Family Structure Dynamics and Child Outcomes

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study will analyze the effects of family structure dynamics and employment dynamics on child outcomes in the U.S. Given the frequency of divorce, remarriage, cohabitation, and out-of-wedlock childbearing in contemporary societies such as the U.S., understanding the mechanisms through which these events affect children is important for science and policy. The study will (1) Conduct a demographic analysis of transitions of women and children among relationship and fatherhood statuses, integrating mother and child perspectives, using rich longitudinal histories from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort mother-child file. (2) Conduct an "approximate decision rule" analysis of the impact of marital and cohabitation dynamics and employment dynamics on child outcomes. The child outcomes of interest include cognitive, social, and emotional development, educational advancement, health, and early adult outcomes such as childbearing, employment, wages, and marital dynamics. A dynamic production function for child outcomes will be estimated jointly with reduced form functions explaining exposure of a child to different marital arrangements. (3) Specify and estimate a behavioral model of marital and cohabitation dynamics, female labor supply, and their effects on child outcomes, and obtain structural estimates of the parameters of the model. The model will allow direct feedback from child outcomes to the marital and employment decisions via interactions in the utility function, as well as indirectly via forward-looking behavior. The dependence of these decisions and outcomes on female wages and current, previous and potential future partner's incomes is explicitly modeled, as are the role of benefits from public programs that are conditioned on marital status and/or employment, such as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. Estimates of the preference and production function parameters will make it possible to provide a detailed characterization of the mechanisms through which marital and employment dynamics affect children, the mechanisms through which realized child outcomes affect subsequent marital and employment decisions, and the effects of policy on marital and employment dynamics and child outcomes.