数将与解释儿童暴露于不同婚姻安排的简化形式函数联合估计。(3)明确并估计婚姻和同居动态、女性劳动力供给及其对子女结局影响的行为模型，并获得模型参数的结构估计。该模型将允许通过效用函数中的相互作用，以及通过前瞻性行为，从儿童结果直接反馈到婚姻和就业决策。这些决定和结果对女性工资以及现任、前任和潜在未来伴侣收入的依赖，以及以婚姻状况和/或就业为条件的公共项目（如贫困家庭临时援助）的福利的作用，都被明确地建模。对偏好和生产函数参数的估计将有可能详细描述婚姻和就业动态影响儿童的机制，实现的儿童结果影响随后的婚姻和就业决策的机制，以及政策对婚姻和就业动态和儿童结果的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study will analyze the effects of family structure dynamics and employment dynamics on child outcomes in the U.S. Given the frequency of divorce, remarriage, cohabitation, and out-of-wedlock childbearing in contemporary societies such as the U.S., understanding the mechanisms through which these events affect children is important for science and policy. The study will (1) Conduct a demographic analysis of transitions of women and children among relationship and fatherhood statuses, integrating mother and child perspectives, using rich longitudinal histories from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort mother-child file. (2) Conduct an "approximate decision rule" analysis of the impact of marital and cohabitation dynamics and employment dynamics on child outcomes. The child outcomes of interest include cognitive, social, and emotional development, educational advancement, health, and early adult outcomes such as childbearing, employment, wages, and marital dynamics. A dynamic production function for child outcomes will be estimated jointly with reduced form functions explaining exposure of a child to different marital arrangements. (3) Specify and estimate a behavioral model of marital and cohabitation dynamics, female labor supply, and their effects on child outcomes, and obtain structural estimates of the parameters of the model. The model will allow direct feedback from child outcomes to the marital and employment decisions via interactions in the utility function, as well as indirectly via forward-looking behavior. The dependence of these decisions and outcomes on female wages and current, previous and potential future partner's incomes is explicitly modeled, as are the role of benefits from public programs that are conditioned on marital status and/or employment, such as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. Estimates of the preference and production function parameters will make it possible to provide a detailed characterization of the mechanisms through which marital and employment dynamics affect children, the mechanisms through which realized child outcomes affect subsequent marital and employment decisions, and the effects of policy on marital and employment dynamics and child outcomes.